‘Germany’s election offers insights into the threats Labour could face going forward’

With just days to go before Germany heads to the polls in what will be a crucial federal election to the Bundestag, the sense of dread among members of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is increasingly apparent.

Polling suggests the SPD is facing its worst result in decades; having led a coalition government since December 2024, the party is trailing far behind the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Just a week before we arrived in Germany, Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU, broke a long-standing firewall and transformed the election campaign. Merz tabled a nonbinding motion in the Bundestag on tighter migration laws, a move which relied on the votes of the AfD and sent shockwaves through Germany.

This represented the first time since the establishment of the Federal Republic of Germany 75 years ago that any party has collaborated with the far right. Indeed, the AfD have made huge strides in recent years to moderate their extremist image, a position no doubt strengthened by their Meloni and Le Pen-esque leader Alice Weidel, who, as we were repeatedly reminded, is a lesbian who resides in Switzerland with her Sri Lankan partner.

A resurgent far-right looms over the election

The AfD’s simple three pillar campaign – Get the immigrants out, Peace with Russia, Burn the coal – have captured a general mood in Germany of dissatisfaction with the recent ‘traffic-light’ coalition government, and sense that the political establishment does not serve the interests of ordinary German people. In direct contrast, the SPD have seemingly gone so far on the defensive that there is no sense of a coherent or clear campaign.

As for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the consensus among those we spoke to in the SPD was resignation to his poor image, with talk of ‘at least we have a leader’ and ‘he’s what we’ve got.’ Indeed, when discussing how the SPD could reach those voters who have turned towards the AfD, the response was alarmingly fatalistic, with many on the left labelling AfD voters as either racists or fascists.

As Francesca Schroter and Thomas Mattig at FES explained, though this caricature is likely for perhaps 5% of AfD voters, some 20% of people who are now voting AfD do not have such entrenched and extremist views. It is no surprise that Berliners feel the rise of the AfD so acutely.

READ MORE: German election: ‘Olaf Scholz’s fall from grace has crucial lessons for Starmer’

Many parts of the Wall are still intact and, along with grim historical traces of the Nazi regime, provide a constant reminder of the consequences of extremist politics and Germany’s troubled past.

Given that the AfD have significant financial and political ties to the neo-Nazi and fascist German leagues and are classified as extremist organisations by three state authorities in Germany, it is hard not to see its rise in the polls as an omen that history may be repeating itself. Travel only an hour and a half outside of Berlin by train however, and the picture is very different.

AfD posters bearing the stern and confident expression of Alice Weidel are as commonplace as those for the incumbent SPD candidate Maja Wallstein, reflecting the lead that AfD now currently have in eastern states like Brandenburg and Saxony. Cottbus is the second largest city in the eastern state of Brandenburg; a city that has undergone rapid deindustrialisation on a scale not seen since the end of the Second World War, with the closure of coal mining a key part of this process.

Mandated by the coalition government of the SPD, Greens, and Liberals, coal mining will be phased out in the region by 2038.

Election offers ‘insight into the threats Labour could face’

Vague plans to transform the coal industry towards hydrogen power have not remotely quelled the feeling of betrayal amongst the inhabitants of Cottbus that their very lifeblood, coal, is being ripped out from underneath them. This lifeblood is as much about economics as identity. Under the communist GDR, coal mining was one of the highest salaried jobs in the East.

With the stagnation of the automotive industry in Germany outflanked by competition from China and rising energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine, the Eastern economy has taken a nosedive in recent years with the green transformation just another dimension to worry about. In this environment, the AfD’s three pillars could not be more politically salient.

They channel the collective sentiment that political elites have pursued a “woke” ecological agenda that directs public investment away from the German people and instead prioritises the needs of migrants. This sense of being left behind is not unique to Germany, indeed it is the underlying feeling that convinces many people across Europe that the far right is speaking to their concerns.

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The Cottbus SPD candidate, Maja Wallstein, is known for her fearless campaigning style, knocking on doors with her red trolley in tow. She focuses on cultivating relationships rather than assigning labels to those she disagrees with.

Where some parts of the left have channelled their energies into legal battles to try to ban the AfD, candidates like Wallstein recognise that ignoring those who vote for the AfD fails to address the underlying issues and concerns held by her voters.

This German election offers a daunting insight into the threats Labour could face from the right in three years’ time. Elections are not won on the defensive, and so to successfully undermine the right, Labour must deliver on its growth agenda, putting pennies into people’s pockets whilst also formulating policies on immigration that are both compassionate and appeal to voters who feel the issue is not taken seriously in government.

If it does not, the fate of the SPD in the upcoming German election could be a marker for what lies in store.

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