Local elections 2024: ‘Key council tests for Labour in each region of England’

Last year’s local elections saw plenty of Labour celebrations in areas like Medway, Swindon, Plymouth and Stoke-on-Trent as the dramatic evening saw Labour overtaking the Conservatives as the largest party in local government for the first time in 20 years. 

It’s unlikely the results this year will be as dramatic; there are only 107 elections – compared to the massive 230 last year. Of those, there are only 16 Conservative-controlled councils up for election. Labour is defending many more councils this time around. 

The major expected shifts are within the current no overall control councils, where changes are more likely, especially because many of them are currently minority councils where a few seats could make a major difference to political control (including 22 Conservative minority councils).

With that context, let’s dive into the ones to watch and tests for Labour.

East of England

• Thurrock remains a battleground between Labour and the Conservatives, with 15 seats up for election. With an 8% council tax rise following the local council declaring bankruptcy, residents are sure to have some strong feelings at this election. 
• In Norwich, a third of the council’s total seats are up for grabs. The Green Party holds the second highest number of seats – and local Labour infighting might give them a chance to make more gains.

North East

In the North East, very few councils are set to change hands. Hartlepool – a bellwether seat for years now – has been in no overall control since 2019, and Labour needs only two more seats to put them in full control of the council.

North West

• There are several interesting contests in the North West where Labour aims to challenge Conservative dominance or secure majorities. 
• In Pendle, resignations across the Labour Party have changed the calculation for Labour and made the path to an overall majority more complicated.

South East

• The South East has the largest number of elections (28 this year), and there are several that could change hands. Councils like Hart and Wokingham are poised for close contests, and Labour is defending a tiny majority in Crawley, a council the party has only had majority control over since 2022.
• Hastings is definitely one to watch: differences between the national and local party led to the resignation of several Labour councillors from the party earlier this year, combined with the rise of the Greens and the fact that it is having to deliver significant savings to avoid issuing a section 114 notice.

South West

• The South West sees Labour defending its majority in Swindon against Conservative resurgence, while Stroud and Bristol present intriguing battles between Labour, Greens and others.
• In Bristol, the Greens and Labour are practically neck and neck. Eyes will be on this contest because the Greens taking majority control, or at least performing well, could indicate the possibility of success at the upcoming parliamentary election for a Bristol constituency.

West Midlands

• In Redditch, the Conservatives have a majority of two and the Labour Party is not far behind. The whole council is up for election, so both parties will be aiming for a majority. 
• Dudley is having a whole council election following boundary changes. Labour has been steadily winning seats in the most recent elections, so this is definitely one to watch. 
• Labour and the Greens in Worcester are currently governing in coalition with a joint leadership and only a couple of seats between them. This one is hard to call with both Labour and the Greens picking up seats in recent years. Most definitely, one to watch.
• Cannock Chase is a tight contest where Labour and the Conservatives are neck and neck.

Yorkshire

• Yorkshire and the Humber features battles in Hull, Calderdale, Sheffield and Rotherham, where Labour seeks to maintain or strengthen its control.

East Midlands

• Lincoln, the only council up in the East Midlands, is likely to stay under Labour’s control, having held the majority control for 13 years (since 2011).

Combined authority elections

Particular attention will be on Conservative defences in regions like the West Midlands. With Andy Street’s prominent public profile, the mayoral contest carries significant weight for its residents. A victory here could be interpreted as a symbolic triumph for the winning party.

Trust

It’s also worth pausing to consider what impact a building lack of trust might have on voter turnout and loyalty to party in these elections. Voter turnout for mayoral and local elections has historically been lower than that in general elections, but for us, local elections are the most important set of elections of all because they are the ones that make the most difference to the places where we live and work and to our experience of public services. 

Our recent polling revealed a large majority of people do not trust the central government to act in the interests of their communities – with just a quarter (25%) of people over 18 in England having faith in ministers to act in the best interest of people in their local area. 

And while local councillors are trusted more to act in the interests of people in local areas (43%) than other politicians, they are not trusted as widely as police (55%), community groups (68%) and local businesses (61%). Whoever makes gains on May 2nd, it is risky to accept this lack of trust as inevitable, and serious thought should be given to reversing this trend. 

Read more of our coverage of the 2024 local elections here.

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