LabourList-Survation party member poll: 71% see Reform as biggest threat

The vast majority of Labour members see Reform as the biggest electoral threat to Labour, and almost one in ten expect the party to form the next government, an exclusive new poll suggests.

Some 70.7% of our readers surveyed in a poll conducted for LabourList by Survation said that Nigel Farage’s party is the greatest political threat to Labour, despite its handful of MPs, compared to just 16.2% for the Conservative Party.  Only 3.2% chose the Liberal Democrats, and another 3.2% chose the Greens.

It comes after separate polling suggested Reform UK could pick up several councils at the local elections in May, including Derbyshire, Doncaster and Durham. The party also appears in with a chance of winning the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, which is expected to be held on May 1.

Labour has accordingly gone on the offensive in recent weeks and months against the insurgent party, with online advertising on social media and campaign literature accusing Reform UK of wanting to scrap the NHS.

What will be the result of the next general election?

The poll is the first in a series of regular polls LabourList will be publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner. Respondents were asked to state if they are party members based in the UK, with results filtered to only include their responses and then weighted.

We also asked about expectations for the next general election. Over a third (43.2%) thought the next election would result in a small Labour majority, compared with around a quarter (24.5%) who expect a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party – and just under six percent who anticipate another large Labour majority.

More on LabourList‘s polling with Survation this month:

• Cabinet league tables: LabourList-Survation poll on members’ favourites
• LabourList-Survation party member poll: 71% see Reform as biggest threat
• Half of Labour members say party going in wrong direction

Just over nine percent said they expect Reform to form the next government either in a hung parliament or with a majority, with around eight percent believing the Conservatives will return to Number 10.

Should the next election result in Labour being the largest party in a hung parliament, a third (34.2%) said the party should seek to form a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, while a greater number (35.1%) said Labour should seek informal support, such as confidence and supply agreements, with other parties but not a formal coalition. Only 14.6% said Labour should govern alone in such a situation.

READ MORE: ‘People want New Labour-style spending now. Here’s why it’s just not possible’

The most important issues for Labour members

The exclusive survey also revealed that health, the economy and the cost of living were their most important issues – with defence and security notably high up too in fourth place.

Almost half of those polled (48.4%) ranked health as one of the most important issues the country is facing, with 46.2% choosing the economy and 42.1% for the cost of living.

Defence and security (38.7%), housing (36.9%) and the environment (29.5%) also ranked highly in the poll.

Despite concerns raised by Labour MPs over welfare reforms, only 6.1% of members surveyed ranked welfare benefits as a top issue, below Brexit (11%) and immigration (9.1%).

Tom Belger, editor of LabourList, said: “These findings suggest members will welcome the leadership’s growing focus on the Reform threat, and the recent shift to more direct attacks on Farage’s party. The thornier question is how members feel about Labour adopting some Reform-style rhetoric and policy – and it’s one we may well ask them in future polls.

“We are excited to be working with Survation on this polling series, gauging the political temperature among supporters with Labour now back in power.

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“As the leading dedicated platform for all things Labour, we believe it’s important to hear and share what ordinary members nationwide have to say about the party’s direction and the latest political developments.

“We hope the polling can help inform and shape debate within Labour and beyond, ensuring the full range and nuances of views across the party on many issues are properly represented. If you’d like to send ideas for future questions, or share your thoughts on this or future surveys (on or off record), email [email protected].”

Damian Lyons Lowe, Chief Executive of Survation, said: “We are delighted to be working with LabourList on this new monthly polling project, providing a unique and consistent insight into the views of Labour members. By tracking opinion over time, we’ll be able to identify key trends among members that shape the party’s direction and policy priorities. This partnership will offer valuable data on what members think about the big issues facing Labour and the country.”

Survation surveyed 2022 LabourList readers, who said they were also members, between 4th and 18th March 2025 via LabourList’s database.  Data were weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region and 2020 Labour leadership election vote, targets for which were derived from the British Election Study and the results of the 2020 leadership election. Full data tables can be viewed on Survation’s website.

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