Inside Labour’s local election campaign: Ellie Reeves on where to spend polling day and the key contests to watch

Labour’s deputy national campaign co-ordinator Ellie Reeves has dubbed the West Midlands “the place to be on polling day” for party activists, but warned dislodging a prominent Tory metro mayor in the region or in Tees Valley would be “very difficult”.

In an exclusive interview with LabourList in the final days of the local election campaign, Reeves set out what to expect in a series of metro mayoral contests, the areas where Labour most hopes to see progress at council level, and where activists are most needed for a final push.

Where Labour hopes for local election gains

Reeves, who joined the shadow cabinet last September after being promoted to a new deputy campaign co-ordinator role, said Labour had run a “really strong campaign”.

She praised some of the party’s digital campaigning in particular, as well as “of course our members who are our biggest asset and have been out in their droves”.

Leading election experts Collin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have predicted the Tories could lose up to 500 seats, and Labour could make around 300 gains.

Reeves declined to put a figure on the approximate number of seat gains senior Labour figures would be happy with, saying the party had a different barometer for success.

“What we really will be looking at is progress that we’re making in the areas that we need to win a general election,” said Reeves. “Rather than it being the numbers of council seats, it’s where we’re making those gains.”

Reeves cited examples like Cannock Chase, Redditch and Dudley in the West Midlands, Harlow and Thurrock in eastern England, and Milton Keynes and Rushmoor in the South East.

Party plays down prospect of by-election-style swings

While Labour’s methods have “worked in the by-elections” and are “working again” for this set of elections, the party does not expect to see the “sort of big swing” seen in recent parliamentary by-elections.

In February, Labour won the Wellingborough constituency with a 28.5% swing from the Tories, the second biggest Tory-to-Labour swing in any Westminster by-election since the Second World War.

“Those sort of things don’t tend to play out in local elections, particularly when you have sort-of-independents standing.

“We’re fighting for every vote and there’s absolutely no complacency in the campaign.”

‘We’d need a swing of 23% to win in Tees Valley’

The polls suggest a tight race between Labour and the Tories in high-profile metro mayoral contests in the West Midlands and Tees Valley, with the Conservatives narrowly ahead in both in the most recent YouGov polling.

Reeves said winning Tees Valley was “a really hard one for us” and the West Midlands would be a “close contest” but also “very difficult”.

“In Tees Valley, we’d need a swing of 23% to win that, which is far higher than any swing we’d need to win a general election.”

A recent study by leading election experts suggested Labour would need a 13.8% Labour-Tory swing nationally to gain a working majority of around 30 seats. In 2021, Houchen was re-elected in Tees Valley with 72.8% of the vote.

Reeves said there had been little mention of the Tory brand in some of metro mayoral candidates Andy Street’s and Ben Houchen’s campaigns, suggesting both were pitching themselves effectively as independents.

“It feels a bit like we’ve been running a campaign against the Tories, and so have Ben Houchen and Andy Street.”

Polls suggest both are also “outperforming the Conservative brand”, she added. Both mayors remaining in power wouldn’t be “quite the victory for the Tories that they think it might be.”

West Midlands ‘certainly where I’ll be on polling day’

While dislodging Street, a former John Lewis chief, would be “a tough one”, she urged any readers wondering where best to head on the final two days of the campaign to “get to the West Midlands”.

“It’s one where it would be brilliant if we could win it, although we have no expectation of being able to given Andy Street distancing himself from the Tories.

“But if readers have got any time on polling day, then the West Midlands is very much the the place to be and certainly where I’ll be on polling day.”

East Midlands a ‘better barometer’ of Labour success

The new East Midlands mayoralty will be a “better barometer” of the national mood, Reeves said, and notably includes a “large number of target seats for us at the general election”.

With so many battlegrounds and Labour fighting for a new role rather than against an incumbent, it is a “better indication of how you might fare in a general election”, she added.

Labour’s candidate in the area, which includes Derby, Derbyshire, Nottingham and Nottinghamshire, is Claire Ward, a former Watford MP.

Signs ‘good’ in North East

Another election attracting significant attention is the race to become the first ever metro mayor of the north east, as it pits left-wing ex-Labour North of Tyne mayor Jamie Driscoll against Labour candidate Kim McGuinness.

A recent poll by More in Common put Labour very narrowly ahead, with McGuinness on 25% to Driscoll’s 33% – and Reform UK notably third on 14%.

“Our data from there is good, and we’ve got a fantastic candidate in Kim McGuinness,” said Reeves.

“So there’s lots to be optimistic about with that one.”

Read more of our coverage of the 2024 local elections here.

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