This is how badly the Lib Dems did (and the Tories weren’t much better)

November 30, 2012 10:02 am

There were four parties who stood in all three by-elections yesterday. Here’s the total number of votes received by each of those parties:

Of course all of the seats were “safe” for Labour – but this will still make fairly glum ready for Nick and Dave…

  • Jeremy_Preece

    This is the sort of statistics that make you want to jump up and down with joy. However there is no room to sit back and think that we are on our way.
    Congratuations to all three Labour candidates. But let’s also consider a few health warnings:
    1. The turnout was very low. Since this was not a by election that would change the balance of power in Westminster or change the government it was a totally different animal from a general election.
    a) It is quite likely that a large number of Tory voters stayed at home. This would probably not be the case in a General Election.
    b) We have not had a real surge of the number of people who vote Labour.
    c) There were a lot of protest votes, UKIP and Respect, but more than that the number of people who refused to vote for anyone.
    In short, this is not a huge ringing endorsement for Labour. What would have been a ringing endorsement would have been a really high turnout with the same sort of percentages that Labour got.
    2. The Tories are now at a crossroads. The Daily Mail type Tory voter now seems to rather vote for UKIP than Tory. This is not necesserily great news for Labour unless it were repeated at a General Election:
    a) Some UKIP voters might vote differently in a General Election – probably Tory, whereas a by election is a great opportunity to register a protest.
    b) Cameron is basically an opportunist rather than a man of great over-arching principles. Clearly there will be mounting pressure on him from within his own party to become more anti-Europe. Ultimately if he doesn;t cave in there is the chance that his party will get their knives out and remove him. Either way there will be a real attempt by the Tories to win back their former voters who now have gone UKIP.
    Two effects of this would be a potential increase in the Tory vote, and also a swing to even more right-wing and extreme policies from this government this side of 2015.
    3. The LibDems have collapsed. This seems to be the only really clear fact that is beyond dispute. How will that affect Labour? My guess is that it is of great help in the North and in traditionally Labour areas where the LibDems made inroads, particulalry over the Iraq war issue.
    However there are pleny of areas with a significant number of people would never vote Labour. In these areas it was the LibDems who made inroads against the Tories. 1997 is perhaps the prime example. The collapse of the LibDems will give the Tories a much better chance in some of these South of England areas as well as the South West.
    Anyway, the bottom line is that I am still very pleased about all three of the by elections and congratulate all three Labour candidates. Yes the percentages look stonkingly good, but we can’t read a General Election into them. However we can also say that both of the coalition parties did exceptionally badly, and we can wonder just how many years it will take the LibDems to recover and indeed whether they can ever recover.

    • aracataca

      ‘However there is no room to sit back and think that we are on our way.’

      Is anybody suggesting that we should do this Jeremy?

      I always find these kinds of charts annoying as they remind me of those Fib Dem Focus charts that used to show exaggeratedly large yellow blocks and exaggeratedly small red blocks.
      The game is up for the Fibs but they might claw their way back as ‘Independents’. We should, of course, guard against complacency at all levels and announce new policies and ideas in a slow, careful and timely manner. However, notwithstanding the tirades of abuse that are going to be levelled at EM in the coming months and years the 2015 election appears (from where we are now) to be there for the taking.

    • David Brede

      Hi Jeremy, a good bit of analysis of the by election results.

      I would say that the Corby result was also a lot to do with the existence of a good local candidate who was installed long before the election occurred.

      If Labour is to withstand the onslaught from the Tories and their Ashcroft and maybe after Leveson, Murdoch cash then we need to max out on all the advantages we can get.

Latest

  • Featured Try to imagine for a moment that you are Jeremy Hunt

    Try to imagine for a moment that you are Jeremy Hunt

    It may be an uncomfortable exercise, but brace yourself and try to imagine for a moment that you are Jeremy Hunt. Now, in your new role ensconced behind a desk at the Department for Health, it’s not difficult to imagine the huge pressures that are heaped on your shoulders at the moment. The English NHS is undergoing the worst year in A&E for a decade, with almost a million people waiting over 4 hours, elderly care is in crisis as […]

    Read more →
  • News Wales Mass Exodus? Figures show number of Welsh NHS patients using English NHS is FALLING since 2010

    Mass Exodus? Figures show number of Welsh NHS patients using English NHS is FALLING since 2010

    The Tories have been trying to use the Welsh NHS as a stick with which to beat the Labour Party, so it wasn’t too surprising to see the Daily Mail parroting Tory attack lines today with this front page splash: Now if you look beyond the (largely anecdotal) stories and carefully selected numbers in Daily Mail piece and look at the complete figures (available here) – they reveal that the number of Welsh patients using the NHS in England is actually falling. Here’s how […]

    Read more →
  • Comment No child should live in danger. Now is the time to end violence against children

    No child should live in danger. Now is the time to end violence against children

    Every five minutes somewhere in the world a child dies as a result of violence. These tragic deaths are not just confined to the war zones that dominate the news. Too often they happen when children should be safe –at home, at school or in the communities where they live. Today’s new report by Unicef UK outlines how violence is now a leading cause of serious injury and death among children. In Bangladesh, more than 20 per cent of girls […]

    Read more →
  • Europe News How would an EU referendum pledge affect Labour’s support?

    How would an EU referendum pledge affect Labour’s support?

    A poll conducted for the Daily Mirror by ComRes has found that most Labour-leaning voters aren’t bothered whether or not the party pledges to have an EU referendum. The poll saw 2,000 Labour-leaning people asked how the party’s stance on an EU referendum would affect their voting intention. 13% said it would make them more likely to vote Labour, while 7% said they would be less likely to do so. Perhaps unsurprisingly, most people (67%) said that an EU referendum […]

    Read more →
  • Comment Labour’s London Primary must be as accessible as possible

    Labour’s London Primary must be as accessible as possible

    The two-party system is on the way out. If there is a political lesson from the last two months, then that is it. The SNP’s popularity in Scotland and the rising stock of UKIP south of the border tell a clear story of people fed up with politics as usual. They are sick of the tribalism, bored of the politicking, tired of trying to work out who stands for what. They want something different: to be treated honestly, listened to, […]

    Read more →
7ads6x98y