Is Andy Burnham’s star dimming amid repeated hints at leadership ambition?

Without question, were he an MP today and a leadership contest held, Andy Burnham would win by margins some dictators might even blush at. However, exclusive polling for LabourList has revealed a growing sense of resentment towards the ‘King of the North’ among some Labour members.

Polling by Survation over the last year has revealed a 31-point drop in Burnham’s approval among the membership since March – although it is important to note he remains among the most popular Labour politicians (behind only Ed Miliband).

His slump appears to have accelerated post-conference, when he was repeatedly accused of making jabs at the government and not-so-subtle hints at his own leadership ambitions. Burnham’s approval dipped from +78 in the summer to +69 pre-conference and then to +54 in our latest poll – a 24-point slump over three months alone.

There is a clear fault line among those who enthusiastically support Burnham and those who are now more muted in their enthusiasm. Those who backed Lucy Powell in the deputy leadership race, who was endorsed by Burnham, give the Greater Manchester Mayor a +81 approval rating, while his support among Bridget Phillipson supporters sits at close to single digits.

A similar void is evident among those who have differing views about the direction of the party. Those who think Labour is heading in the wrong direction hold Burnham in much higher standing (+69) than those who are fully supportive of the current course of the government (+20).

And yet, despite this, Burnham’s favourability remains high amongst those who backed Keir Starmer for the leadership in 2020 at +46, compared to an almost unanimous +93 among Long-Bailey backers and +28 among supporters of Lisa Nandy.

While it is clear that some in the party see Burnham as Labour’s pathway to re-election in 2029, other members are finding his winks and nods at a leadership bid grating – and damaging for party unity.

In the end though, it may be Labour’s national executive committee that banishes Burnham from a return to Westminster’s corridors. A Labour NEC source is reported to have said that an all-women shortlist would be imposed for any forthcoming by-election, to address a gender imbalance within the PLP. The source said: “Gender balance in our party is much more important than boosting the ego of any single politician.”

Although many would no doubt respect and wholeheartedly agree with such a move – after all, no-one should be entitled to a candidacy – it is quite easy to see how the mood among members and perhaps among some Labour MPs would border on insurrection at such an obstruction.

And that’s to make no mention of how the dynamics of the NEC could change in Burnham’s favour should Andrea Egan be elected as Unison general secretary tomorrow and representatives less loyal to the Prime Minister elected following what could be a disappointing set of local elections…

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