This is how badly the Lib Dems did (and the Tories weren’t much better)

November 30, 2012 10:02 am

There were four parties who stood in all three by-elections yesterday. Here’s the total number of votes received by each of those parties:

Of course all of the seats were “safe” for Labour – but this will still make fairly glum ready for Nick and Dave…

  • Jeremy_Preece

    This is the sort of statistics that make you want to jump up and down with joy. However there is no room to sit back and think that we are on our way.
    Congratuations to all three Labour candidates. But let’s also consider a few health warnings:
    1. The turnout was very low. Since this was not a by election that would change the balance of power in Westminster or change the government it was a totally different animal from a general election.
    a) It is quite likely that a large number of Tory voters stayed at home. This would probably not be the case in a General Election.
    b) We have not had a real surge of the number of people who vote Labour.
    c) There were a lot of protest votes, UKIP and Respect, but more than that the number of people who refused to vote for anyone.
    In short, this is not a huge ringing endorsement for Labour. What would have been a ringing endorsement would have been a really high turnout with the same sort of percentages that Labour got.
    2. The Tories are now at a crossroads. The Daily Mail type Tory voter now seems to rather vote for UKIP than Tory. This is not necesserily great news for Labour unless it were repeated at a General Election:
    a) Some UKIP voters might vote differently in a General Election – probably Tory, whereas a by election is a great opportunity to register a protest.
    b) Cameron is basically an opportunist rather than a man of great over-arching principles. Clearly there will be mounting pressure on him from within his own party to become more anti-Europe. Ultimately if he doesn;t cave in there is the chance that his party will get their knives out and remove him. Either way there will be a real attempt by the Tories to win back their former voters who now have gone UKIP.
    Two effects of this would be a potential increase in the Tory vote, and also a swing to even more right-wing and extreme policies from this government this side of 2015.
    3. The LibDems have collapsed. This seems to be the only really clear fact that is beyond dispute. How will that affect Labour? My guess is that it is of great help in the North and in traditionally Labour areas where the LibDems made inroads, particulalry over the Iraq war issue.
    However there are pleny of areas with a significant number of people would never vote Labour. In these areas it was the LibDems who made inroads against the Tories. 1997 is perhaps the prime example. The collapse of the LibDems will give the Tories a much better chance in some of these South of England areas as well as the South West.
    Anyway, the bottom line is that I am still very pleased about all three of the by elections and congratulate all three Labour candidates. Yes the percentages look stonkingly good, but we can’t read a General Election into them. However we can also say that both of the coalition parties did exceptionally badly, and we can wonder just how many years it will take the LibDems to recover and indeed whether they can ever recover.

    • aracataca

      ‘However there is no room to sit back and think that we are on our way.’

      Is anybody suggesting that we should do this Jeremy?

      I always find these kinds of charts annoying as they remind me of those Fib Dem Focus charts that used to show exaggeratedly large yellow blocks and exaggeratedly small red blocks.
      The game is up for the Fibs but they might claw their way back as ‘Independents’. We should, of course, guard against complacency at all levels and announce new policies and ideas in a slow, careful and timely manner. However, notwithstanding the tirades of abuse that are going to be levelled at EM in the coming months and years the 2015 election appears (from where we are now) to be there for the taking.

    • David Brede

      Hi Jeremy, a good bit of analysis of the by election results.

      I would say that the Corby result was also a lot to do with the existence of a good local candidate who was installed long before the election occurred.

      If Labour is to withstand the onslaught from the Tories and their Ashcroft and maybe after Leveson, Murdoch cash then we need to max out on all the advantages we can get.

Latest

  • Comment Scotland Join the 1,000 – building a movement for Labour’s future in Scotland

    Join the 1,000 – building a movement for Labour’s future in Scotland

    Last Tuesday I stopped by a Team Findlay phone bank in Glasgow. I was expecting to see a half dozen people making calls. There were close to 40. And that was just in Glasgow. More people were hitting the phones from Aberdeen to Ayrshire and from Dundee to Dumfries to take part in what we’re calling ‘Call 4 Change’. It’s been like this since my campaign kicked off two weeks ago. We launched ‘Neil 4 Scotland’ in the Miners’ Welfare in […]

    Read more →
  • Comment We must continue our support for Nigeria’s government in their efforts to bring the kidnapped schoolgirls home

    We must continue our support for Nigeria’s government in their efforts to bring the kidnapped schoolgirls home

    On 14th April, more than 200 schoolgirls were abducted in Chibok, in north-eastern Nigeria, by the Islamist terrorist group Boko Haram, prompting a widespread international outcry. Seven months later, many of these girls have still not been able to return to their homes and families. The hell they are still enduring can hardly be imagined. Here in the UK, there is cross-party support for Britain to continue to provide support – alongside our allies – to the Nigerian authorities in […]

    Read more →
  • News Labour MP calls on Tories to give up Whelan’s £1.5m donation after “antisemitic and racist” comments

    Labour MP calls on Tories to give up Whelan’s £1.5m donation after “antisemitic and racist” comments

    Karl Turner MP has written a letter to David Cameron, asking him to give up the £1.5 million donated to the Tories by Dave Whelan, the owner of Wigan Athletic football club after he made “antisemitic and racist comments”. This comes after Whelan said “Jewish people chase money more than everybody else” and that there is ‘nothing’ wrong with calling a person from China a “chink”, defending the use of this racist term by claiming, “If any Englishman said he has […]

    Read more →
  • Comment 5 education pledges I want to see from the Labour Party

    5 education pledges I want to see from the Labour Party

    Up to now, Miliband has toyed at the edges of education, with no real commitment to how it will be funded or delivered. With Osborne’s budget (not to mention the election) fast approaching, Labour must commit. And to secure the votes of students it must commit to a series of offers for Further and Higher education that inspire and transform the sector. Here’s the five I most want to hear: 1. Investment in part-time learning The number of part time […]

    Read more →
  • Featured Jowell confirms she will seek Labour nomination for London Mayor

    Jowell confirms she will seek Labour nomination for London Mayor

    Dame Tessa Jowell, widely seen as a Labour frontrunner for London Mayor, has confirmed she will seek the party nomination to run in 2016. Speaking to a Labour fundraiser in Ealing, west London tonight, Jowell said that when the selection race starts in May next year she will give it her “best shot” – but won’t make any formal announcement until then. According to people at the fundraiser, the Dulwich and West Norwood MP told party members: “I keep being […]

    Read more →