Bristol Central: Inside Labour’s battle to counter the insurgent Green Party

Amongst all the constituency races across the country, including the dozens of safe Conservative seats which could flip for the first time, one battle has attracted the media’s interest like no other.

The race for Bristol Central has the potential to be one of Labour’s only upsets on what could otherwise be a historic night.

The Green Party has made the seat, currently held by Shadow Culture Secretary Thangam Debbonaire, a key target in their bid to gain a second seat in Parliament. Debbonaire’s challenger, Carla Denyer, is the co-leader of the party, gaining national attention in the seven-way television debates.

‘It’s still a Labour/Tory fight’

Living in Brighton Pavilion, where Labour hope to win the Greens’ only seat, the contest in Bristol piqued my interest.

I met Debbonaire on a swelteringly hot and sunny afternoon at a local park, within close proximity to a number of Labour flyers in windows.

While many have touted the battle in Bristol Central as a fight between Labour and the Greens, Debbonaire sees it slightly differently.

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She said: “It still is a Labour/Tory fight because if you want to get a change of government, it’s going to be a Labour government. The only way we do that is to keep the 200 Labour MPs we’ve got and nearly double it.

“People around here tell me, almost universally, no matter who they voted for last time – including former Tory voters, that they want rid of the Conservative government. The only way we do that is to elect more Labour MPs.”

‘Labour is offering real hope and real change’

Debbonaire explained that the key issues being raised by voters on the doorstep are the ones replicated across the country – the state of the health service and education, the cost of living crisis and restoring trust in politics.

“They will almost certainly know someone who is on an NHS waiting list. They will know someone or they will have a child who is at a school where there just aren’t enough teachers or where there’s dodgy buildings that need sorting out. They will know somebody who is profoundly affected by the cost of living crisis.

“Those are things which need a change of government. The Labour manifesto has shown there are ways we can change this.”

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She added: “People have lost hope and faith in politics because of Boris Johnson’s antics and numerous other Tory politicians. It’s not sticking to the rules and just feeling like the rules don’t apply to them.

“I’m not surprised that some people are feeling in despair – and I’m proud to be able to stand on a manifesto that offers real hope and real change to the people of this country, including the people of Bristol Central.”

‘It’s never about you – it’s always about other people’

Debbonaire, who entered Parliament as the MP for Bristol West in 2015, comes from a very political and very Labour family.

“My mother and her father were both heavily involved with the party and the Co-op Party and the trade union movement. My grandad was on the assembly line at the car works at Cowley in east Oxford and then became a Labour councillor representing that area – and both he and my grandmother were fantastic politicians and inspirations.

“I didn’t think of getting involved myself as a candidate, although I’ve been a member since I was a teenager, until around the time of the 2010 election – looking around me, knowing how much difference a Labour government had meant to the lives of people in my family, my friendship group and my city and communities.”

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26 days to go 🗳: when I got to Bristol in 1991 Banksy was just getting going. Here is one from the early days – taken earlier today when out canvassing! pic.twitter.com/vy2zHG8My7

— Thangam Debbonaire (@ThangamDebb) June 8, 2024

What does public service mean for Debbonaire? “It means the fact that it’s never about you – it’s always about other people.

“The reason I chose to serve the people of Bristol Central is because I look around and I see how much the people of Bristol Central benefited in the past from a Labour government and will again from a future Labour government.

“I see how badly our public services, our businesses have been damaged by the Conservative government and their failure to invest. Tory cuts that have meant people have paid a price in waiting time at hospitals, or schools that haven’t got enough teachers, or people who can’t call a police officer because they know there aren’t enough to come around and deal with what matters so much to them.

“It’s beyond a job – in my view, being an MP has become a vocation for me. It’s something which you are 24 hours a day, seven days a week. You are there to try and bring people together and synthesise their views and represent them in Parliament. That’s the most important part, being a constituency MP.”

‘I think I’ve got the best volunteers’

Hundreds of volunteers have signed up to help campaign for Debbonaire, with new people of all ages joining her almost every single day.

“I’ve got brilliant volunteers – I think I’ve got the best volunteers,” she said.

“Labour volunteers across the country are amazing. They do it because they believe in it. They do it because they believe in public service. The volunteers I’ve had with me in Bristol Central have been so energetic and so passionate.”

READ MORE: Brighton Pavilion: As Starmer visits, can Labour win the Greens’ one seat?

Debbonaire has also been joined by several members of the Shadow Cabinet, including Keir Starmer.

“It was great to have Keir down – he was launching the Labour football governance bill. I am so proud that Keir chose to launch that here because I, if I am reelected, will be the Secretary of State taking that bill through, which is a great thing for football and puts fans back at the heart of football.”

Choice between voice in government or opposition MP

I joined a large group that had turned out to canvass and found a number of people who said they would be backing Labour again next week. However, one voter in particular stuck in my mind afterwards, who was torn between backing Debbonaire and voting Green.

The resident, originally from South Africa, talked about how the ruling ANC had been forced into a coalition and how other parties would be able to hold them to account. Debbonaire, who had knocked on his door, made the case strongly that the choice at the election was between an MP who would be Bristol’s voice in the government, or a backbench opposition MP who can’t change anything.

She also stressed how polls have been wrong in previous elections, citing 2015, the Brexit referendum and the 2016 presidential election in the United States – and made it clear that a change in government can only happen when people vote for it.

Bristol Central a ‘toss-up’

There is no escaping the challenge that Labour faces in this constituency. After leaving the canvassing session, I came across several Green Party posters, garden posts and a giant sign on the side of a road proclaiming: “The Conservatives are toast – change is coming.”

The closeness of the race – the Greens admitted to me that the contest is a “toss-up” – was well captured in one house which had a Labour poster and a Green poster next to each other on the same window.

READ MORE: Sheffield Hallam: ‘Can Labour’s Olivia Blake hold on in Nick Clegg’s old seat?’

After being invited along to a Green canvassing session, attended by more than a dozen activists, I asked one Green councillor the obvious question – why does Bristol need an opposition MP when we could be on the cusp of a Labour government?

The councillor said: “If Thangam is reelected, she could well be in Keir Starmer’s cabinet, but that comes with a huge number of restrictions. That really limits her and how she can stand up for Bristolians on the issues that matter to the city, because she’s got to obey Keir Starmer before her own constituents. She’s got to put party before country, in effect.

“That’s not a limit Carla Denyer will have. We are not whipped, so Carla will be free to stand up for the priorities of Bristol Central.”

The battle to embody change

While shadowing the Greens, the vast majority of those who opened the door said they would be voting Green on July 4, with many saying they had backed the party at the local election back in May. These voters expressed concern about the cost of renting and pollution in the city and thought a Green MP would help take action on the environment.

Only one voter I met on that canvassing session said they would be voting Labour, who said they hoped the party would implement proportional representation once in office (something Keir Starmer has since ruled out, despite support among Labour voters).

With the race so close, Labour’s message in the final stretch of the campaign is particularly apt: “If you want change, vote for it.”

In Bristol, the question is which party can better overcome the doubts of voters on the left on that point: for Labour, about whether it represents sufficient change, and for the Greens, about whether they could sufficiently deliver it.

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