‘The hope that kills you’: Reflections from the final day in Gorton and Denton

Once again, I boarded the Avanti West Coast service from London Euston back to my home city of Manchester, ready for my return to the heart of Labour’s crucial by-election in Gorton and Denton.

It was the final day, and still too close to call.

Having spent time in the constituency for Labour’s ‘big campaign day’ just a few Saturdays ago, I had been feeling positive about the level of effort members were putting into the fight for a must-win seat. They had shown unwavering dedication to the cause, regardless of the noise and scandal coming from Westminster. The campaign message was clear; Labour, with candidate Angeliki Stogia, were standing as the party for unity, not division.

This was a message that had been bought into by the membership, no matter who they were. Councillors, Mayors, Members of Parliament, front-benchers, all in attendance. All in good spirits. All ready to have the necessary conversations, no matter how difficult, with members of the voting public on their doorsteps to pass on these words of hope.

That Saturday, it felt good to be a red. But time had passed since then and further developments had transpired that many were concerned could damage the Labour vote.

READ MORE: MPs, union leaders and organisations react to ‘bruising’ Gorton and Denton result

I took time to investigate the messages coming from the constituency while on the train. It became apparent to me that many campaigners were making a similar journey to myself – traveling across the country to get to Gorton and Denton so they could be part of the final day. MPs and activists posing for pics in the pouring rain somewhere in the constituency became more and more frequent across my social media feeds. The campaign centre was bustling with activity and it was non-stop.

I spent much of the day outside the front of the party HQ, watching the ever revolving cycle of activists leaving and returning simultaneously every few minutes. I would ask them to stop and speak to me, to find out what they had picked up on the doorstep and perhaps more importantly, how confident they were feeling. All the answers remained the same: “Positive.”

No one was denying that there was still much work to be done, nor were they suggesting that Labour had this election tied up. However, many activists continued to report that conversations ‘were relatively positive’. I overheard one activist telling another who had just arrived, “one round was medium, one round is the best I’ve done anywhere in a while.” Labour certainly believed they had a chance at victory.

I watched Labour members cheer outside the front of the campaign HQ, as a tannoy projecting popular Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s voice began. One Labour member turned to a friend and was clearly hit by a moment of pure nostalgia as they smiled and commented “just like the old days eh?”

With every round delivered and productive conversation had, the cohort of activists grew increasingly motivated. Cabinet ministers arrived and stopped for selfies and photographs with CLP members, before joining them out on the doorstep.  The hope and togetherness radiating from Labour’s campaign centre was difficult not to get caught up in. It is, after all, the hope that kills you.

Through desire for some expectation management, I began to ask the uncomfortable question: “How much have you encountered the contesting parties?”

It was evident that the Greens had an incredibly strong presence in Gorton. Many Labour activists were telling me that they were bumping into Green campaigners on the same streets, almost as if they were taking it in turns to knock on the same doors within a space of ten minutes. There were also many reports of Green signs spotted around the constituency. I had seen some myself on the drive to the campaign centre.

Reform however, were not reported as knocking on doors. Instead, I was told they had opted to stand by traffic lights and roadsides, holding big signs and banners asking for the public’s vote. Whether this would be enough, time would tell.

Entering the count, the situation remained unclear. No one party was certain that they had won it, though the Greens presented the most confidence out of the three. I could see Green Party leader Zack Polanski speaking with Sky News as I walked in. The sense was one of quiet confidence.

Speaking through the initial phase of verification to Labour sources and fellow journalists from an array of UK media organisations, nothing changed for a long time. Labour remained unsure of the result. The Greens were projecting confidence. There were minimal comments from Reform regarding their performance to begin with. News broke that began to dominate conversations amongst the media representatives in the counting hall, regarding reports from Democracy Volunteers that ‘family voting’ had taken place during the Gorton and Denton by-election. ‘Family voting’ is when two voters either confer, collude or direct each other when casting a vote. This began to set speculation amongst the media. This did not, however, impact how confident anyone was to call the vote.

As time rolled on, Labour’s chances continued to look more uncertain, with the Green’s and Reform both starting to sound like they had grown in confidence.

In no way would a loss for Labour suggest the grassroots campaigners had not tried hard enough with their efforts on the doorstep. Regardless of factional affiliation, Labour members from all areas of the country and all aspects of the party spectrum, came together in Manchester over the last few weeks. There was no infighting when it came to delivering the message for Angeliki Stoiga, that unity and hope should always be fought for over division and hatred.

But, in this case, that message alone was not enough to bring home victory for Labour, finishing third in the by-election behind Reform and the winning Green Party.

Of course, this leaves the party bruised. This is only the second time Labour has come third in a by-election in a Labour-held seat, the last being  the Mitcham and Morden contest of 1982.

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The positive is obviously that we have not seen another Reform UK candidate elected to Parliament. The divisive nature of their hard-right politics has not been able to insert itself into Manchester. As a lad who grew up in Greater Manchester, this personally means a lot to me.

However, it cannot be ignored that Labour spent their campaign efforts trying to paint this by-election as a straight contest between them and Reform, discounting the Greens until the last moment. The result shows that to suggest voting Labour was the only way to keep Reform out, was not successful. Voters chose another way to do just that. For progressive voters that wish to see quick fixes, there is a party promising to do that.

Now in government, Labour bares some of the responsibility for the state of the national situation – regardless of how fair that is considering the fourteen years of damage that took place before them, and the mess they are still tasked with cleaning up. When so many voters feel so disillusioned with that national situation, impacted daily by the cost of living alongside years of damage to public services, impatience rises.

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While Labour’s message in this by-election was to stand for unity and not division and to fight Reform, the messaging perhaps strayed from the initial Labour promise of this government – the promise of change. Losing this part of the message of a vote for Labour also stands for, focusing efforts on Reform without hammering home that another Labour MP means more opportunity for the changes promised just eighteen months ago, is perhaps where the hole in Labour’s approach lies that has allowed votes to leak to the Green Party. But then, it is of course much more difficult to advocate for a narrative of change when you are the ones actually in charge.

Labour now find themselves in a position of needing serious reflection. Nothing can be taken away from the efforts of Angeliki Stogia and all the campaigners who travelled to Gorton and Denton to fight for Labour. They absolutely showed the best of the party in the difficult weeks of this crucial by-election. Unfortunately, no matter how positive their approach to campaigning, when it came to the vote their efforts were not enough to defeat the unpopularity that Labour is currently faced with.

The next steps must not be to spiral or enter the blame game. Think now only of what can be learned and how to move forward.

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