I write as chair of a Labour party ward in North London. Here, we face opposition from Greens (thin but threatening), Liberal Democrats (nominal) and supporters of Jeremy Corbyn (vanishing). Reform is a distant, if unpleasant, rumble. Not so, of course, nationally.
Let’s face some unpalatable facts. On our doorsteps, voters are uninspired by the current government. Keir is unpopular. He is seen as robotic, vacillating and out of touch. He is very close to losing the electorate’s attention.
Last year, our ward lost a third of its members. We gained none. Our best line in canvassing for the council is that it is different from the government. We could lose – first locally, then nationally.
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There is undoubtedly a case for a reset with a new leader while there is time.
But is it persuasive? Not quite yet.
Keir has his faults. But some of his unpopularity is predictable given the relentless attacks of our enemies (read the Daily Mail on any given day). Vast sums – often from unaccountable individuals or international sources – are funding a denigration of our leadership and our democracy. Don’t think that anything will affect that.
The barbarians are at the gates. At home, we have Farage. Abroad, Trump. Both can – and want to – do irreparable harm to the kind of country we rightly think most people want. But, voters are scared. I am scared. The entire postwar economic and political settlement is being overturned. We face unprecedented threats.
Keir is an obvious scapegoat. But this is not a good time to indulge in leadership change.
When President Macron goes, Keir will be Europe’s leading political figure. Choose your favourite candidate from whatever party. Will they do as well as Keir? He is right to prioritise the international. That has been his great strength.
Virtually any leadership contest – even if Keir stood down voluntarily – would likely damage our chances of re-election. Only a clean takedown by one of Labour’s big beasts could reset the government on a winning trajectory. But, it rarely works out like that. Watch what happens after Maduro or look at Rome after Julius Caesar. Political topplings are messy: their consequences unpredictable. Botched ones are worse.
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There are immense threats all at once and everywhere. Any government would find it difficult to balance simultaneous crises that include the Covid debt overhang; wars and rumours of wars; the effect of Tory perfidy on government expenditure; the impact of artificial intelligence; the threatened end of NATO; and climate change.
The suggestion that we reach any realistically sunlit uplands by the removal of Keir is for the birds. But things are sufficiently dire that Keir and the government need to respond.
We need some light in the darkness. The government should be more open on its fundamental objectives. Labour has to do the ‘vision thing’. There is no alternative. It is a distinguishing issue against rightwing populists. They don’t have the moral compass that we inherited from the Methodist Church and the British socialist tradition. Yell our values from the rooftops: fairness, opportunity, democracy.
We need to lead an inclusive debate about a modern Britain in which we would like our grandchildren to live. We need to get young people to get engaged with us. We could do this with an open debate about democracy. Trust us. The party – down to ward level – can lead on this.
And we really do need to up the party’s communication skills. This is an issue with many layers. Personally, Keir needs to reconcile his personal persona with his media one. He is much better in person than on screen. He sounds too much like an AI chatbot. Loosen up.
Caution may well be required internationally but is a busted flush back home. With Trump’s election and Farage’s threat, the global political calculus shifted. We can’t get away with the pre-election strategic silence. The populists are on the streets.
The place for caution domestically is in avoiding rigidity and being flexible on detail – not aims. Reframe U-turns into marginal accommodations with good arguments that leave the basic policy intact.
And it is not in our interest to trivialise serious issues with knockabout arguments. Re-armament may lead to job creation possibilities in Barrow in Furness, as a government press release said. But that is not actually the point.
The paradox is that Keir and his ministers are – behind the scenes – actually doing the hard yards. No other party is grappling with the realities of power. We are letting this be a weakness when it should be a strength.
Labour wants a country instilled with the values of fairness, opportunity and democracy. With luck, we might get it. With discord, we won’t. Nor with Reform.
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Leadership challenge, however alluring a fantasy, is a dangerous diversion. Reverse those tanks on the leadership lawn.
And Keir, your ruthlessness got us elected. However painful it is personally, exercise it again now.
You need to up your game. We want you to succeed. We need you to succeed.
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