‘The lessons Labour can take from the Tories over changing leaders’

The Makerfield by-election result resulted in a strong victory for Andy Burnham.

The, soon-to-be former, Mayor of Greater Manchester’s commanding victory has already prompted a fresh round of commentary about succession, with around a quarter of the PLP calling on Keir Starmer to set out the timetable for his departure. 

Such debates are hardly unusual for governing parties facing political headwinds. Between 2016 and 2024, the Conservatives had five leaders: David Cameron, Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak. In less than a decade, Britain saw a revolving door at the top of government. By the time of the 2024 general election, many voters had simply lost confidence that the Conservatives could provide the stability the country needed.

Of course, changing leader is sometimes necessary. Political parties cannot ignore reality. Theresa May lost the Conservatives’ parliamentary majority in 2017 and struggled to break the Brexit deadlock. However, Boris Johnson went on to secure a substantial majority in 2019. Looking at this in isolation shows that leadership changes can reset a political party’s fortunes when circumstances demand it.

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But the Conservative experience also demonstrates the limits of treating leadership change as a cure-all. Each new leader arrived promising a fresh start. Each was presented as the answer to the party’s problems. Yet constant change ultimately became part of the problem itself. Voters began to see a party that was looking inward rather than focusing on the country.

This is an important lesson for Labour today. Discussions about Keir Starmer often focus on the fact that he has been Prime Minister for only two years. Yet he has led the Labour Party since 2020. He has already spent six years building and reshaping the party, taking it from opposition to government and delivering one of Labour’s most significant election victories in modern history. Members of the party should reflect on this as a whole when deciding if change is needed.

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Whether people agree with every decision made by the government is beside the point. The question is what voters generally look for when deciding whether to renew a government’s mandate. History suggests that they want competence, stability and a sense that the country is moving in the right direction.

The Conservatives spent years changing leaders in search of a solution. In the end, voters concluded that instability itself had become the problem. Labour should be careful not to forget that lesson.

Governments inevitably face difficult periods. Poll ratings rise and fall. Internal frustrations emerge. Political commentators speculate. But leadership stability should not be discarded lightly. The public has already shown what it thinks of parties that are constantly looking for a different face at the top.

The lesson from the Conservatives’ downfall is not that leaders should never change. It is that successful governments earn re-election by demonstrating progress and stability, not by repeatedly pressing the reset button.

The next election will not be won because Labour has discovered a new slogan or designed their policy announcement graphics differently. It will be won if voters believe that Britain is on a positive trajectory and that the government has a credible plan to continue that progress. Does that come through a change of leader? Time will tell.

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