‘Ireland’s strengthened left at election leaves room for optimism in uncertain times’

Nothing huge is going to change following Ireland’s general election. While the steady erosion of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, the two centre right parties who have dominated politics since the foundation of the state, is the long-term story of Irish politics (the two commanded more than 70 percent of first preference votes in 1987; today, it’s a little over 40 percent), the next government will still be led by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.

The parties haven’t moved much since the last election; Michéal Martin’s Fianna Fáil are on top with 48 seats, up from 38 and making him the likely next Taoiseach, while Simon Harris’ Fine Gael are now on 38, up from 35. The raw numbers will factor into the new coalition agreement, but this we do know: Ireland is very unlikely to break the habit of a century and choose a third party to lead.

The Sinn Féin takeover which looked inevitable in the years following their astonishing performance at the 2020 election halted rather dramatically as the party became bogged down in scandals and lost the momentum which once looked like it might take them into government. They finished with 39 TDs, up from 37 in 2020, solidifying their place as a larger party but failing to build significantly.

Now that all the results have been returned, the question turns to coalition: who will replace the Greens as the most junior partner in the government?

‘Greens shaped (somewhat) the course of the nation but were annihilated by voters’

If for the larger parties the election was largely a story of continuity, the smaller parties of the left saw greater shifts in fortune. For the Greens, it was not a good night. Government as part of a centre right coalition, to a small left wing party, is basically like being offered a delicious meal that will kill you in five years’ time. You will get to be in government, shaping (somewhat) the course of the nation; and then you will be annihilated by your voters who feel you have betrayed them.

In the UK the Lib Dems in 2015 and the obvious example, but it’s an even more familiar dynamic in Irish politics. It happened to Labour in 2016, and the Greens in 2011, and now, to the Greens again in 2024, who plummeted from 13 seats to one.

READ MORE: Tory-Labour switchers back EU ties more than most voters, poll reveals

While the Greens are all but off the scene, the votes of Labour and the Social Democrats swelled; they’re now at 11 seats apiece. One of the questions I am most frequently asked about Irish politics is what, actually, is the difference between Labour and the Social Democrats.

In policy terms, there isn’t much, but in a historical sense, it’s an easy answer; Labour was founded by trade unionists, including James Connolly, in 1912, and like its sister party in the UK (although somewhat more informally) maintains links with the island’s unions.

The Social Democrats were founded in 2015 by several TDs, some formerly Labour, and can loosely be understood as a rejection of Labour’s 2011-16 coalition with Fine Gael, which enacted austerity policies following the financial crisis. The Social Democrats are younger and trendier and somewhat to Labour’s left; Labour is the traditional party of unions and public sector workers, and has historically been a reliable junior coalition partner for Fine Gael. 

‘Left unlikely to prop up Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael government’

The question now is whether either of the two ascendent left parties want to eat the delicious but deadly coalition meal. While it remains to be seen – government formation is likely some way off – signs point to no. Labour leader Ivana Bacik has long said she will first talk to the Social Democrats and the Green (plural no longer necessary) before considering any deal with the bigger parties.

Given the seeming hesitancy in Labour over a potential coalition deal, and the bitterness and recentness of the 2016 defeat, it seems not overwhelmingly likely that Labour will go into government. Their indication that they won’t do it without the Social Democrats – a party who formed largely to rebuke the idea that it’s good idea for the left to prop up the centre right – would seem to suggest that opposition is the likely home of both parties for the next five years.

The new administration will likely, then, be formed with some of the independent TDs (Ireland has far more of these than the UK; 16 were elected last week) and, lacking the Greens as progressive buffer, be to the right of the previous government. The upheaval that Sinn Féin’s post-2020 polling indicated (when I interviewed Bacik in 2022, she asserted that a general election called then would have yielded a Sinn Féin – Fianna Fáil coalition) has not come about; nor, thankfully, have far right independents made major gains by capitalising on the riots which rocked Dublin last year, as was widely feared. The end result is yet another Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael government, but around the edges – with a strengthened left and no right wing populist surge – there is room for real optimism in uncertain times.

For more from LabourList, follow us on  Bluesky, Threads, X,Facebook,  Instagram or WhatsApp.

Read more about the Plan for Change:

• What is Keir Starmer’s Plan for Change – and Labour’s six policy milestones?
• ‘Why Keir Starmer should embrace populism ahead of the next election’
• Plan for Change: ‘Voters will reward Labour in 2029 if Starmer fixes public services’
• ‘Starmer’s ‘Plan for Change’ speech needs to deliver real solutions or face testing voters’ patience’
• Plan for Change: ‘If early years is key for the PM, we need a revamped Sure Start’
• Starmer poised to unveil ‘measurable milestones’ in Labour’s missions for government

SIGN UP: Get the best daily roundup and analysis of Labour news and comment in our newsletter

• SHARE: If you have anything to share that we should be looking into or publishing about this story – or any other topic involving Labour– contact us (strictly anonymously if you wish) at [email protected]. 
• SUBSCRIBE: Sign up to LabourList’s morning email here for the best briefing on everything Labour, every weekday morning. 
• DONATE: If you value our work, please donate to become one of our supporters here and help sustain and expand our coverage.
• PARTNER: If you or your organisation might be interested in partnering with us on sponsored events or content, email [email protected].