US election: ‘As midnight approaches in DC, the Democrats are growing nervous’

As expected it’s very close, too close to call. But any hope that the last few days was seeing a surge of support heading back to Kamala Harris has not materialised.

It’s 11pm in Washington DC and Democrats are nervous. The optimism of the last 48 hours has been replaced by a combination of desperate hope and fear as the votes continue to come in across the country.

Donald Trump is performing well, and better than in 2020. He appears to have effectively mobilised his vote in rural America and – with most of the votes counted – is on the verge of seizing back two swing states, Georgia and North Carolina.

Trump is also ahead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania too but it’s too early to predict the outcome that may well take days to be concluded. It’s now a must-win state to win for Harris whose potential path to the White House appears to have narrowed to the blue wall, including Michigan and Wisconsin.

Interestingly, according to exit polls, Harris does not appear to have won a greater percentage of the votes of American women than Biden did last time around. She will comfortably win the female vote but it has not moved the dial in a way that Democrats were hoping, or even expecting.

Meanwhile, Trump has significantly improved his performance in 2020 with other key segments of the voting population, particularly Latino voters.

It’s looking increasingly certain that the Republicans will win control of the US Senate before the evening is out here, and they are increasingly confident that they have the numbers to win the White House too.

It’s not over yet for Harris, and there is still a route to victory. But it is not the night the Democrats were hoping for a few hours ago and we all need to get prepared for this election contest to run for some time yet.

Read more of our Budget 2024 coverage:

• • Live updates and stream as tax and spend policy revealed
  • Labour’s Budget 2024: All the policies announced in advance
  • ‘No fiscal rule is perfect. But this one means welcome investment’
  • Fiscal rules: What is Reeves changing – and why does it matter?
  • Bus fare cap row rumbles on as Burnham sticks to £2 cap
  • Sam White: ‘Budget 2024 leaves Reeves facing nine circles of fiscal hell’
  • Budget bus fare row: ‘The £2 cap was a rare policy that dramatically improves lives – it’s so cheap people talk about it’
  • Budget 2024: National Minimum Wage set for record hike and Living Wage to rise 6.7%
  • Budget 2024: ‘How Rachel Reeves will turn the page on the Tories’ economic illiteracy’
  • ‘How Labour councils can help Starmer and Reeves deliver their growth mission’
  • Who key Budget policies are aimed at – and the electoral strategy they signal
  • ‘A proper Labour Budget’: MPs, unions and readers overjoyed at NHS and NMW cash – but some fear for public services
  • Autumn Budget 2024: Read Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ full Budget speech

• SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected]. 
• SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning. 
• DONATE: If you value our work, please donate to become one of our supporters here and help sustain and expand our coverage.
• PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or content, email [email protected].