Keir Starmer speech: Five things it tells us about Labour’s plans and its fears

Keir Starmer has made one of his biggest speeches yet as Prime Minister, addressing the nation from Downing Street with a new “fixing the foundations” slogan on his lectern.

LabourList has a minute-by-minute piece on the speech and reaction as it unfolded here, and a full transcript of the speech too here.

But what are the key things we learned? Here a few quick takeaways:

1. More taxes on the well-off feel more likely than ever

Keir Starmer may say he plans to honour Labour’s ‘triple lock’ of no hikes to VAT, income tax or national insurance for “working people”, but he also warned “those with the broader shoulders should bear the heaviest burden”.

While he immediately followed that up by saying it was “why we’re cracking down on non-doms”, the PM and his advisers well know it will fuel further speculation about more tax hikes – as it’s a familiar line for any politician looking to hike taxes on the better-off.

READ MORE: Keir Starmer speech: Key highlights as PM admits Budget will be ‘painful’

The i has a good summary here of some of the potential options for the Chancellor in October’s Budget from capital gains to pension tax relief, with some reported to be under consideration.

Remember just a few years ago Starmer was pledging increase income tax for the top 5% – a sign he may well be more prepared to tax the richest in society than New Labour was, however much he’s distanced himself from his leadership election pledges since…

2. More ‘difficult trade-offs’ and winter fuel wobbles to come

Labour is already feeling the heat from across the board over winter fuel cuts and from the right over potential tax hikes – but Starmer suggested there are more “difficult trade offs” to come.

“I will be honest with you, there is a Budget coming in October, and it’s going to be painful. We have no other choice, given the situation that we’re in.”

Perhaps that means tax hikes that plenty of activists will welcome, but perhaps it also means cuts or very limited investment in services that plenty of supporters will welcome far, far less.

Unite’s Sharon Graham has already just warned in response that “austerity mach two is not the answer” and we need “change not cuts” today. She said it’s “simply not true” we lack the funds to restore services or industry.

READ MORE: Read the Keir Starmer speech today in full

The major affiliated union’s general secretary called for Labour “courage”, and a wealth tax. Meanwhile the winter fuel allowance backlash is growing already, prompting Starmer to dedicate multiple lines to defending a choice he “didn’t want”. That suggests some concern high up about containing the row.

This morning Ellie Reeves had to deny cabinet splits on air, but several outlets have reported unrest among some MPs. Just today one first-time Labour voter wrote to us to say she’ll never vote Labour again over it.

Starmer made a good point that pensioners rely on transport and the NHS and want their grandchildren to get on in education and home ownership, but the backlash doesn’t show any signs of fading.

3. Expectation management on steroids – and Labour jitters

“I have to be honest with you, things are worse than we ever imagined… things will get worse before they get better,” said a stone-faced Starmer.

For all the doom-and-gloom will disappoint many on the left, there seems a consensus among political commentators that early on in a parliamentary term is the best time for bad news. Theresa May’s ‘dementia tax ‘ announcement during her 2017 campaign didn’t work out well.

It’s much easier to blame your predecessors and manage expectations when you’ve just arrived in office, whereas in recent years audiences have groaned in TV studios at Tories blaming the last Labour government.

READ MORE: Starmer warns of unpopular choices after ’14 years of populism and failure’ that left ‘societal black hole’

Many supporters willing to grit their teeth for now will at least hope we’ll start getting more positive mood music by mid-Parliament though.

There was a sign Labour’s a little fearful about how convincingly its messaging is landing, however. Starmer said: “We discovered a £22bn black hole in the public finances. And before anyone says, oh, this is just performative’, or ‘playing politics’, let’s remember the OBR did not know about it.”

Perhaps that nervousness is no surprise though, given much of the usually impeccably impartial press seem strangely less keen to accept the language of “black holes” when it’s said by someone who wears a red rosette than someone who wears a blue one. Can’t think why.

4. Starmer is avoiding one big political trap on the riots

Starmer was criticised by some for not responding to the riots with more of a compelling narrative about the state of the nation, both as something voters might expect and as an opportunity to defend or launch aspects of Labour’s agenda.

I think it’s fair to say Labour’s response mainly focused on condemning “thugs” and then the far-right. Perhaps he didn’t broaden it to a wider narrative earlier partly due to caution; perhaps it’s linked to it being summer recess.

But a big aspect of it is surely the political danger of any immediate attempt to link the riots to wider issues being painted as not a partial explanation, but either an excuse or an excessively party political attack– something the media and many critics left and right would likely have pounced on.

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Hence Starmer on 1 August saying “crime is crime”, whatever the “apparent cause or motivation”.

Contrast that to today, where he argued rioters “saw the cracks in our society…and exploited it”, thinking “I won’t be prosecuted” given the state of the justice system.

That kind of attack on the Tories’ record might have fuelled a major backlash if it had been delivered straightaway, whereas it passed with limited comment in the media Q-and-A following the speech.

Starmer’s words also seem to faintly hint at wider societal problems playing a part in the riots, without explicitly referencing  any beyond the justice system – and so avoiding giving critics ammunition to claim he’s excusing behaviour.

5. A determined bid to rebuild trust in politics

The doom-and-gloom messaging is partly a reflection of the economic reality Labour’s inherited, partly a party-political assault on the Tories, and partly an expectation management exercise with voters who backed the party with a sincere hope and expectation Labour will deliver big changes swiftly.

But it’s also a message to voters who don’t really believe Labour or any politicians will deliver change at all.

For the first group, it feels like it’s about reining in expectations. For the latter it feels like it’s actually about building expectations by making pledges sound more credible to the most cynical and pessimistic of voters.

READ MORE: Starmer faces pressure to deliver as Labour voters expect change within year

There was a lot of direct appeals to the disillusioned too. “This is a government for you. A garden and a building that were once used for lockdown parties…Remember the pictures just over there, of the wine and the food. Well this garden and this buildin are now back in your service,” he said.

So for all Labour’s rowed back on many policy ambitions in recent years, rebuilding the trust of disillusioned voters does feel like one under-appreciated, unstated Starmerite mission.

And in the context of not just the rise of Ukip, Brexit and perhaps the latest riots, but also Labour reportedly having the lowest share of the vote for any governing party since WWI, it’s an important mission – albeit an extremely hard one.

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