Labour and Tories tied in new poll

A Populus poll released today shows the Conservatives are now neck and neck with Labour – with both parties on 35%.

While all the usual disclaimers should be made here (it’s a single poll and there is always a margin of error, etc.), it does seem to correlate with the trend of the polls narrowing. Over the past six months or so Labour’s average lead has dropped by a couple of points, and this has been a little more pronounced since Osborne’s Budget and the reports of wages catching up with inflation. It’s also been the case that Populus tends to show narrower Labour leads, due to the difference in weighting systems between the polling companies.

We should remember as well that the Tories have not had a poll lead since March 2012 and that Labour’s share of the vote is still consistently at or above 35%. So, while this should be no cause for panic, it is worth being aware of the larger trend at play here, and being prepared for some more very close polls – perhaps even the odd Tory lead.

Meanwhile, for those of you who prefer the good news: YouGov has Labour with a lead of six.