You are here: Home » Comment »

It’s time to hear Labour’s plan for the recovery

October 26, 2012 10:56 am

Author:

Tags:

Share this Article

In Ben Goldacre’s bestselling book, Bad Science, he explains how quack treatments appear to heal people.

“Illnesses are bad… and then they get better. It’s quite natural that when your symptoms are at their very worse, you will do things to try to get better…You might sacrifice a goat and dangle its entrails around your neck…. Then, when you get better… you will naturally assume that whatever you did when your symptoms were at their worst must be the reason for your recovery.”

The maltreatment given by George Osborne and the government to the UK economy is no different. With the double dip recession deep enough that in July this year, GDP was smaller than when the Coalition took power in 2010, during which point even the majority of the troubled Eurozone was in growth, it should come as no surprise that figures released on Thursday show the UK too has bounced back slightly.

This will not stop the Coalition government boasting, and believing, that they have fixed all of Britain’s economic woes. Like the phony doctor insisting that leeching a patient has cured them of their disease, be in no doubt that Cameron and Osborne will loudly proclaim that their program of austerity has been successful. Ignoring wise counsel from Tim Montgomerie to strike a “somber tone” on growth, the Prime Minister opted for an ebullient, Brownesque, chant of the latest statistics at PMQs on Wednesday.

There is little doubt that the 2015 election will be fought almost solely on the state of the economy. The problem for Labour is that if a recovery occurs, Cameron and the Conservatives will be boosted and claim that austerity worked. A ‘say it ain’t so’ response from Labour to good economic news is a mistake. LabourList editor Mark Ferguson’s article on why Labour shouldn’t panic  is in danger of making this error. Blaming the Olympics and talking about past bank holidays past is reminiscent of George Osborne’s excuse that a period of snow and bad weather caused the second economic dip. Any charge leveled at Labour that we hope for bad economic news for political gain would be toxic.

If Miliband and Balls attempt to play battle of the statistics against the Conservatives they will lose the debate on the recovery in the same way that we were seen to lose the debate on the deficit and the recession. If we mark the government’s success by old economic indicators of growth and employment without looking at what kind of the growth and what quality employment our own message will fail to cut through. No-one woke up richer on Thursday morning because the economy accelerated slightly. As both Mark and Tim both rightly point out in their articles, families in Britain have taken an enormous hit in their real terms income. Successive reports by the IFS show that the median income in Britain is falling.

Ed Miliband’s speech at Labour Party conference powerfully set out the principles our party would seek to govern on. But unless we hear more about what a Labour Britain would look like in practice, we will be drowned out by the Tories boasting of their own success. It’s easier to create insecure, low paid jobs than stable, well paid ones and it’s easier to follow a model of growth that concentrates wealth at top. But it doesn’t make people’s lives better.

Labour have had a good few months. But laughing at the omnishambles won’t cut it. We need a co-ordinated, radical plan for what our party would do in government. Only then can we defeat Cameron’s charge that Labour hopes for economic woe and misfortune because we have nothing else to say.

Related posts:

  1. Britain’s economic recovery has ground to a halt
  2. The media will focus on Murdoch, Labour must make the economy the story
  3. George Osborne: wrong on the recession, wrong on recovery
  4. What happened to our Private-Sector led recovery?
  5. Why flying is actually the road to recovery
  • ianandmurphy

    A very interesting article that offered some useful insights into the current debate. It’s very frustrating that the Tories have managed to make the ‘it’s Labour’s mess’ mantra stick so we have to be make sure that we offer a positive vision to sell to the public. Statistical arguments rarely get understood by the public so we have to put it across in such a way that it appeals to them.

  • DanMcCurry

    Alternatively, your argument could be giving the Tories a stick to beat us with, Gus. 

  • Andrew McKay

    I hope Labour can come out with a credible alternative and not lower ourselves to a “fighting the cuts” slogan.

    The too far and too fast mantra must be a thing of the past if we are to win in 2015.

  • http://twitter.com/johnringer John Ringer

    That’s all fine, Gus, but what’s the hurry? We’re only little more than half way through this Parliament; do we really want to give the Tories 2.5 years to do a line-by-line analysis of our manifesto? Do we want to commit ourselves to a plan that will most likely be obsolete by 2015 anyway?

    The small doses of policy coming from Ed Balls’s office along the lines of “if we were in government *now* (which we aren’t, by the way) we’d do X, Y and Z” are probably enough for now, in my opinion.

  • http://twitter.com/johnringer John Ringer

    That’s all fine, Gus, but what’s the hurry? We’re only little more than half way through this Parliament; do we really want to give the Tories 2.5 years to do a line-by-line analysis of our manifesto? Do we want to commit ourselves to a plan that will most likely be obsolete by 2015 anyway?

