‘The public doesn’t think welfare works – but they are more compassionate than sometimes believed’

Let’s start with an obvious point. The public does not think the benefits system works.

Ipsos polling makes this clear. More than half (54%) think the benefits system does poorly at providing the taxpayer value for money (17% say it does well). 38% say it does poorly providing a safety net to those who need it (27% say it does well). On all sides of the debate, the public appear to think the benefits system comes up short.

On this, clearly the government agrees. Ahead of Liz Kendall’s Green Paper, briefings suggest it’s aiming to cut billions of pounds from welfare spending before the spring statement.

As a consequence, Keir Starmer could face the biggest rebellion of his premiership. Allegedly dozens of MPs are prepared to oppose significant cuts to welfare. Frontbenchers are now on resignation watch.

One of the main points of contention is around health-related benefits. It’s argued a key reason the welfare bill continues to rise is that the system incentivises people to apply for health and disability, rather than employment-related benefits. For instance, many health-related benefits such as Personal Independence Payment (PIP) currently don’t require ongoing assessments or check-ins.

But nearly half of Britons (46%) believe the government should require people claiming health-related benefits to take actions like retraining or speaking to a work coach, risking benefit loss if they refuse. On the other hand, 37% say that the government should offer support to those on health-related benefits, but it should not be required.

In fact, of all the major parties, only 2024 Labour voters are (slightly) more likely to say people on health-related benefits should not be required to take action to return to work (45%), compared to those who say they should lose their benefits if they don’t (39%). Conservative (63%), Reform UK (59%) and Liberal Democrat (54%) voters in 2024 are all more likely to say people on health-related benefits should risk losing their benefits if they refuse help back to work, than not.

This highlights the challenge Keir Starmer is facing. His own voters (and some Labour MPs) are some of the most likely to oppose tougher welfare policies.

READ MORE: ‘Ministers must reject failed Tory orthodoxies of the past and put people before profit again’

Despite many Britons wanting tougher policies on welfare, there are competing views on what is to blame for rising costs. More than 4 in 10 think the number of people receiving disability and health-related benefits has increased because people are trying to cheat the system (44%) but a similar number think it is because society now sees more health conditions, such as mental health, as a valid reason for not working (43%). Similarly, 4 in 10 say that people are not getting the medical treatment they need quickly enough to return to work (41%). Arguably another example of how important Labour’s ability to get NHS waiting lists down could be to its future political success.

2024 Labour voters hold more sympathetic views to the public overall. They are most likely to blame people not getting medical treatment quickly enough (44%) for rising costs. They are also as likely to blame low incomes meaning more people with health conditions or disabilities need benefits (37%) as people trying to cheat the system (36%).

Ipsos polling suggests the public want to see a plan to address Britain’s spiralling welfare costs that is solution focused, rather than merely punitive.  When asked what the government should prioritise to address the fact 1.4 million of working age are not working, the number one solution offered was ‘providing support to retrain people for jobs that are in demand (43%). 39% want government to ‘work with employers to create more flexible roles e.g. part time / hybrid working. 36% want tailored support for people with health conditions and disabilities to enter work’. Just 29% wanted the benefits of people not looking for work, such as those with health conditions, reduced.

All of which creates something of a balancing act for Keir Starmer and his government. Whatever the government’s plan is, it will need to be communicated clearly. The data suggests there is significant appetite among the public for the governments reducing and reforming of the welfare system. But the public and Labour’s own voters will not look kindly on an approach that isn’t both firm but also fair.

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