‘Re-election or relegation: why Labour may need a counterattacking strategy’

A consensus about the government’s political strategy has formed on the centre and centre-left. There are different flavours, but the core argument is always that the government needs a more decisive political direction and a determination to shape the public conversation around a new, central narrative. Hard to disagree with, right? Nevertheless, I think it’s worth testing that thinking, using an analogy from the world of football.

Strategy starts with context and resources. It’s an obvious point you’ll hear on any Talksport phone-in. The way you win football matches at the top of the Championship is different from how you do it at the bottom of the Premier League – and most teams promoted into the top echelon struggle with the transition. And yet, it’s one that’s often missing in otherwise smart prescriptions for Labour in 2026.

When they work, I love both silky, passing football and agenda-shaping politics. At least once a week I find myself rewatching highlights from Marcelo Bielsa’s time at Leeds United. The same part of my brain lights up when I look back at New Labour’s ‘unplayable’ political positionings, like ‘tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime’. These were big perspectives, prosecuted in such a way that media and political opponents could only react – and do so badly.

READ MORE: ‘An open letter to my fellow Labour MPs: if not the full Hillsborough Law, what is this government for?’

But what if Labour today simply doesn’t have the players or the manager to play agenda-setting, possession-based politics against a fragmented and gossipy media environment? In that case, constant demands for a better grid, defining speeches, or unrelenting campaigning miss the point. Follow that advice and you end up like Vincent Kompany’s Burnley in 2024: ambitious style, inadequate resources, inevitable relegation.

The defensive side of politics, like the defensive side of football, is often unglamorous. But both in government and opposition, Keir Starmer has often shown his best qualities when something unpredictable and difficult lands on his desk – whether handling Jeremy Corbyn’s response to the Equality and Human Rights Commission or the riots in his first summer as PM. The government has definitely let goals in, but each time the problem seems to start with an attempt to do something ambitious – like persuading the public that cuts to the Winter Fuel Allowance were necessary – that then falls apart under pressure.

Defensive solidity alone won’t be enough. Maybe if the first eighteen months had gone better, Labour could have waited for the public to recognise what had been delivered. But given where the polls stand, the party needs to achieve big shifts in perception across a wide range of voters if it is to stand a chance of re-election.

Apologies if the football analogy is wearing thin, but this is the key point. If you can’t hold onto the ball and still need to score goals, the classic football tactic is counterattacking. And that’s the exam question for anyone on the centre and centre-left who wants this government, with the players it has, to succeed: what would a counterattacking political strategy for Labour look like?

I’m drawn to this approach because one thing often forgotten about Keir Starmer is his luck with opponents. If Labour can get them on the defensive, Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch look easier to score against than Michael Howard and Iain Duncan Smith – let alone David Cameron or Boris Johnson.

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A successful political counterattack might be something like this: a conversation arises outside the government’s control, but leaders engage quickly, increase the issue’s salience, and use it to prove something about the government that changes minds among key voters. The speed of the shift from defence to attack is the critical thing. Political responses that take days lose the media moment and look like they come from calculation rather than conviction.

I don’t know how long it took to write Keir Starmer’s party conference speech condemning thuggery and fear-mongering. I agreed with it. But it would have been far more effective if it had been ready when Tommy Robinson was marching through London, or when Katie Lam began talking about deporting people with legal, settled status. If everyone’s known for a while there’s likely to be a big row with Elon Musk at some point in this parliament, why not decide, beforehand, the ground on which you want to fight?

This isn’t about responding to everything. It isn’t about waiting for something to turn up. And it certainly isn’t about becoming more tactical and less strategic. While counterattacks can’t be predicted, they are rarely improvised. To move fast, in the moment, as one unit, takes intense preparation. If you’ve not got all the key political actors on board already, if you’ve not worked through all the angles and objections ahead of time, your responses will never have conviction or clarity.

My argument is that, for this government, this strategic preparation and training pitch drilling could be a really valuable use of time. Better, in fact, than coordinating another relaunch or trying to find some new argument that links together planning reform, illegal immigration, child poverty, and rearmament. Instead of trying and failing to set the agenda, get ready for the few moments when you might be able to use it. Take the pressure off the grid of policy announcements. Use the time to get ready for the moments where you can win – two or three times a year – and meaningfully shift public perceptions.

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Sporting analogies often fail because sport is meant to be fair, and politics rarely is. But the annual fight against Premier League relegation shows teams can survive – and even thrive – without being packed full of star players.  Shifting focus onto the training ground, putting in the hours so you are ready to make the most of the opportunities that come, might allow Labour to surprise its opponents and supporters alike.

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