    The small doses of policy coming from Ed Balls’s office along the lines of “if we were in government *now* (which we aren’t, by the way) we’d do X, Y and Z” are probably enough for now, in my opinion.

  • http://twitter.com/johnringer John Ringer

    That’s all fine, Gus, but what’s the hurry? We’re only little more than half way through this Parliament; do we really want to give the Tories 2.5 years to do a line-by-line analysis of our manifesto? Do we want to commit ourselves to a plan that will most likely be obsolete by 2015 anyway?

    The small doses of policy coming from Ed Balls’s office along the lines of “if we were in government *now* (which we aren’t, by the way) we’d do X, Y and Z” are probably enough for now, in my opinion.

  • http://twitter.com/johnringer John Ringer

    That’s all fine, Gus, but what’s the hurry? We’re only little more than half way through this Parliament; do we really want to give the Tories 2.5 years to do a line-by-line analysis of our manifesto? Do we want to commit ourselves to a plan that will most likely be obsolete by 2015 anyway?

    The small doses of policy coming from Ed Balls’s office along the lines of “if we were in government *now* (which we aren’t, by the way) we’d do X, Y and Z” are probably enough for now, in my opinion.

    • Jeremy_Preece

      I fully understand why you would think this way John, but the truth is that following your logic to its conclusion, the answer would be to say nothing and just sit in silence until just before the next election. That way we could never say anything in opposition that could later be criticised.
      That would also mean that we had nothing to say, nothing to add and nothing to contribute. We would look like we had  dissapeared, and come the next election, when we lost a load of seats, thne we really would vanish.

      Mind you, it would also be worth remining Cameron and Osborne that in opposition they promissed to match Labour’s spending on public sector, and fought against any form of control of the banking sector whatsoever.  

    • Jeremy_Preece

      I fully understand why you would think this way John, but the truth is that following your logic to its conclusion, the answer would be to say nothing and just sit in silence until just before the next election. That way we could never say anything in opposition that could later be criticised.
      That would also mean that we had nothing to say, nothing to add and nothing to contribute. We would look like we had  dissapeared, and come the next election, when we lost a load of seats, thne we really would vanish.

      Mind you, it would also be worth remining Cameron and Osborne that in opposition they promissed to match Labour’s spending on public sector, and fought against any form of control of the banking sector whatsoever.  

      • robertcp

        As John said, Labour is saying what they would do now but it is very difficult for them to say what they will do in the very different circumstances of 2015.  Your last paragraph is an example of politicians looking silly if what they are saying becomes obsolete.

    • robertcp

      I agree John.  I also notice that Gus calls for a plan but does not say very much about what should be in it! 

  • http://twitter.com/johnringer John Ringer

    That’s all fine, Gus, but what’s the hurry? We’re only little more than half way through this Parliament; do we really want to give the Tories 2.5 years to do a line-by-line analysis of our manifesto? Do we want to commit ourselves to a plan that will most likely be obsolete by 2015 anyway?

    The small doses of policy coming from Ed Balls’s office along the lines of “if we were in government *now* (which we aren’t, by the way) we’d do X, Y and Z” are probably enough for now, in my opinion.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_ZPXYLRVP4XOIGGDJWAL6HUO7U4 David

    Spot on analysis

  • trotters1957

    There is absolutely no chance of an economic recovery before 2015 without a huge change in government policy.
    Growth comes from four areas: Consumption, Investment, Exports, and Government Borrowing.
    If you can see any of those recovering any time soon let us know.

  • Jeremy_Preece

    Gus, this is really just what I have been thinking (and commenting) for months and months.
    I think that there was a universal sense of relief across the party when Ed Milliband gave us a working title for Labour policy as well as a few very high level pointers. It was a start.

    The point is that even when things are going badly for the Tories, we have to be able to answer the question -”what would your lot do about it?” and “what would Labour do that is any different/better?” For this reason we need to have some credible answers, even of not detailed, then we need to have the outlines of the sort of approach that we would take. So if somethings seem to be going well for the Tories then we would be really stuffed.

    You are right about laughing at the shambles will not cut it. In fact it turns voters off and seems to make them think that we have nothing to offer, and if anything reinforces the view that in politics “they are all the same” so why even bother to vote.

    If we can set out some flagship policies then we have a direction and some meat on the bones. If we have an alternative, then we will not look like a negative influnce that simply relies on economic bad news in order to stand a chance.

