‘Europe must stand strong on its own as US security guarantees grow conditional’

At last year’s Munich Security Conference, US Vice President JD Vance left us Europeans in a state of shock. His message was clear: The US and Europe no longer shared the same values, and Europe’s decades-long reliance on the US for its security was over.

This year, the Conference felt both more settled and more unsettling.

Settled in that Europe has cycled through the stages of grief into a form of acceptance. Defence spending is now rising fast. New security partnerships are forming, from Norway to Iceland to Japan. The ‘Coalition of the Willing’, led by our Prime Minister alongside President Macron, has taken the defence of Ukraine into its own hands. There is now a settled view, that Europe must be able to protect and defend itself in this world where hard power wins – and fast.

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But unsettling because the world is not what we want it to be and “might is right” is not an agenda of our own making. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking this year, struck a more diplomatic tone than JD Vance, and was met with applause and sighs of relief. But look at the small print. We are allies so long as Europe isn’t “weak”. So long as we don’t continue our “managed decline”. And he’s made very clear what he means by that, from curbing immigration to reversing declining birth rates. We are conditional allies and the US sets the terms.

Foreign affairs can feel remote to our everyday lives. Some say that our Prime Minister spends too long abroad, that we can’t afford to support Ukraine, or that we have to cut the overseas aid budget even further.

But in a time of hard power politics we cannot take anything for granted. If we don’t protect ourselves and our interests abroad we lose the security and the protections we have at home. This was brought home to us in a conversation with a Ukrainian Member of Parliament. Her government is not legislating to bring more children out of poverty, to take money off people’s energy bills, or to reform mental health services, as we have been. The Bills going through her Parliament are to raise funds for weaponry, conscript more people into the armed services, or assist people who have lost their homes and livelihoods in the war.

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And the reality is that the underlying threats to the UK and Ukraine are one and the same.

So where does this leave us?

First, we need absolute clarity on our values as a country. The freedom to think, believe and speak openly, balanced with the responsibility to respect other people. The power of education. The freedom to vote. The knowledge that whoever you are, wherever you were born, and whatever circumstances you were born into, the same rights, responsibilities and opportunities are yours. And the knowledge that if you fall ill, or are harmed, the state will be there to protect you. President Macron was right to speak in Munich about the “DNA of our democracy”.

Unless and until we have this clarity on who we are, we don’t see the threats to it. But the fact is, the threat from Russia and its allies is not just to our security but to our way of life.

Second, we need to double down, urgently, on rebuilding a close partnership with Europe. Keir Starmer was right to say that “we are not the Britain of the Brexit years anymore” and he’s right to push defence-industrial collaboration with Europe with renewed vigour. At Munich it was so clear that European leaders are relieved to have a rational UK government to deal with after the chaotic foreign policy of the Tory years. We’ve made many important steps since being elected, from rejoining the Horizon scheme, to negotiating the UK-EU trade deal, and introducing a new mobility scheme for young people to work, study and travel in Europe.

But this is just the very start. Our shared values must drive us to deeper partnership.

Third, we need to be clear-minded and strategic about evolving threats. Because as we navigate global security, the road we can see ahead is full of landmines. But around the corner it gets even trickier. Whether it’s competition in space, the proliferation of nuclear capabilities or climate change; long term, existential threats are increasing.

One particularly acute question given its speed of development is how we navigate artificial intelligence, which will change international relations and our place in it significantly. In Munich we heard from President Zelensky speak about the AI-controlled drones holding the frontline with Russia but this is just the sharp end; AI is rapidly being woven into the fabric of our lives but many huge issues are still to be dealt with, not least how we will regulate it so that it is safe but innovation can flourish. Deeper collaboration with Europe – which has made some progress towards a shared regulatory regime – may be the right place to start.

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Global security is our security. Threats to our national security are threats to us all as citizens. But if we are robust in the values that guide us, firm in our friendships with allies, starting with Europe, and smart about the threats and opportunities ahead then it’s not too late.

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