Labour sees polling boost amid Reform slump in opinion polls

Labour has seen a slight bump in opinion polls over the last few weeks, LabourList analysis can reveal.

Over the last several weeks, pollsters have seen Labour’s support increase by as much as four percentage points when compared to earlier in January or late autumn last year.

The gap between Labour and Reform has also narrowed amid a slump for Reform in some recent polls, from just over 11 points to nine.

YouGov’s polling saw an increase in Labour support by four points in January from 17 percent to 21 percent, with the gap between Labour and Reform narrowing to just four points. However, their most recent poll – published earlier this week – recorded a slump back to 19 percent.

Ipsos also saw Labour’s support rise to 22 percent from 18 percent in early November, with the polling gap between Reform and Labour almost halving from 15 points to eight.

Keiran Pedley, UK director of politics for Ipsos, told LabourList: “Whilst our polling has shown a slight narrowing of Reform’s lead since November (and an increase for Labour), it is too early to say if this will be sustained and the wider picture for Labour looks negative.

“Two-thirds disagree the government is competent and no Prime Minister in Ipsos’ polling history, going back to 1978, has polled as badly as Keir Starmer in terms of leader satisfaction.

“That said, with potentially three years to go, of course the next general election is far from settled. Ipsos polling shows the public are split on whether they would prefer Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage as Prime Minister – and 58 percent disagree that Reform UK is ready for government.

“Governing parties have been further behind in the polls and gone on to win, so in theory so could Labour – although there is no political law of physics that says things must improve either.”

Labour may find some solace in David Cameron, who faced a polling deficit of up to 14 points three years before the 2015 general election. However, the Conservatives went onto secure a majority government with an increased share of the vote and more seats, largely at the expense of their Liberal Democrat coalition partners.

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