    We have lost ground economically by allowing the Tories to blame Labour for a world-wide bankng crisis that started in the USA. As a result of not challenging this, and making lame statements such “Mistakes were made” and hoping that the issue of our economic credibility will go away by itself, because the voters will forget abou it, has really helped us to be stuck in this awful position.

    Yes Gus, it is some Labour policies and ideas that will help break that notion that we are irrelevant. And above all, however bad the Tories are, the poll leads will melt away as we approach an election if we are simply “the not the Tories party” and we haven’t exactly specified what we actaully are.

     

    • Colin Gilbey

      I am ecstatic at finding I am no longer alone.  Now there are 3 0f us.  The Labour Party has got to wake up and fast.   

    • blondebuster

      Northern Rock and RBS were totally home grown banking crashes, the result of failed regulation, as Balls has belatedly acknowledged.
      Trying to rewrite history is no basis for developing a credible economic policy.

  • rekrab

    So what has the party that say’s it represents the workers said about Ford factory closures?
    Ain’t it the truth that austerity kills skilled jobs.It seems to me that the labour party would rather talk about career positions and a lot of silly meaningless words rather the the real issues. 

  • rekrab

    So what has the party that say’s it represents the workers said about Ford factory closures?
    Ain’t it the truth that austerity kills skilled jobs.It seems to me that the labour party would rather talk about career positions and a lot of silly meaningless words rather the the real issues. 

  • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

    Gus, I like a lot of what you say (especially the Goldacre quotation), but would like to query this:

    “There is little doubt that the 2015 election will be fought almost solely on the state of the economy.”

    Do you mean that *you* have little doubt about this? Is this the prevailing group-think in Westminster or somewhere else or amongst a certain group of people? Or is it because you would *like* it to be the main issue? [a kind of version of Predict and Provide where we predict something and then put in place the necessary things for it to be the case, thereby making the prediction right – basically creating the group-think).

    How do you or I or anyone else be confident that a single issue will decide an election as you assume? Are the voters such unthinking robots that they will not even bear in mind the NHS, public services, welfare reform, tax rates and everything else that makes up the world of politics? And they will ignore personalities and leadership qualities and just that feeling they have that different parties are for or against them?….Personally I don’t buy it.

  • http://twitter.com/bencobley Ben Cobley

    Gus, I like a lot of what you say (especially the Goldacre quotation), but would like to query this:

    “There is little doubt that the 2015 election will be fought almost solely on the state of the economy.”

    Do you mean that *you* have little doubt about this? Is this the prevailing group-think in Westminster or somewhere else or amongst a certain group of people? Or is it because you would *like* it to be the main issue? [a kind of version of Predict and Provide where we predict something and then put in place the necessary things for it to be the case, thereby making the prediction right – basically creating the group-think).

    How do you or I or anyone else be confident that a single issue will decide an election as you assume? Are the voters such unthinking robots that they will not even bear in mind the NHS, public services, welfare reform, tax rates and everything else that makes up the world of politics? And they will ignore personalities and leadership qualities and just that feeling they have that different parties are for or against them?….Personally I don’t buy it.

  • Monkey_Bach

    Why not use benefit claimants as fuel in the furnaces of old coal fired power stations to generate cheap electricity? Eeek. You could lower the welfare bill and at least one utility bill for hard-working families, killing two birds with one stone as you poor humans say. Eeek. No less cruel but twice as economical as far as braining birds with stones is concerned. Eeek. Nobody cares about what happens to benefit claimants after all and if they happen to have big carbon footprints you’ll be being kind of eco-friendly too. As far as I can see it’s a win-win-win. Eeek.  

    (I am Liam Byrne’s nephew by the way.)

  • Monkey_Bach

    Why not use benefit claimants as fuel in the furnaces of old coal fired power stations to generate cheap electricity? Eeek. You could lower the welfare bill and at least one utility bill for hard-working families, killing two birds with one stone as you poor humans say. Eeek. No less cruel but twice as economical as far as braining birds with stones is concerned. Eeek. Nobody cares about what happens to benefit claimants after all and if they happen to have big carbon footprints you’ll be being kind of eco-friendly too. As far as I can see it’s a win-win-win. Eeek.  

    (I am Liam Byrne’s nephew by the way.)

  • Carolekins

    We have to walk a thin tightrope between not giving the Tories enough rope to hang us with and chucking some red meat to the troops.  I would’t like to have to do it.

  • Carolekins

    We have to walk a thin tightrope between not giving the Tories enough rope to hang us with and chucking some red meat to the troops.  I would’t like to have to do it.

