At the last election, Labour won an unprecedented victory across the ‘Sea Wall’, a group of 105 coastal town constituencies across England and Wales. The party won 63 seats – with 42 of them switching directly from the Conservatives to Labour. This was the first time in two decades that Labour won more coastal constituencies than any other political party. People living in the ‘Sea Wall’ gave Labour a mandate to deliver, expecting them to do so quickly.
However, similar to the rest of the country, the tide has turned significantly in coastal communities. According to YouGov’s latest MRP, Labour would lose 52 ‘Sea Wall’ constituencies – winning just 11 out of the 105 seats. This would be the worst result for Labour on the coast this century – even if boundary changes make comparison difficult.
If YouGov’s MRP holds up at the next election, Reform would win over three-quarters of the ‘Sea Wal’l – or 76 seats. Reform’s popularity in coastal communities should not be a surprise. Demographics are very favourable for the party, including a higher proportion of older people and people without degrees. Three of the five seats that the party won in 2024 were in the ‘Sea Wall’, including Nigel Farage’s. And support for both UKIP and Brexit were noticeably higher in coastal towns through the 2010s.
It is tempting to think that coastal communities are inevitably lost to Reform, and that Labour should look elsewhere to preserve its majority. However, these places voted Labour just 16 months ago. Over half of the seats (23) predicted to switch from Labour to Reform have Farage’s party leading the government by less than 10%. And just because the populist right has recently been popular across the coast, it does not mean they will always be.
The ‘Sea Wall’ remains eminently winnable for the government. They must win back those Reform voters who previously voted for Labour, recognising the outsized impact these switchers have in battlegrounds. And taking on Reform in places where they are the strongest is critical to Labour’s chances of securing a second term.
Improving wages and tackling the cost of living crisis will be critical to Labour winning back coastal voters. Just before Labour Party Conference, the Fabian Society polled voters on what the Prime Minister should focus on the year ahead. In the ‘Sea Wall’, 49 per cent said the cost of living – the second most selected option.
Stagnant living standards is a driver of discontent across the country, but particularly in coastal communities where wages are lower than average. The Employment Rights Bill and the increase in the National Living Wage are important steps forward to improving pay. The Budget took the necessary immediate steps to cut the cost of living, particularly on energy bills. But the job is not done with one budget. There needs to be a relentless and continuous effort to drive down bills by reforming how markets work, as research from the Fabian Society has shown. Unless coastal voters feel life is more affordable, they will struggle to contemplate voting Labour again.
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While delivering good policy matters, it will not be enough. The challenge for Labour in the ‘Sea Wall’ is more fundamental. Voters in coastal communities have felt ignored for decades. Pre-election, Fabian Society polling found 63 per cent of the ‘Sea Wall’ do not believe that their area is prioritised by politicians in Westminster when decisions are made. Many people living on the coast feel their town has been left behind, and left out of the national story. In many cases, they have been right to feel that way.
And today, many feel that this government is unfortunately more of the same. Even as they deliver policy that will transform lives, the perception in coastal communities is that Labour is not on their side.
That must change if the government is to be re-elected in the ‘Sea Wall’, but this challenge is hard and inevitably long term. The government must restore a sense of purpose and pride in these communities as part of a country that values the contribution they make.
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If Labour is to maintain any majority at the next election, it needs to win as much of the ‘Sea Wall’ as it can. Every coastal town seat it retains makes it harder for Reform to form the next government. By focusing on improving living standards and cutting the cost of living, and showing the government values coastal communities, Labour stands a chance of winning people back.
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