YouGov final MRP: Pollster ‘absolutely confident’ Labour is set to win

Labour has been projected to win 431 seats and the Tories 102 in YouGov’s final MRP model of the general election campaign – with the pollster saying it is “absolutely confident” Labour is set to win.

Labour has been trying hard to warn voters that change “only happens if you vote for it” in the past week however, keen to avoid complacency about victory, with senior figures repeatedly warning most votes bar postal ones have not yet been cast.

The research, released this evening, projected that on current polling data, Labour would win 39% of the vote when Britons head to the polls on Thursday, ahead of the Tories on 22%, Reform UK on 15%, the Liberal Democrats on 12% and the Green Party on 7%.

Based on those vote shares, YouGov found that Labour would win 431 seats, the Tories 102, the Lib Dems 72, the Green Party two, Reform UK three, while it projected that the Scottish National Party could win 18 seats and Plaid Cymru three.

READ MORE: Sign up to our must-read daily briefing email on all things Labour

Commenting on its latest model, YouGov said: “Compared to our MRP model at the start of the election campaign, the Conservatives have dropped three points and Labour have dropped four points, with the Liberal Democrats up one and Reform UK up five.

“The impact, however, has largely been to increase Labour and particularly the Liberal Democrats’ seat numbers, suggesting much of that movement is anti-Conservative voters making tactical decisions on how best to remove them.”

The model suggested that there are 89 seats where the top two parties are within 5% percent of each other, which the pollster said “means a small movement in the overall share of the vote could equates to a large number of seats changing hands”.

“This is particularly the case in Scotland, where the distribution of the SNP vote is relatively flat, and there are large number of seats that could easily change hands on just a small shift in the vote,” YouGov said.

READ MORE: ‘Time for a new manager’: The Sun backs Labour at general election

The pollster’s estimated range for the number of seats Labour could win was 391 to 466, while for the Tories it was 78 to 129 and for the Lib Dems 57 to 87. YouGov said it was “absolutely confident” Labour is set to win and “set to win big”.

The findings follows two earlier MRP analyses released today, both of which projected that Labour could win well over 400 seats. More in Common’s final MRP, released in partnership with The News Agents podcast, estimated that Labour could win 430 seats ahead of the Tories on 126.

More in Common’s model projects that Labour could win a majority of 210 seats – but notably puts former party leader and independent candidate Jeremy Corbyn in the lead in Islington North, on 43% of the vote ahead of Labour on 37%.

A third MRP analysis from Focaldata, produced in partnership with Prolific, projects that Labour could win 444 seats and 40% of the vote, while the Tories could win 108 seats.

Read more of our 2024 general election coverage:

North East Somerset and Hanham: Can Labour mayor Dan Norris consign Jacob Rees-Mogg to history?

Finchley and Golders Green: Can Labour win back Britain’s most Jewish seat?

Small boats and Tory mutineers: Can veteran Mike Tapp win Dover and Deal?

East Thanet: Inside the battle for coastal ex-UKIP stronghold not won since 2005

Sheffield Hallam: ‘Can Labour’s Olivia Blake hold on in Nick Clegg’s old seat?’

Battle of the bar charts in Wimbledon: Inside a rare election three-horse race

Could Labour take ‘non-battleground’ Tory seats across the South West?

Meet NHS doctor Zubir Ahmed, fighting one of Scotland’s tightest marginals

Brighton Pavilion: As Starmer visits, can Labour win the Greens’ one seat?

Labour wants a new generation of new towns. Can it win in Milton Keynes?

Meet Gordon McKee, the 29-year-old son of a welder vying for Glasgow South

Revealed: The battlegrounds attracting most activists as 17,000 sign up

SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour or the election – contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected]. 

SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning. 

DONATE: If you value our work, please donate to become one of our supporters here and help sustain and expand our coverage.

PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or content, email [email protected].