  • postageincluded

    The election will be in May 2015. The campaign will begin in earnest in probably in May 2014. It will be excessively long, expensive and bloody due to the stupid and self serving fixed-term parliament act. Labour will have few advantages, and for all we know Clegg and Cameron may have agreed an electoral pact – formal or informal. One of the few advantages that an opposition has in any parliament is that they don’t have to constantly give hostages to fortune in the form of policy commitments . Why are you so in favour of giving this advantage away?

  • Amber_Star

    A single, lowest possible tariff for domestic utilities – Labour should have insisted that Cameron follow through on his boast; Labour should have said: Do it, Dave. Do it now!

    Instead Labour said it was unworkable because it was anti-competition. When Labour swing & miss at sitters like this one - which we could be hitting out of the park – voters are simply baffled. Labour need to stop sending reassuring signals to big business & start sending out a clear message that we are on the side of the people!!!

  • Jeremy_Preece

    Sorry that it has taken so long to respond, but no Colin we are not alone. I also heard much of the same from other members of the party when I was in the Bracknell CLP.

    Clearly we are on the same wavelength. Labour has got to wake up and start looking like tomorrow’s government. It is amazing that the Labour poll lead is only around 10%, at this stage, if we were doing well with the current performance of the Tory party Labour should be twenty-something points in the lead.

    Just about evryone I spoke to who say EM’s conference speech felt that someone had changed our leader’s batteries and he showed real signs of life. That momentum needs to be maintained and built upon. We need direction, policy and enough passion to cut through the bias of the press. Then we could be on our way.

  • Jeremy_Preece

    But at the very least Labour should be constantly reminding the Tories that while Labour’s banking controls were wey too weak, the Tories (especially the current front bench) pushed for no banking controls whatsoever.
    Cameron also promised to match Labour’s spending.

    It is the Tories who are rewriting history by presenting Labour as the guys who got it all wrong and themselves as the only party with credible economic record.

    My point is that this is the very lie that is prepetuated by the Tories and has been drip-fed to the voting public via the media.

Latest

  • Comment The culture of high risk credit is being exploited by betting shops

    The culture of high risk credit is being exploited by betting shops

    By Matthew Zarb-Cousin

    Since the financial crisis, the perfect storm of recession and banks restricting access to credit has led to the rise of payday lenders. Our high streets are slowly deteriorating from the vibrant, diverse places they once were into an abyss of pawnbrokers, payday loan shops and bookies. The three feed off of each other, targeting some of our most deprived areas and perpetuating a cycle of despair driven by the need for extra income. Research carried out by Geofutures found [...]

    Read more →
  • Comment Should people be asked if they are party supporters when they register to vote?

    Should people be asked if they are party supporters when they register to vote?

    Chris Clark and Rav Seeruthun on a small change that if adopted, would free activists to spend more time on community work Every year at party conferences we hear professional politicians eulogise hard-working party volunteers. And there’s no activity more often evoked than that of ‘knocking on doors’. It’s a common delusion that the purpose of doorstep canvassing is to ‘persuade’ voters. Having taken part in our fair share of Labour canvassing sessions, we’ve both had the dispiriting experience of [...]

    Read more →
  • Europe Featured You can always rely on the Conservatives to ignore the public when it comes to Europe

    You can always rely on the Conservatives to ignore the public when it comes to Europe

    By Douglas Alexander

    Europe is not often the issue which comes top of people’s concerns on the doorstep. Nor do opinion polls suggest that Europe is a priority for voters when compared to issues like the economy or jobs. But you can always rely on the Conservatives to ignore the public when it comes to Europe. This week saw over a hundred Conservative MPs rebel and vote against their own Queens Speech. They were angry that it hadn’t included a bill which would [...]

    Read more →
  • News Seats and Selections Vicky Foxcroft selected as Labour’s PPC for Lewisham Deptford

    Vicky Foxcroft selected as Labour’s PPC for Lewisham Deptford

    Vicky Foxcroft has been selected by Lewisham Deptford CLP as the party’s candidate for 2015 at a selection meeting this afternoon. Here’s a brief biography: Vicky grew up in the North West in a single parent household, and was the first person in her family to go to university. She has held many positions in the party including Chair of Labour Students, has sat on the National Policy Forum and is currently a local councillor and is Chair of Lewisham [...]

    Read more →
  • Comment Labour’s future schools policy: why accountability matters

    Labour’s future schools policy: why accountability matters

    By Mike Ion

    Stephen Twigg, Labour’s Shadow Education Secretary is one of the more thoughtful and pragmatic individuals to hold this vitally important brief for some time. To his credit Stephen has been out and about these past two years listening to pupils, teachers, parents and governors and finding out more about the challenges they face on a day-to-day basis. In addition Stephen has been looking closely at some local, regional, national and international programmes that have had a demonstrable impact in raising [...]

    Read more →