You are here: Home » Comment »

Boris widens his lead – but this race is still about turnout

April 30, 2012 9:23 am

Author:

Tags:

Share this Article

The latest YouGov poll for the Evening Standard has Boris Johnson leading by 4 points with just three days to go in the London Mayoral contest*.

Last week the gap was just 2 points.

YouGov polls are taken particularly seriously in Mayoral elections because they have a track record of accuracy. Last time around they were predicting a Boris Johnson win when others were predicting a tie or a Ken win. So being behind with YouGov is bad news.

Yet in reality, this poll isn’t much worse than the poll so many people were getting excited about last week. That was 51-49, so Boris is up one and Ken is down one.

That’s real margin of error stuff.

There are still two (linked) things that can swing this election Livingstone’s way. Firstly – relentlessly focussing on the Labour brand in the final days. Labour still leads by 16% in the capital. Livingstone’s campaign have been doing this more and more in recent weeks, and have reaped the benefit – today’s poll shows Labour voters are returning to Ken – but so far it’s still a trickle rather than a torrent. “Clothes peg” and “Boris Bonus” aside, if the Labour vote turns out for Livingstone, he’ll win.

That’s where the second potential wildcard of this election comes in – turnout, and specifically “Get Out The Vote”. The Labour campaign has been focused from day one on organisation on the ground, collecting voter ID and turning out the Labour vote in areas that have often been ignored by the party. At the last count there were 54 people working full-time on the Livingstone campaign, a large chunk of whom are organising in the outer London boroughs. Anecdotally, in my (usually true blue) corner of outer London, Labour has been working hard, and the Tories have been invisible, save for a few Boris leaflets.

In an election that could (and should) still come down to turnout, the ability to get the Labour vote out both in solid Labour areas, and areas where Labour candidates are rare as hen’s teeth will be a deciding factor.

Decisions made about campaign priorities 18 months ago could still swing this for Ken.

It’s advantage Boris, no doubt, but for Ken – the game is still on.

* – I can’t find the tables online to see if there are any strange results by borough like last week’s ComRes. If there are I’ll let you know.

20120430-092323.jpg

Related posts:

  1. Boris is back in the lead – but what’s below the top line?
  2. Boris retains poll lead – but 78% believe he is Mayor for the rich
  3. Boris outmaneuvered by Labour activists
  4. Poll List: Tory lead widens to 9 points in new ICM poll
  5. That famous Boris Johnson temper
  • http://twitter.com/RobbieScott100 Robbie Scott

    You 

  • http://twitter.com/RobbieScott100 Robbie Scott

    I don’t think we need the spiel which based on anything concrete –  the title is very misleading. I really hope the party can come up with a last minute something/anything that can capture the imagination of our core vote and Londoners in general. So far the campaign seems  totally technocratic and policy wonkish.  

  • John P Reid

    All though Labour got an Extra Assembly memeber on the top up poll in 2008 (8) than 2004 (7) it was Because it was A celar choice between Ken adn Boris, (Ukip getting members in 2004, due to it boeng the same day as the Euro election) Labur’s tipped to get even more this time) Not because our votes expected to go up, but becuase the tory one will collpase (This is becuase million sof people who didn’t vote at all in 2004 came out in droves to vote Boris in 2008) If Boris wins it’ll be on a very low turnout 

  • AnotherOldBoy

    The point you made last time about odd results in particular boroughs was demolished by the authoritative UK Polling Report: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/5255
     
    It won’t get any more valid no matter how many times you repeat it.
     
    And Boris does best among the older voters who are the age group most likely to vote.

    It looks like curtains for Ken.

  • http://twitter.com/robertsjonathan Jonathan Roberts

    It’s going to be a fascinating few days. Whilst I know it’s impractical, it’s sad we don’t find out the result on the same day. I love the all-night orgy of political geekery watching the news coverage with Dimbleby et al. 

    You’re right Mark – voter turnout is crucial, and I suspect Ken’s GOTV will be better organised, making this a very tight race.

    • treborc1

       Bloody hell you have changed your tune.

      • http://twitter.com/robertsjonathan Jonathan Roberts

        I’ve made no comment before on my enjoyment of election0night broadcasting. And saying Ken has a well organised campaign on the ground does not mean i think he is any good as a candidate.  So nothing I wrote above can be construed as changing my tune. It was a politically neutral comment – I’ve made my feelings on Ken clear elsewhere.

        • treborc1

          yes you have mate.

