Only one in four members want Starmer to resign if Labour lose Senedd election

Just over a quarter of Labour members would want Keir Starmer to resign as Labour leader if the party were to lose next year’s Senedd election, an exclusive poll for LabourList reveals. 

The poll, conducted by Survation, found that 49% of members would want the Prime Minister to remain as party leader even if Labour lost elections in Wales next May and 29% would want Starmer to stand down. Some 22% of those polled were unsure whether Starmer should remain in office or quit as party leader in such circumstances.

It comes after Labour lost the seat in the Senedd to Reform in a by-election in Caerphilly, a part of Wales that has elected Labour representatives for more than a century.

Recent nationwide polling for next year’s Senedd election puts Labour seven points behind Reform on just 23%, with Plaid Cymru close behind in third on 22%.

One Welsh Labour source told the BBC that Labour’s defeat in the by-election was a “defeat for Starmerism, not for First Minister Eluned Morgan” and stressed the need for Morgan to distance herself and Welsh Labour from the UK-wide party.

Nearly three-quarters (71%) of members polled who backed Rebecca Long-Bailey in the 2020 leadership election said Starmer should stand down if Labour lost the Welsh elections next May, compared to just 29% among those who backed Lisa Nandy and 23% for those who backed Keir Starmer.

A plurality of Labour members (41%) who supported Lucy Powell for the deputy leadership election said the Prime Minister should quit as party leader in such circumstances, with 29% telling Survation that Starmer should remain in post. However, those who backed Bridget Phillipson in the contest were overwhelmingly supportive of Keir Starmer remaining as party leader, with 83% opposed to him standing down if Labour lost the Senedd election.

Among Welsh members, 46% supported Starmer remaining as party leader even if Labour lost next year, while 23% said he should stand down, with 30% unsure.

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LabourList editor Emma Burnell said: “Labour members have not always been happy with Starmer’s leadership or the way Labour’s first year in government has gone. This does not mean they are ready to get rid of him – even if things continue to go badly next year.

“While the elections in May might be a danger point for Starmer, Labour members also look at the recent example of the Tories – who had three leaders in one year in 2022 – and are acutely aware that the public won’t forgive self indulgent political parties who take their eye off delivering for the public.

“There is disquiet among the membership. But they do currently seem to be willing Starmer to succeed in changing Labour’s current fortunes and have not given up on his doing so. This is not a poll that should encourage either complacency or panic in number ten.”

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The poll is the latest in a series of regular polls LabourList is publishing in partnership with leading pollsters Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner.

Survation surveyed 1,005 readers of LabourList, the leading dedicated newsletter and news and comment website for Labour supporters, who also said they were Labour Party members between October 17 and 22.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by region, gender, age group, trade union membership and 2020 Labour leadership vote, targets for which were derived from the British Election Study and the results of the 2020 leadership election.

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