Torfaen by-election: Could Reform win first Welsh council seat off Labour?

A Labour minister has admitted the party faces a “close” council by-election in his constituency today, in an area analysts call a “must-win for Reform” ahead of the next Senedd and general elections.

Voters in Trevethin and Penygam ward in Torfaen are going to the polls to elect a new councillor following the resignation of Labour councillor Sue Malson.

With Reform sailing in the opinion polls nationally, the amount of campaign activity on Reform’s social media channels suggests Nigel Farage’s upstart party has its eyes on the seat.

Reform has called on activists to help “make history”, as winning would hand Reform their very first elected – rather than defecting – councillor in Wales.

In an added twist, the Conservatives – the only challengers to the seat when last fought in 2022, are not standing a candidate.

‘The challenge as an incumbent campaigner’

Defending the seat for Labour is 35-year-old Toniann Phillips, a volunteer trustee and treasurer at a local community centre.

Anthony Hunt, the council leader in Torfaen, told LabourList that the party had spent the campaign speaking to as many residents “one by one” as possible, talking to people about their concerns and the issues important to them.

“Our candidate is a local volunteer and someone who is very much involved in their community, so we’ve been focusing on that and talking to voters as much as we can.”

Warm reception on a cold afternoon in Trevethin and Penygarn with Toniann Phillips – a top @WelshLabour candidate pic.twitter.com/KroeGumiNY

— Torsten Bell (@TorstenBell) February 7, 2025

READ MORE: ‘Why trying to out Reform Reform would be a mistake’

Hunt said that a range of national and local issues had been brought up on the doorstep, including concerns around winter fuel payment cuts and the cost of living.

However, inheritance tax changes for farmers, an issue likely to play a big role in the upcoming Senedd elections next year, has not been raised by voters, according to Hunt.

“People are struggling at the moment. The question is how we respond to that without being drawn into the traps that Reform gets drawn into in promising easy answers to complex problems.

“As a council leader, I face that challenge as I explain what we’re trying to do without making it sound like there is an easy answer to the issues people raise. It’s trying to be honest with people while also showing you get their concerns – that’s the challenge as an incumbent campaigner.”

‘People feel they’re being descended upon by Reform’

Reform supporters have been pictured putting up campaign stakes and gathering for selfies on social media in their attempt to deliver a historic result.

However, Hunt said: “There has been a bit of feeling locally in the ward that they’re being descended upon. Our candidate is from the ward, volunteers in the ward at a local community centre and is very much within the ward.

“There is a feeling that Reform has come in from outside with a big political campaign, as opposed to a localised one.”

Phillips herself told the South Wales Argus that she is unfazed by the strong performance of Reform in national and Welsh opinion polls and said: “Having spoken to a lot of people on the ground, they say it’s a local election and the by-election is for people to vote on local matters, so I don’t think it will be an issue.”

READ MORE: Blue Labour ads, Blue Labour ideas: Inside the fightback against Reform

Reform controversy before polling day

The by-election comes as Reform’s leader on the council Dave Thomas was exposed by LBC as being “DJ Dowster”, the man behind a number of songs including misogynistic lyrics, though Reform said songs were samples from other songs rather than his creations.

Hunt has publicly called on Thomas to apologise and has said the language used in the songs is not acceptable from a publicly elected official.

Critics have also claimed Reform’s candidate, 64-year-old former army major Stuart Keyte, does not live in the ward. Nomination papers confirm he lives in a neighbouring ward which is part of the same council area.

Phillips, who has lived in the area for almost seven years, questioned whether Keyte would be accepted and told the South Wales Argus: “I think it’s really important to have somebody who lives within the community in Trevethin, St Cadoc’s and Penygarn and knows what it is like.”

Just two of the teams out across (a very cold!) Trevethin, Penygarn and Pontnewynydd this morning speaking to local residents about our excellent candidate Toniann Phillips ahead of this Thursday’s Trevethin & Penygarn by-election #votelabour 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿🌹 pic.twitter.com/wotjXswvwX

— Torfaen Labour Party (@TorfaenLabour) February 8, 2025

‘We know it will be a close election’

Among the Labour activists and supporters joining the campaign trail has been Paymaster General and local MP for Torfaen Nick Thomas-Symonds, who praised the Labour team in the area, while also acknowledging the race was likely to be a close one.

He told LabourList: “I’m born and bred in Torfaen, so I love knocking doors in Trevethin and Penygam at the heart of my constituency.

“Our local candidate in this election, Toniann Phillips, is already such an asset to her community. She’s a volunteer at Cold Barn Farm and she will bring so much energy and passion to the ward she’s proud to call home.

“We know it will be a close election – by-elections so often are – but we’ve got a great candidate and a strong Labour team behind her.

‘It’s about putting the hard graft in’

The by-election will no doubt be seen as a barometer for support in Wales for Nigel Farage and Reform, with political analyst for Electoral Calculus Marwan Riach describing the contest as a “must-win for Reform if they want to show the momentum is with them”.

With the Senedd elections only 15 months away, Hunt said that the key to overcoming their threat is in delivery.

“It’s about putting the hard graft in. The council budget that I am going to be proposing next month has been transformed by having two Labour governments (in the Senedd and Westminster) that are willing to invest in services. 

“Before the UK and the Welsh budgets this year, I was having to plan based on a cash flatline or one percent cash increase in my budget, which would have been disastrous for local services.

“Instead, I’ve managed to put a budget together that tries to keep council tax down but invests an extra £5.3m in our schools, £1m in adult social care, £1m extra in children’s services.

“The future for local services is so much brighter now – it’s about sticking to that, keeping that investment going and delivering improvements to those services so people can see them by the time of those elections.

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