Makerfield or Breakerfield

Andy Burnham has been officially selected as Labour’s candidate for the Makerfield by-election. So begins a test of his ability to reconnect Labour with parts of working-class northern England that once formed the bedrock of its political identity.

Burnham himself has framed the decision to stand in stark terms. In his own words, he is stepping forward to “save Labour”. 

The local election results across Wigan were devastating for the party. The trend is harder to ignore. In communities that the party once instinctively understood, voters have drifted. Not necessarily ideologically, but emotionally. The old assumptions of loyalty no longer hold. Increasingly, there is a sense that Labour no longer understands people’s everyday experiences. It is, worryingly, Reform UK who have found a way to resonate with communities frustrated by stagnation, political detachment and a Westminster system that feels distant from ordinary lives.

READ MORE: Andy Burnham confirmed as Labour’s Makerfield candidate

That is what makes Makerfield such a consequential battleground. Labour should know how to win here. It has generations of history, roots and organisation in the area. Yet familiarity alone is no longer enough.

Burnham’s candidacy is, of course, about much more than one parliamentary seat. There are constant conversations around a longer-term ambition to challenge Keir Starmer, as Burnham positions himself as an alternative with a different vision for Labour and the country. 

We must be clear now that LabourList takes no view on that question. Our job is to report what happens and what is being said as it happens – impartially and factually.  

What is undoubtedly true, however, is that the whole Labour Party, including Starmer himself, will want to win this by-election decisively. Losing Makerfield with Burnham as a candidate would be politically seismic. 

Winning it comfortably, meanwhile, would allow Labour to argue that it can still land its message in northern, working-class communities that increasingly seem to identify more strongly with Reform’s critique of the political system. 

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If Burnham wins, his by-election campaign will be studied to see how it could be replicated across the country in order to keep Nigel Farage out of Number 10. Burnham’s role will be front and centre of that.

But to lose would leave the party in nothing short of a complete and utter mess. It would demonstrate that dissatisfaction with Labour outweighs any change Burnham might represent. When so many MPs, factions and members have put all their eggs in the Burnham basket, the political fallout from a loss is difficult to comprehend. The stakes really are as high as they have ever been for Labour. This by-election truly is existential.  

Perhaps the most interesting dynamic is that Burnham’s appeal may not be entirely distinct from the emotional terrain Reform has successfully occupied. Burnham talks about a Westminster that is not working for ordinary people. He argues that politics has become too remote, too centralised and too incapable of solving problems that communities live with daily. His answer, unlike Reform’s, is not to rely on protest and cultivating anger but advocating for reconstruction. 

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Crucially, authenticity matters. Burnham enters this race not as a parachuted politician but as someone who can plausibly call the constituency home. He is a northern figure with sky-high name recognition and polling. He is conversational, familiar and grounded. More importantly, he arrives with evidence to support his argument. As Mayor of Greater Manchester, he can point to a city region that has become the fastest-growing in the country while much of Britain has struggled economically and politically to find momentum.

His campaign launch video captured this instinctively. It was polished without feeling overproduced and personal without ever appearing to push sentimentality for the camera’s benefit alone. It showcased Burnham interacting naturally with local people, foregrounded his back story and connection to the area, and cleverly leaned into regional identity through the use of Oasis, James and Elbow as backing music. I loved it and can’t wait to head home and campaign for Andy. 

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