‘The five parts of Labour’s electoral coalition – and why they’re all fragile’

Labour’s election victory was built on winning very specific types of parliamentary constituencies. My work in Labour Together’s Electoral Coalition group in 2018 identified the following key groups of constituencies:

• Traditional Southern English marginals like Swindon South and Harlow
• The so-called ‘Red Wall’ North of England post industrial towns that were decisively lost in 2019.
• Big cities constituencies with younger and multi-ethnic communities
• Constituencies won from the Scottish National Party
• University towns

All five ‘legs’ of Labour’s electoral coalition are vulnerable to even a small shift in the electoral fortunes of the party or its competitors.

Traditional Southern marginals

The Labour leadership’s electoral strategy was principally about reassuring middle income voters in these seats that a Labour government would not damage their household finances and would manage the economy well. Labour achieved healthy increases in its vote in a series of these seats.

The addition of these seats in the Labour column presents a policy challenge. Whilst interest rates and living standard levels will heavily influence how the Swindons, Harlows and Milton Keynes vote in 2029, these communities also have public services that have suffered during the austerity years.

The Chancellor will be under pressure from these Labour MPs to ensure that their health services and local authorities are invested in at the Comprehensive Spending Review.

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However, doing so in the current fiscal context may generate tensions with Labour’s big city constituencies in places Liverpool that experienced considerable budget cuts under the Conservatives.

These communities have a young age profile and many of their voters face high rent levels. Labour will need to show that it is taking action not just on increasing owner occupation but on alleviating pressures on private renters. For example, in the last year rents in Swindon have seen a 10.3% rise. In seats like Portsmouth North Labour is vulnerable to even a tiny move of its voters to the Green Party.

The Red Wall

Labour did not perform well in Red Wall constituencies in July 2024. In a series of seats Labour’s vote actually fell including Bury North, Heywood and Middleton, Stoke on Trent Central and Burnley Labour’s sweep in these constituencies was driven by sharp rises in Reform UK’s support.

In the Northwest Labour’s vote fell by two percent, whilst Reform surged by 12.7 percent. There is clear continuity between the UK Independence Party’s rise in 2015 in deindustrialised communities, the strong 2016 Leave vote and the strong performance of Nigel Farage’s party in these seats.

The underlying discontents over cultural insecurity, immigration policy and the failure of Levelling Up remain and have not been countered by any of the mainstream parties.

The last government never instigated a public debate over which types of skills should be privileged for work visas. This left all the mainstream parties vulnerable to Reform’s argument that immigration targets had been missed.

Labour is vulnerable to any repositioning by the Reform Party on socio-economic issues. If Reform calls for redistributive measures to benefit these communities Labour MPs would become more vulnerable to defeat. In France the National Rally’s move to the left on economic issues enabled it to break out of its ceiling of nativist voters.

Labour and the big cities  

There has been much discussion over Labour’s loss of support in big cities that have large Muslim electorates over the war in Gaza. However, people living in the conurbations are ‘change voters’. Forty percent of voters with Pakistani ancestry are in the bottom fifth of incomes.

A third of Black voters are in this category. The discontent over Gaza needs to be seen in the wider context of urban communities that face poor housing, low and insecure incomes and labour market discrimination.

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Labour’s vote fell sharply in seats like Newcastle East and Liverpool Riverside that have tiny Muslim populations.

Labour needs to consider non-public spending interventions that can have a discernible impact on its core support in the big cities and raise community morale. Action on an issue like reform of police Stop and Search might send out a positive message to these communities.

University towns

The Green Party has seen its opening to advance in these communities. The Green saw their opening with Gaza in this year’s election.

However, if the salience of climate change increases the Green Party could capitalise on this and contribute to Labour defeats in places like Reading Central and Canterbury.

A major emerging environmental issue could become a new flashpoint for discontent. The Greens now have a stronger parliamentary platform to capitalise on such a scenario.

Scotland

Labour’s Scottish gains represented the biggest electoral successes. Labour’s results here reflected the types of swing party strategies hoped would happen in England.

Nonetheless the overwhelming desire of Scottish voters in the central belt to remove the Conservatives will not be enough to ensure a return to the pre-2015 order. Scottish voters are now as up for grabs as Red Wall English northern electors.

If Labour regains power in the Scottish Government, it will cement its status as the Establishment. A new Scottish National Party leader could find a policy ‘wedge’ issue that places Labour on the defensive north of the border.

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All parts of Labour’s electoral coalition are fragile. Strong economic growth in the run up to 2029 might allow Labour to hold Southern marginals.

However, Labour cannot count on ‘left behind’ communities in the Red Wall feeling gratitude for economic growth if they do not see the results in their own communities.

Low turnouts and disillusionment could see Labour lose a significant number of big city seats. The big lesson of elections since 2017 is that large groups of voters can shift decisively in any of the electoral groups outlined in this article.

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