New MRP poll gives Labour a big majority – and nearly 100 seats more than Blair

A fresh MRP poll has forecast Labour winning a record-breaking majority next month, with nearly 100 more seats than Tony Blair won in the 1997 landslide.

A Savanta mega-poll for the Telegraph has forecast a near total collapse in the Conservative vote, with Labour taking 516 seats to the Tories’ 53.

This would give Starmer Labour’s largest ever election win in terms of seat numbers – with nearly 100 more than the 418 won in 1997 and 412 in 2001.

The Conservatives would be nearly pushed into third place in seat count, with the Liberal Democrats forecast to get 50 seats.

Rishi Sunak would also become the first sitting Prime Minister to lose his seat at a general election if the poll were reflected in the election result.

The implied popular vote share is as follows:

• Labour 44%
• Conservatives 23%
• Liberal Democrats 12%
• Reform 13%
• Green Party 4%
• SNP 3%

An earlier MRP poll today also forecasted a landslide victory for Labour on July 4, albeit with fewer seats than Tony Blair won in 1997 and 2001.

The mega-poll from More in Common UK and the News Agents suggests Labour would comfortably defeat the Conservatives if a general election were held tomorrow, winning 406 seats against the Tories’ 155.

If the survey results were translated into the general election, government ministers including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Alex Chalk and Mark Harper would lose their seats.

READ MORE: UK general election poll tracker: Daily roundup on how polls look for Labour

However, Labour’s seat tally would fall slightly short of topping New Labour’s milestone win in 1997, in which the party won 418 seats, or 2001, in which Labour won 412 seats.

Luke Tryl, executive director of More in Common UK said: “The fact that this projection showing the Conservatives barely holding 150 seats is one of the most favourable to the Conservatives shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in – with barely two weeks to go for them to change the dial.

“Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now, the Conservatives position instead appears to be getting worse and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats.”

The Liberal Democrats are projected to retake their historic position as third largest party in the Commons from the Scottish National Party – with 49 seats to the SNP’s 18.

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Plaid Cymru would win two seats, while the Greens would remain with their sole current constituency of Brighton Pavilion.

This MRP leaves the Conservatives with a less disastrous forecast than other pollsters, with a similar Survation survey projecting a catastrophic Tory collapse to just 72 seats.

Tryl added: “Labour on the other hand looks set to inherit a historic majority while remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate.

“While creating such a broad electoral Coalition, that will span from Blue Wall Worthing to Blyth in the Red Wall is a good problem to have in the short term, it points to potential difficulties in creating a governing agenda that unites such disparate tribes – especially when electoral cynicism is so high.”

READ MORE: Survation MRP poll projects Labour to win 262-seat majority and Tories 72 seats

However, the More in Common MRP model shows 96 marginal seats where the Tories are within five points of winning.

If all were to vote Conservative, the Tories could win a total of 203 seats, with 371 for Labour and 40 for the Liberal Democrats.

On the other hand, the model also suggests a last minute swing away from the Conservatives fuelled by the rise of Reform UK could leave the Tories with as few as 107 seats.

The implied national vote share would be as follows:

• Labour 44%
• Conservatives 28%
• Liberal Democrats 11%
• Reform 8%
• Green Party 5%
• SNP 3%

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