Local elections: Long shadow of Gaza looms over key Lancashire battleground

Local election campaigns are often fought on local issues like bins and potholes, which councils have the power to change, if not always the money.

But for at least one local authority in northern England next week, events thousands of miles away could be an important factor swaying the results. Labour figures locally are concerned that Gaza will cost them votes – and seats.

Lancashire is an unusually fierce battleground for a county council, with Labour and the Conservatives each having won three of the past six elections since 2001. Ahead of the election, LabourList travelled to Preston to get a sense of the mood on the ground.

The Tories have held it since 2017, but with the council red for almost all of the New Labour era, it is the kind of area where some would argue Keir Starmer’s Labour should at the very least be making gains after 14 years of Conservative rule nationally.

Labour won back the Hyndburn constituency at the general election. The Tories have also lost control of two councils in the region, Ribble Valley and Pendle, in recent years. Meanwhile some of their former councillors have recently joined Reform.

Lancashire will see what looks set to be its final election next week, before it is dissolved in a major restructuring of local government.

How the reorganisation will look remains up in the air, but the county councillors elected on May 1 may not serve a full term before the changes take place.

It’s a difficult backdrop for any campaign, and voter apathy remains high. Despite this, local parties remain determined to fight for the seats.

Fears party’s Gaza stance will cost votes

Sitting on the North Bank of the River Ribble, Preston is a small city with a proud industrial heritage.

Unlike many other industrial areas of Britain, however, Preston has experienced strong economic growth in recent years. It has also been the site of a grassroots focused regeneration project – known as the Preston model.

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In the Commons, Preston is a  safe Labour seat – Sir Mark Hendrick has been the city’s MP for 25 years.

Yet Hendrick was notably elected in 2024 with 35% of the vote, down from 61.8% in 2019.

Much like other areas of the country, Labour’s candidates have to deal with anger over winter fuel payments cuts and welfare reforms. However, there is one further issue particularly weighing on the minds of candidates in Lancashire, far further beyond their patch and remit  – Gaza.

At the last general election, the party lost several safe seats nationally to independents, as Muslim voters abandoned the party in droves.

In Preston itself, the independent candidate Michael Lavalette, a retired lecturer, took 21.8% of the vote to finish second, standing on a pro-Palestine ticket.

There’s a ‘huge amount of apathy’

At the local level today, the party faces not only Reform and Green candidates in every seat, but a threat from four independents running on a pro-Palestine slate, and 19 other independents.

Lavalette is one of them. He is running in Preston Central East, in a seat currently held by veteran Labour councillor Frank De Molfetta with a majority of 1,971.

Speaking to LabourList, Lavalette said the independents were benefitting from hostility to more established political parties, although he said there was also “a huge amount of apathy”. On the doors he said he had met Labour voters who told him they had ripped up their postal votes.

“I have only met one person who said, I am pretty Labour.”

READ MORE: Expert predicts ‘bad night’ with no net Labour gains 

However, he is realistic about the power of Labour’s electoral machine, adding: “I am not saying they won’t get their vote out.”

He claimed the party has told voters that voting for him will help Reform get in.

‘My biggest threat is the independent candidate’

When I spoke to De Molfetta, he said he considered Lavalette, rather than Reform, to be his main rival.

“My biggest threat is the independent (Lavalette), most probably.

“My personal view is that I’ve always supported the Palestinian cause. I think at the beginning of course when you saw what happened you think why is this going on and you could understand the way Israel reacted.

“But, in fairness, over the past year they’ve gone well over the top. I can’t stomach, and I don’t think anyone can stomach seeing children, men, and women, killed on a daily basis. It doesn’t make sense to me.”

He added that he supports a two-state solution.

Labour faces foreign policy challenges as much as domestic

It’s a concern shared by Sarah Smith, the MP for Hyndburn in Lancashire.

“There are still challenges we face on the issue of foreign policy as much as domestic.”

She said the independents “definitely” posed a threat to Labour.

“More in some communities than others, people are rightfully concerned about what’s going on in Palestine.”

She highlighted the “hundreds of millions of pounds” in aid sent by the Labour government.

“For me, I’ve been raising questions, particularly on the potential of a trade deal with Israel, given what’s happening in Gaza.

“The Labour government is absolutely committed to doing the right thing for the Palestinian people, but it is definitely an issue that is coming up, and there is still more work to do, I think, to persuade people on it.”

‘They’re not left-wing anymore’

While in Preston I visited De Molfetta’s patch. Rows of small terraced houses lined leafy streets that opened out onto Moor Park.

There I spoke to Michael Bradshaw, a 48-year-old software engineer, who said Palestine was a “big subject” and an important issue for him. A lifelong Labour voter, he said he was “disillusioned” with the party.

“They’re not leftwing anymore. They’re fighting for centre ground and it’s more about power now than it is about politics. It’s about being in power.”

Another local William Shorrock, 30, said he wouldn’t be voting at all. Asked what his one policy would be if he was in government he said: “Work camps for people on benefits.

“I’m on benefits myself.”

Despite the challenge from Lavalette, De Molfetta believes he still has a lot of support in the area due to all the work he has done for his constituents over the years.

He said his policy is to “continue to deliver what I’ve done for the past 20 years”.

It’s this long record of service that local Labour councillors will be banking on heading into the election.

They prefer to keep the elections rooted in local issues, rather than one or two state solutions.

Fears of insufficient leaflets as party focuses on Runcorn by-election

During my trip to Preston I followed Chris Lomax, Labour’s candidate for South Ribble East, on a canvassing session.

Lomax prides himself on being a hard-working councillor, who’s plugged into local initiatives. He was joined by four volunteers – all Labour councillors.

Despite being directed to nominally Labour-friendly doors to knock via the Doorstep canvassing app, Lomax received a lukewarm reception, with one man – politely clutching a labradoodle – informing him outright: “We won’t be voting Labour.”

He had better luck with another voter – an ex-squaddie – who said his mother would kill him if he voted Tory. Lomax informed him of local initiatives for veterans, and the man took his flyer and said he would think about it.

READ MORE: Analysis: What’s a good night for Labour?

South Ribble East is a Tory seat, currently held by Barrie Yates.

Yates won the seat in 2021 with 2186 votes, with Labour’s then-candidate James Gleeson coming in second place 1144. With Reform now running a candidate, Lomax is hoping the right wing parties eat into each other’s votes.

“I’ve got to make sure on the two or three days before, all the Labour voters get something through the door. Unfortunately I might not get something to put through the door.”

Peter Pillinger, one of the other councillors canvassing with Lomax, said attention and resources had been moved from the area to the by-election in Runcorn.

Lomax added: “That happens every time.”

Read our coverage of the 2025 local elections:

• Where’s Keir? PM barely features in Labour party election broadcasts for the locals
• Hull and East Yorkshire mayor election: Labour candidate spars with Reform’s boxing star in UK’s most disillusioned city
• Cambridgeshire & Peterborough mayor election: Nik Johnson on why he’s standing down and Anna Smith on knife-edge Labour-Tory fight to replace him
• The meme elections: Labour’s social media pivot to take fight to Farage
• Inside the West of England mayor campaign, from Tory and Green threats to Dan Norris and low voter awareness
• Runcorn and Helsby: At least 150 Labour MPs visit – but Keir Starmer ain’t one
• Runcorn and Helsby interview: Labour candidate Karen Shore on Reform, the NHS and closing asylum hotels

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