Ipsos MRP: Labour projected to win 256-seat majority and take Islington North

Labour could win a 256-seat majority at the election, according to a new mega-poll, with the party projected to win 453 seats ahead of the Conservatives on 115.

The MRP analysis from Ipsos – its first of the 2024 election campaign – also projected that Labour would win Islington North ahead of former party leader and independent candidate Jeremy Corbyn and that Reform UK leader Nigel Farage would emerge victorious in Clacton.

The research suggested that high-profile Tories including Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt and Jacob Rees-Mogg could be at risk of losing their seats, though the pollster said it “still urge[s] caution when interpreting constituency-level outcomes”.

Ipsos said Labour could win 453 seats ahead of the Tories on 115 and the Liberal Democrats on 38. It projected that the SNP could take 15 seats, Plaid Cymru four, Reform UK three and the Greens three.

But the pollster found that 117 seats have a wining margin of less than five points and are “too close to call”. It found that the Tories are second in 50 of these seats, Labour in 43 and the Lib Dems in 13, which Ipsos said demonstrates “small changes in the parties’ performance could still lead to big changes in the final outcome”.

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The polling company’s lower and upper range estimates for Labour’s seat total were 439 and 462, while its estimates for the Conservatives ranged from 99 to 123 and the Lib Dems from 35 to 48.

Its seat total range for the Green Party was notable, from zero to four seats – with the pollster finding that the party is “making headway” in Labour-held Bristol Central and Tory-held North Herefordshire and part of a “close race” in Waveney, but is “struggling” to hold on to Brighton Pavilion, where it found Labour leading.

The MRP projection – which used a large-scale online survey of nearly 20,000 participants and population data at a constituency level – estimated that the SNP could win between 13 and 23 seats, with the pollster finding that the party could lose 29 of their 2019 notional seats to Labour and three to the Liberal Democrats.

The implied national vote shares from Ipsos’ model were Labour on 43%, the Conservatives on 25%, Reform UK on 12%, the Lib Dems on 10%, the Greens on 6%, the SNP on 3%, Plaid Cymru on 1% and Other on 1%.

READ MORE: UK general election poll tracker: Daily roundup on how polls look for Labour

Ipsos UK and Ireland chief executive Kelly Beaver said: “Ipsos’ new MRP, based on data collected from our online random probability KnowledgePanel, supports the trends that suggest Labour is on course to win the 2024 election with a very healthy majority, while the Conservatives are facing the potential for record losses.

“Labour is increasing its 2019 vote share across the country, especially in Scotland and the North East, while the Conservatives are losing votes in all regions – especially in the East and South of England, and across the Midlands.”

She added: “Nevertheless, this is just a snapshot of people’s current voting intentions, and there is still time for things to change. As with any survey and any model, there are uncertainties to take into account, such as margins of error, the impact of unique local dynamics and sensitivities to the data that goes in.

READ MORE: Survation MRP poll: Labour projected to win 262-seat majority and Tories 72 seats

“There are also 117 seats that are currently too close to call, all of which means that small changes to the parties’ performance could still make significant changes to the number of seats they get.

“But this data, in line with most of the evidence that we have seen both in the run-up to this election and since the campaign started, in terms of the mood of the nation and real election results in local elections and by-elections, suggests that the British political scene could be heading for yet another significant shift.”

LabourList has been rounding up the latest polling news in our general election tracker, publishing the results of the main UK pollsters as they are released during the campaign. You can keep up to date with the latest here.

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