‘The Burnham bounce and beyond’

So often did the Tories replace prime ministers that if a revolving door had been fitted to No.10, it would have been heralded by HM Treasury as a marvel of efficiency and used as a template for economic success. Five prime ministers in seven years had left the public nauseous at the constant churn.

Labour promised the remedy.  No more churn. Only there would be.

On 4th July 2024, the public thrust power upon Labour and made Sir Keir Starmer the UK’s sixth prime minister in eight years.  The only thing left churning were Tory MPs.

Fast forward two years.

The UK will soon have its seventh prime minister in ten years and if a general election were held tomorrow, it would likely be Labour MPs doing the churning. 

READ MORE: The admission that explains Starmer’s downfall

If Labour’s promise were a mirror held up to itself, what would stare back would not just crack, but shatter it to a thousand pieces and with little idea of where the dustpan and brush were kept.

Keir Starmer, who had vowed to fight on as prime minister despite a barrage of right jabs, left hooks and head jolting uppercuts, landed mostly from his own red corner, had decided he’d better throw in the towel rather than be knocked out later.

And then politicians wonder why the public don’t trust them.

Trust in politicians doesn’t just matter, it is the matter upon which everything else matters.

If the public don’t trust politicians, they won’t trust the politics they practice or the policies they preach and when that happens, all hope of trust restored may as well go back in time and board the Titanic.

And so, for Andy Burnham, ‘King of the North’ and soon to be ‘King of the Kingdom’, rebuilding trust must be his number one and defining political priority.

Yes, Burnham is amiable, personable and likeable.  He has charm, he has charisma and the public seem to like the eyelashes and black (or navy blue) t-shirts. But being liked and having personality, should not be confused with being trusted.

To restore trust, Burnham must in his first one hundred, of the one thousand days between now and the next general election, say what he will do, and do what he will say – every day.

As I said to many an undecided voter when out canvassing in 2024, nothing changes if nothing changes.

And so, Burnham must make it plain for working people to see how things will change to makes things better. He must wrestle power from the clenched fists of a few in Westminster and hand it to the open arms of the many up and down the land. He must promote the positive change that devolving power will bring to the lives of people in places that had felt forgotten and he must give them a megaphone so they can yell about the things in their places that are now better.

Burnham can restore trust by being bold, being brave and being belligerent in strengthening the Employment Rights Act, protecting further the working rights of working people. He can restore trust by bearing down on the cost of living by reducing the cost of the weekly shop, of filling up the car and of paying the gas and electric bill.

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And he can pay for those things by taxing the excess profits of big banks and big energy, made from doing little more than watching from the side-lines as interest rates rose and food and energy costs soared as a result of global economic shocks that drove hardship and sacrifice into working people’s homes.

But perhaps first of all, he can restore trust by unfreezing the extended freeze to PAYE thresholds particularly at the lower rate; a freeze Labour castigated in opposition, and then implemented in power. When even Larry the cat knows freezing PAYE thresholds is an income tax rise by stealth, there’s little point in trying to defend it as anything else.

Burnham should be brave when turning his attention to addressing generational inequality.

When around 70% of the nation’s wealth is hoarded by those aged 65 and over and only 3% is cradled in the arms of those aged under 25, is it any wonder young people feel there is little hope of ever owning a home, or in having enough to have a comfortable life. If young people fear for their future, then one day all any of us will have left is the past. Burnham needs not just to offer the seed of hope to our young, he has to set that seed, nurture it, water it and place it in the sunlight so that it can grow.

As the keys to Downing Street (and to No.10 North) are handed over, there will undoubtedly be a ‘Burnham bounce.’ That bounce should give Burnham some time and space to begin the long journey to restore trust.

The question that needs answering though is not how high can the Burnham bounce, bounce, but how long can the Burnham bounce keep bouncing.

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