YouGov MRP poll: Seats with most marginal races for Labour revealed

A string of seats last won by Labour under former Prime Minister Tony Blair are expected to be among the most marginal Labour gains at the next general election, according to the latest polling from YouGov.

The pollster’s MRP poll and analysis suggests Labour would win 403 seats when voters if a general election were held tomorrow, with the Conservatives tumbling to just 155.

Should such a result be replicated at an election, it would give the Conservatives their worst defeat since 1906.

Labour, with their third best haul of seats in the House of Commons after 1997 and 2001, would have a majority of 154, gaining more than 200 seats versus the 2019 election.

According to the poll, the most marginal battlegrounds of the election include a string of seats that last elected Labour in 2005 under Tony Blair.

These include Gravesham, Finchley and Golders Green, Redditch, Forest of Dean and Cannock Chase.

However, traditionally Conservative seats are also among those expected to fall to Labour come election day.

Cities of London and Westminster, the new Penrith and Solway constituency, Chelsea and Fulham, Hexham, Broxbourne and Worthing West – currently the seat of Father of the House Sir Peter Bottomley – are all forecast to be Labour gains by the MRP poll.

In Scotland, the SNP is forecast to lose a number of seats to Labour by a narrow margin, including Livingston, Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch, East Renfrewshire and Glenrothes and Mid Fife.

Our analysis suggests Scotland has the second highest proportion of projected gains with margins of less than 5%.

Around a third of seats predicted to turn red in Scotland, the East of England and the South East have a margin of predicted victory, even on strong current Labour pollling, of less than 5%.

