‘Copying Reform is a dead end. To renew Britain, we need real Labour values’

There is no doubt that Reform is setting the agenda in British politics. We are at a very dangerous moment with the threat of the first far-right government in our country’s history. The key question is ‘how do we turn this around?’

The Downing Street strategy seems to be to chase after Reform voters by imitating that party – as seen in the appalling “island of strangers” speech.

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But this approach contradicts the evidence of what has actually happened to Labour’s voter coalition since the general election.

Poll after poll shows that while Labour’s vote has fractured in all directions, our previous voters are mainly going to other progressive parties or to no party at all – and not to Nigel Farage.  Reform’s growing support comes overwhelmingly from former Tory voters and non-voters.

As I have been raising with colleagues in Parliament, we are losing votes to the left – but that will lead to us losing seats to the right.

To stop Reform, we have to rebuild our own progressive voter coalition. That means addressing head-on why Labour’s support has collapsed. Cuts to winter fuel support and disability benefits, a failure to properly tackle the cost-of-living crisis and inaction over Gaza have left people doubting that Labour stands for the change they are crying out for.

The extensive British Election Study (BES) is the latest to shine a light on the Labour leadership’s failed approach. In a recent analysis, Looking for Labour’s Lost Voters, it shows that since the General Election, Labour has lost over half of its 2024 voters. That’s the fastest decline of any governing party in its first year.

Over a quarter of Labour’s 2024 support (27%) has been lost to other parties. This is mainly to the Liberal Democrats (9%) and Greens (8%). In contrast, only 8% have gone to Reform UK. Over 20% of 2024 Labour voters say they are now undecided or would not vote.  

Labour’s losses are concentrated among voters who back higher spending, oppose welfare cuts and are moderate on immigration – the core of its 2024 base.

The BES analysis is blunt in describing how Labour’s “strategy has placed the party at odds with most of its 2024 supporters” and how “Labour’s efforts to attract support on the right have brought little reward and have potentially alienated much of their base.”

In what should be core reading for every single Labour strategist, it adds: 

“Labour faces more direct competition from the Liberal Democrats and Greens than it does Reform – at least in terms of maintaining its 2024 voter base. This is also true when it comes to winning back undecided voters, who are substantially more supportive of the Liberal Democrats and Greens than they are Reform or the Conservatives.”

The BES data is no one-off. In recent months, numerous surveys confirm the same broad picture

Electoral Calculus’ data showed that almost four in ten of Labour’s 2024 voters (37%) no longer support the party. Of those, nearly half have said they will not vote at all. Nearly a third of those lost voters have moved to the Liberal Democrats and Greens. While nearly a quarter of those have switched to Reform UK. 

As Electoral Calculus states, “few voters have made the transition from centre-left parties to right-of-centre parties.”

A Guardian analysis of recent YouGov polls showed 23% of Labour’s 2024 voters are defecting to the Lib Dems and Greens – more than double the 10% now backing Reform. This pattern could deepen with the development of a new left party. 

Persuasion UK’s detailed research from the spring showed just 11% of Labour’s 2024 voters were “Reform-curious,” while three or four times more were open to voting for the Greens or Lib Dems.

More in Common, at whose fringe meeting I will be discussing all this at Labour Party conference, gives the split between as 12% going to the Lib Dems and Greens, 11% to “Don’t know,” and 11% to Reform.

Interestingly, their research shows that those who have left Labour for Reform are much more difficult to win back than those now backing the Lib Dems or Greens. A recent YouGov study found something similar: 60% of the Labour’s 2024 voters who now back the Lib Dems or Greens were likely to consider supporting Labour at the next election. Just 13% of Labour to Reform switchers said the same.

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Even those in our Party who reject this evidence and are focused on winning back Labour switchers to Reform must ask what policies could do so without driving away other Labour voters. It’s not by triangulating with Reform.

Persuasion UK research says making clear dividing lines on economic issues such as taxing the wealthiest and delivering massive investment in public services are the best way for Labour to hold on to both Reform and Green defectors. Others highlight the importance of action to deal with the cost-of-living crisis.

It is clear that real Labour values are needed to rebuild our voter coalition. Chasing Reform voters with a right-wing agenda is a dead end for Labour.

Rightward lurches don’t just undermine the purpose of a Labour government – they damage our electoral prospects.

Getting this right is key to stopping Farage – and he can still be stopped. Reform is polling around 30%. If Labour rebuilds its own alliance, it can overtake it and form the next Government.

But that means those in Downing Street must acknowledge their strategy is failing – and ditch it.

It is not too late for a Labour government to signal a new direction and unite people around a bold, progressive agenda.

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Next May brings elections for the Scottish and Welsh governments and for hundreds of council seats across Labour’s English heartlands. If it does not quickly change course, those elections will be a real moment of reckoning for the Labour leadership.

Our Party will not just sit back and accept a leadership that is handing Farage the keys to No 10 and with it a Trump-style agenda that would be devastating for all those that the Labour Party exists to represent. 

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