  • Peter Barnard

    You are correct about GOTV, Mark.
     
    In two wards that we took from the Conservatives in Chester last year (we took five altogether in Chester, and 18 or so across the Unitary Authority), the turn-out from our “Labour promises” was about 65% vs about 40% across the wards vs 25 – 30% from the uncontacted/againsts/undecideds.
     
    I label it, “The Power of Voter ID.”
     
    However, Voter ID and GOTV only occurs when there are boots and shoes on the ground … if the voting intentions are as close as is being reported, Mr Livingston has a chance.

  • Amber Star

    Mark, the YG tables are up now. The YG tables don’t have an analysis by borough.

  • Amber Star

    I’d say Ken has closed on Boris. ComRes & Survation were giving Boris an 8 point lead. This has narrowed to 4 points. A 2% swing is all the Ken needs. Ed M & the London Labour MPs, many of whom are genuinely popular in their constituencies & beyond, can help Ken to win this.

    If Labour can pinch this from Boris, the Tory dominos will really begin to fall. Go team Ken!

    • AnotherOldBoy

      Problem is that YouGov had Boris only 2% ahead last week and LabourList dismissed the subsequent polls showing Ken 8% behind as rogue, suggesting that YouGov were more reliable.  Now YouGov have moved against Ken: ‘mene mene tekel upharsin’.

  • derek

    Man up the polling stations, get labour minded children and parents out with the banners! (will you vote against my future because I wont have one under Boris) On the day, get the cars out picking up the votes, get busy being positive, there are many who will hit that brick -wall as they approach the polling station make sure they come through with labour as their choice, man up! it’s a fight we need to win for Londoners and the peoples of the uk and remember, Boris is a Tory, a blue rosetted Tory from head to feet.

Latest

  • Featured The Loneliness of the Long Distance Leader

    The Loneliness of the Long Distance Leader

    By Stefan Stern

    That’s it. Enough is enough. I try to be reasonable. But you can only push somebody so far. It’s time to sort this out once and for all. I am fed up with this huge and growing army of sycophants and cheerleaders constantly bigging up Ed Miliband, and making helpful or supportive interventions on his behalf. The list is endless. Let’s shine a spotlight on the guilty men and women. There’s… well, there’s… er… you know… er… thingy… on a [...]

    Read more →
  • Comment Europe We do not stigmatise your country, Deputy Prime Minister. It is you and your party we find distasteful

    We do not stigmatise your country, Deputy Prime Minister. It is you and your party we find distasteful

    By Rob Marchant

    Last Saturday a senior European politician wrote an article in the British press which made you want to shout at the computer screen. Not such an unusual event, you might think, but this was not a debater’s disagreement as one might have had with the viewpoint of a Tory, a Gaullist or a Christian Democrat. It was one which also left the reader feeling a bit nauseous. And that is because, rather than an honestly-expressed case justified with some evidence, it was [...]

    Read more →
  • News Watson urges investigation of “supressed” Leveson evidence – Media roundup: May 21st, 2013

    Watson urges investigation of “supressed” Leveson evidence – Media roundup: May 21st, 2013

    Subscribers to our morning email get the best of LabourList – including the Media and blog round up – every weekday morning. If you were a subscriber you would have already received this in your inbox. You can sign up here. Labour proposes teachers spend time in industry “All teachers involved in vocational education would have to spend a period of each year in industry, under Labour plans to integrate further education with emerging skills gaps identified by businesses. The strategy – announced on [...]

    Read more →
  • Featured Is party politics dying out?

    Is party politics dying out?

    By Mark Ferguson

    This week has brought the role of party members and activists back to the front pages. That’s rather unusual to be honest – and rightly so, as party members (swivel eyed and otherwise) make up only 1% of the British population. Being a party member is already a niche interest. You are somewhat odd if you’re a party member – sorry to break that to you, but of course I’m odd too (and quite possibly odder than you). What swivel-eyed [...]

    Read more →
  • News Labour Equal marriage amendment gets Tory backing

    Labour Equal marriage amendment gets Tory backing

    From: HERBERT, Nick Sent: 20 May 2013 16:29 To: HERBERT, Nick Subject: Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Bill – voting today   Dear Colleague Thank you for your support for the Marriage (Same Sex Couples) Bill at Second Reading. You will be aware of the amendments tabled by Tim Loughton and others (new Clauses 10 & 11) to extend civil partnerships to heterosexual couples I have no issue with the principle of this proposal, but I am very worried that adding this measure to the [...]

    Read more →