Full list of forecast Labour gains by margin

Constituency Expected result Margin of victory over Tory or SNP
Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch Labour gain from SNP 0%
Broxbourne Labour gain from Conservatives 0%
Bromley and Biggin Hill Labour gain from Conservatives 0%
Harwich and North Essex Labour gain from Conservatives 0%
Monmouthshire Labour gain from Conservatives 0%
Basildon and Billericay Labour gain from Conservatives 1%
Croydon South Labour gain from Conservatives 1%
Finchley and Golders Green Labour gain from Conservatives 1%
Beverley and Holderness Labour gain from Conservatives 1%
Ashford Labour gain from Conservatives 1%
Banbury Labour gain from Conservatives 1%
Ribble Valley Labour gain from Conservatives 1%
Redditch Labour gain from Conservatives 1%
Livingston Labour gain from SNP 1%
Forest of Dean Labour gain from Conservatives 2%
North East Somerset and Hanham Labour gain from Conservatives 2%
East Renfrewshire Labour gain from SNP 2%
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh Labour gain from SNP 2%
Chatham and Aylesford Labour gain from Conservatives 2%
North West Leicestershire Labour gain from Conservatives 2%
Tamworth Labour gain from Conservatives 3%
North West Cambridgeshire Labour gain from Conservatives 3%
Romford Labour gain from Conservatives 3%
Staffordshire Moorlands Labour gain from Conservatives 3%
Cannock Chase Labour gain from Conservatives 3%
Great Yarmouth Labour gain from Conservatives 3%
Glenrothes and Mid Fife Labour gain from SNP 3%
Edinburgh North and Leith Labour gain from SNP 3%
North Warwickshire and Bedworth Labour gain from Conservatives 3%
South Derbyshire Labour gain from Conservatives 3%
Earley and Woodley Labour gain from Conservatives 3%
Kettering Labour gain from Conservatives 4%
Folkestone and Hythe Labour gain from Conservatives 4%
Morecambe and Lunesdale Labour gain from Conservatives 4%
Glasgow North East Labour gain from SNP 4%
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock Labour gain from SNP 4%
Lowestoft Labour gain from Conservatives 4%
Portsmouth North Labour gain from Conservatives 4%
Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Labour gain from Conservatives 4%
Bracknell Labour gain from Conservatives 4%
York Outer Labour gain from Conservatives 5%
Kilmarnock and Loudoun Labour gain from SNP 5%
Chelsea and Fulham Labour gain from Conservatives 5%
Harrow East Labour gain from Conservatives 5%
East Kilbride and Strathaven Labour gain from SNP 5%
Hexham Labour gain from Conservatives 5%
Amber Valley Labour gain from Conservatives 5%
Stourbridge Labour gain from Conservatives 5%
Paisley and Renfrewshire South Labour gain from SNP 5%
St Austell and Newquay Labour gain from Conservatives 5%
Buckingham and Bletchley Labour gain from Conservatives 5%
Sherwood Forest Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Southend West and Leigh Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Bexleyheath and Crayford Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Cities of London and Westminster Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Stafford Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
South Basildon and East Thurrock Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Worthing West Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Dartford Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Gravesham Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Rugby Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Weston-super-Mare Labour gain from Conservatives 6%
Hemel Hempstead Labour gain from Conservatives 7%
Penrith and Solway Labour gain from Conservatives 7%
Basingstoke Labour gain from Conservatives 7%
Stoke-on-Trent South Labour gain from Conservatives 7%
Mid and South Pembrokeshire Labour gain from Conservatives 7%
Hitchin Labour gain from Conservatives 7%
Glasgow East Labour gain from SNP 7%
Harlow Labour gain from Conservatives 8%
West Dunbartonshire Labour gain from SNP 8%
Colchester Labour gain from Conservatives 8%
Glasgow South West Labour gain from SNP 8%
Swindon North Labour gain from Conservatives 8%
Gillingham and Rainham Labour gain from Conservatives 8%
Northampton South Labour gain from Conservatives 8%
North East Derbyshire Labour gain from Conservatives 9%
Burton and Uttoxeter Labour gain from Conservatives 9%
Pendle and Clitheroe Labour gain from Conservatives 9%
Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West Labour gain from SNP 9%
Mansfield Labour gain from Conservatives 9%
Southend East and Rochford Labour gain from Conservatives 9%
Midlothian Labour gain from SNP 9%
Wellingborough and Rushden Labour gain from Conservatives 9%
Rochester and Strood Labour gain from Conservatives 9%
Bournemouth West Labour gain from Conservatives 9%
Nuneaton Labour gain from Conservatives 9%
Dudley Labour gain from Conservatives 10%
Halesowen Labour gain from Conservatives 10%
Altrincham and Sale West Labour gain from Conservatives 10%
Welwyn Hatfield Labour gain from Conservatives 10%
Macclesfield Labour gain from Conservatives 11%
Bangor Aberconwy Labour gain from Conservatives 11%
Na h-Eileanan an Iar Labour gain from SNP 11%
Dunfermline and Dollar Labour gain from SNP 12%
Plymouth Moor View Labour gain from Conservatives 12%
Airdrie and Shotts Labour gain from SNP 12%
Clwyd East Labour gain from Conservatives 12%
Dover and Deal Labour gain from Conservatives 12%
Bridgend Labour gain from Conservatives 12%
