‘Assisted dying is going down to the wire – with most Labour MPs still silent’

As Parliament prepares to debate assisted dying for the first time in almost a decade, it is clear MPs are deeply divided on the matter – and that the vote on Friday may go down to the wire.

Over the last few weeks, LabourList has been talking to MPs and trawling through their feeds to update our tracker of how those on the government benches will vote on this most important of subjects.

While there are strong voices on both sides, one of the most striking aspects of the debate is the fact the majority of Labour MPs remain either undecided or publicly silent on the matter, even with days to go.

That time spent making final decisions is perhaps unsurprising given how significant the question is before MPs in a free vote, but it does leave the result of Friday’s second reading all the more unpredictable.

READ MORE: How does each Labour MP plan to vote on assisted dying bill?

Some of those voting against the bill have made the case that those that remain undecided at this stage will inevitably opt for the status quo and defeat it.

Yet there are others in the opposing camp making the opposite case, suggesting some currently silent MPs will vote ‘aye’  to allow the debate to continue, backing the bill to ensure it undergoes greater scrutiny.

MPs ‘incredibly worried’ about loopholes

Tipton and Wednesbury MP Antonia Bance is among the Labour MPs opposing the bill. She claimed many of her colleagues were “incredibly worried” about loopholes in the bill and the potential for coercion.

She told LabourList: “We all know the NHS is on its knees and palliative care isn’t available to everyone who needs it. We were elected to fix the NHS – and lots of us think that should be our priority, just six months since the election campaign.

“It’s clear that the process of a private members’ bill means this bill will make for bad law – it will be rushed through with little scrutiny or chance for amendment. For all these reasons, many Labour MPs will vote against.”

Bance’s concern is around how the bill might affect disabled people, and highlighted how disability campaigners, including Tanni Grey-Thompson, have made their concerns to Labour MPs.

She said: “It is clear that the definitions of terminal illness and disability may overlap, and that no matter the promises now, the international experience is that, once passed, the scope of the law is quickly extended.”

‘MPs going through the bill in a lot of detail’

Dunfermline and Dollar MP Graeme Downie, who is supporting the bill, said that MPs had done a significant amount of engagement locally with constituents on the matter, with several holding special surgeries to hear different perspectives.

“A lot of people who I know are going through the bill in a lot of detail, they are highlighting things they are worrying about. I think Kim Leadbeater has done the most incredible job of speaking to everybody and anybody about her intent behind the bill.

“It’s a process we’re engaging in. My view is that if the bill presented to Parliament on Friday were to go through all the stages, it will not look like it does at the moment. Because there is no whip, I think there’s lots of conversations to be had about how we can address individual concerns and how we can reach consensus.

“That only happens though if we get through a second reading, which allows those more detailed conversations to happen.”

READ MORE: LabourList readers back assisted dying – but less sure safeguards are adequate

Divisions among ministers

Division on this issue of conscience has split the cabinet too, with eight coming out in favour and six opposed. While some have used the media to put their names to one side or the other, there are some who have opted to keep their position private, at least for now.

When I asked one government minister how they plan to vote, they quickly responded: “I’m following the Cabinet advice” – that being that ministers “should reiterate that this is a question for Parliament, on which the official government position is to remain neutral”.

That hasn’t been the case for all members of the government, however, with Wes Streeting expressing his vocal opposition to assisted dying, claiming that it would force cuts in other parts of the health service to fund its implementation, and commissioning work into the potential costs to the NHS of the legislation.

His interventions have ruffled feathers, including from party grandee Harriet Harman, who told The Observer that Streeting had “stepped over the line”.

However, one Labour MP told me the Health Secretary couldn’t be expected to be completely silent about their own views when they will also be expected to be at the centre of delivering the legislation.

“It’s absolutely right that the Secretaries of States, upon whom the vast majority of the responsibility would lie if this bill passes, make some comment. But also more importantly, it’s right that they prepare their departments for the outcome, whichever way it goes,” they said.

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How might the vote go?

At the time of publishing this story, 75 Labour MPs had confirmed (either publicly or anonymously) they will be backing Kim Leadbeater’s bill on Friday, with 43 stating they plan on voting against.

Both totals are trumped by the number who have confirmed they are undecided – so far standing at 88 – and those who haven’t declared their positions, numbering close to 200.

These figures would change slightly when considering how some MPs voted when Parliament last debated assisted dying in 2015 (although an MP’s previous vote is no guarantee they will vote for this bill).

When adding those MPs to our tally, the totals would add up to 97 for and 70 against – demonstrating a more finely balanced picture between the two sides within the Parliamentary Labour Party.

While there is heated debate – and the i splashed on Monday on the headline “cabinet split over assisted dying as vote row deepens” – all the MPs LabourList spoke to suggested the divisions were merely temporary. They expect MPs to rally together following the vote.

With the vote just days away, both sides claim to have the wind in their sails. But it still seems too soon to say, with all signs increasingly pointing to a vote that will be decided by the smallest of margins.

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