John Curtice warns Labour’s pre-election caution could be its ‘undoing’ in power

Labour’s caution ahead of the general election could be its “undoing” if it enters government, limiting its “freedom of action” on areas like tax and spending, leading pollster John Curtice has warned.

Appearing on the latest episode of the new We Are Labour podcast, Curtice also said “the impression that some of us have… is we suspect that Labour are being too cautious about their chances”.

Highlighting that Labour is on average 19 points ahead in the polls, Curtice said: “Even if you take the worst of the polling errors, i.e. the ‘92 one, and say that’s going to be repeated again, Labour are still ten points ahead.”

The pollster told the podcast: “I think the question that we should be asking of Labour is whether or not the caution that it is exercising this side of the election, particularly with respect to taxation and spending, is at risk of being its undoing the other side of the election.”

Curtice noted that the current fiscal position is “very tight” but added: “I think Labour will be elected because people are looking for them to reverse the fact that we’ve got high levels of taxation but lousy public services and an appalling economy. And if that isn’t turned around quickly, Labour will be in a difficult position.

“And if they have not tried to clear the ground by saying: “Well actually, we think we may have to do some difficult things”… That caution that Labour have – no distance on Brexit, no distance on tax and spend – does constrain its freedom of action potentially the other side of the election.”

Elsewhere in the interview with host Dan Greef, the veteran pollster cautioned against expecting many “headline-grabbing Labour gains” in this year’s local elections, telling the podcast: “Probably the biggest plum that Labour might hope to pick up is Dudley.”

He also warned against reading too much into the results in the run-up to the general election, stressing: “Local elections should not be used to project what the result of the general election would be.”

The latest episode of  the We Are Labour podcast, which is hosted by Dan Greef, is out later today.

Read our coverage of the 2024 local elections here.

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