‘Ignore stereotypes. Reform-leaning Labour voters dislike the two-child cap’

It’s all too easy to come to lazy assumptions about where people’s views will sit on various political questions based on stereotypes or even stated voting intention.

Here’s one of the hardiest misconceptions of this type in British political commentary: if you’re northern and working class, and a bit, well, Brexity, you’re probably culturally right-wing. You’re probably suspicious of social reforms such as gay marriage, and you probably hate single mums who sit in council flats with loads of kids.

Well, if you believe that, you’d probably be wrong – or at least there is a strikingly high likelihood you’d be wrong. People are just much more complicated than most political operators would have you believe.

A former colleague – a sage of the art of qualitative research moderation – used to tell a telling story about running a focus group of young Leave voters somewhere in Sunderland. As he prepared, he absentmindedly imagined some reactionary proto-Andrew Tates were about to show up. Instead, what he got was “the most socially liberal discussion” he’d ever had.

There was quite likely a very similar level of surprise in Labour circles when they read some recent polling on the subject of the two-child limit. Working with the Child Poverty Action Group, we wanted to find out what exactly was going on with key voter groups and the salience of this, the trickiest of political issues being scrapped over in the Labour government.

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It’s no exaggeration to say that what we have found sheds some light on why we’ve witnessed over the last few days the slow unravelling of the government’s hard stance on the issue. The key data lies in where the potential Lab-Reform switchers, those 2024 Labour voters who are at least 50 percent likely to back Farage at the next election, sit on this issue. And it’s safe to say they’re very keen on investing in families with children, all families, whatever their background.

Specifically:

• 84% of Lab-Reform switchers say the rising cost of living has made it more difficult for parents to support their children
• 38% agree that, regardless of their background, all children deserve a good childhood, even if it costs the government more to support families
• 65 per cent agree that reversing benefit cuts for families with children would save money in the long term on healthcare and education

Across all of these measures, this group is more progressive than the national average and more aligned with voters who continue to support Labour than any other electoral segment. Importantly – oh so importantly – the idea that the child limit has achieved totemic status among potential Lab-Reform switchers in the Red Wall is for the birds. Awareness of the specific details of the policy were remarkably light.

In short, the belief that there is a schism in the electoral coalition stitched together at the last election is a nonsense. The electoral landing path for reversing this unprogressive policy is there for all to see.

Indeed, this is true on the left-wing and centrist flanks too. Potential or current switchers from Labour to the Greens and the Lib Dems are united in wanting to end child poverty, in thinking the government has a role to play in this and in thinking that reversing benefit cuts would help. Counter-intuitively, they are much more aligned on this issue with those tempted by Farage’s snake oil than most political strategists realised.

What is now clear – and probably clear to those engaging in the guerrilla warfare of getting this policy reversed – is that making progress on child poverty is something to prioritise, not play down. Labour voters of all persuasions, from progressives in Brighton to those in Reform’s sights in Teesside, are ready to back an end to the two-child benefit cap. The decision can’t come quickly enough.

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