Selby Labour gain from Conservatives 13%
Bolton West Labour gain from Conservatives 13%
Stockton West Labour gain from Conservatives 13%
Shrewsbury Labour gain from Conservatives 13%
Rushcliffe Labour gain from Conservatives 14%
Crawley Labour gain from Conservatives 14%
Wrexham Labour gain from Conservatives 14%
Carlisle Labour gain from Conservatives 14%
Camborne and Redruth Labour gain from Conservatives 15%
Coatbridge and Bellshill Labour gain from SNP 15%
Thurrock Labour gain from Conservatives 15%
Bournemouth East Labour gain from Conservatives 15%
Clwyd North Labour gain from Conservatives 15%
Ossett and Denby Dale Labour gain from Conservatives 15%
Bathgate and Linlithgow Labour gain from SNP 15%
Gloucester Labour gain from Conservatives 15%
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland Labour gain from Conservatives 16%
Watford Labour gain from Conservatives 16%
Scarborough and Whitby Labour gain from Conservatives 16%
Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke Labour gain from SNP 16%
Bassetlaw Labour gain from Conservatives 16%
Bishop Auckland Labour gain from Conservatives 16%
Erewash Labour gain from Conservatives 16%
South Ribble Labour gain from Conservatives 17%
Colne Valley Labour gain from Conservatives 17%
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme Labour gain from Conservatives 17%
Penistone and Stocksbridge Labour gain from Conservatives 17%
Milton Keynes Central Labour gain from Conservatives 17%
Hamilton and Clyde Valley Labour gain from SNP 17%
East Worthing and Shoreham Labour gain from Conservatives 17%
Ashfield Labour gain from Conservatives 17%
Milton Keynes North Labour gain from Conservatives 17%
Loughborough Labour gain from Conservatives 18%
Stevenage Labour gain from Conservatives 18%
Uxbridge and South Ruislip Labour gain from Conservatives 18%
Southport Labour gain from Conservatives 18%
Newcastle-under-Lyme Labour gain from Conservatives 18%
Chipping Barnet Labour gain from Conservatives 18%
Glasgow North Labour gain from SNP 18%
East Thanet Labour gain from Conservatives 18%
Filton and Bradley Stoke Labour gain from Conservatives 19%
Telford Labour gain from Conservatives 19%
Truro and Falmouth Labour gain from Conservatives 19%
Leeds South West and Morley Labour gain from Conservatives 19%
Vale of Glamorgan Labour gain from Conservatives 19%
Scunthorpe Labour gain from Conservatives 19%
Spen Valley Labour gain from Conservatives 20%
Rossendale and Darwen Labour gain from Conservatives 20%
Worcester Labour gain from Conservatives 20%
Norwich North Labour gain from Conservatives 20%
Blackpool North and Fleetwood Labour gain from Conservatives 20%
Wolverhampton North East Labour gain from Conservatives 20%
Stroud Labour gain from Conservatives 20%
Barrow and Furness Labour gain from Conservatives 21%
Rutherglen Labour gain from SNP 21%
Shipley Labour gain from Conservatives 21%
Wycombe Labour gain from Conservatives 21%
Broxtowe Labour gain from Conservatives 21%
Stoke-on-Trent North Labour gain from Conservatives 22%
Hendon Labour gain from Conservatives 22%
Corby and East Northamptonshire Labour gain from Conservatives 22%
Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes Labour gain from Conservatives 23%
Rother Valley Labour gain from Conservatives 23%
Eltham and Chislehurst Labour gain from Conservatives 23%
Hastings and Rye Labour gain from Conservatives 23%
Calder Valley Labour gain from Conservatives 23%
Lancaster and Wyre Labour gain from Conservatives 23%
Swindon South Labour gain from Conservatives 24%
Darlington Labour gain from Conservatives 24%
Leeds North West Labour gain from Conservatives 24%
Redcar Labour gain from Conservatives 25%
Keighley and Ilkley Labour gain from Conservatives 25%
Ipswich Labour gain from Conservatives 25%
Tipton and Wednesbury Labour gain from Conservatives 25%
Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice Labour gain from Conservatives 26%
Bolsover Labour gain from Conservatives 27%
Derby North Labour gain from Conservatives 27%
Wolverhampton West Labour gain from Conservatives 27%
Southampton Itchen Labour gain from Conservatives 27%
Mid Cheshire Labour gain from Conservatives 27%
Crewe and Nantwich Labour gain from Conservatives 27%
Northampton North Labour gain from Conservatives 27%
Wakefield and Rothwell Labour gain from Conservatives 28%
West Bromwich Labour gain from Conservatives 28%
Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor Labour gain from Conservatives 28%
Hyndburn Labour gain from Conservatives 28%
Peterborough Labour gain from Conservatives 28%
Gedling Labour gain from Conservatives 29%
Burnley Labour gain from Conservatives 29%
Blackpool South Labour gain from Conservatives 29%
Chingford and Woodford Green Labour gain from Conservatives 29%
High Peak Labour gain from Conservatives 29%
Lincoln Labour gain from Conservatives 29%
Walsall and Bloxwich Labour gain from Conservatives 29%
Bury North Labour gain from Conservatives 30%
Whitehaven and Workington Labour gain from Conservatives 30%
Bolton North East Labour gain from Conservatives 30%
Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy Labour gain from SNP 30%
Bury South Labour gain from Conservatives 31%
Stoke-on-Trent Central Labour gain from Conservatives 31%
Birmingham Northfield Labour gain from Conservatives 32%
Lothian East Labour gain from SNP 33%
Leigh and Atherton Labour gain from Conservatives 34%

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