European and Local elections Liveblog 2014

May 22, 2014 7:00 am

We want to hear from you, and hear how things are going in your area – email us at elections@labourlist.org – and the pick of the submissions will be added to the liveblog.

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03.10: At long last this liveblog is coming to an end. It’s a disappointing night for Labour. Winning 4 MEPs in London was a positive ending, but like with the local elections that risks massaging the figures to make the result look better for us than it really was. Final score (with one Scottish council to declare):

UKIP – 27.5%
Labour – 25.4%
Con – 24.0%
Green – 7.9%
Lib Dem – 6.9%

Finishing only just ahead of the Tories – and in second place – isn’t good enough with a year to go until election day.

The Tories have come third for the first time in their history – but they will be able to live with being just a point behind Labour. And Scotland might alter the totals slightly when they announce officially in the morning, but results were still disappointing there and won’t shift things too much.

In the coming days – starting later this morning – the party will have to hold an inquest into what has happened, and some of that will happen on LabourList. But for now, it’s time for bed. Goodnight everyone, and thanks for staying with us.MF and CP

03.07: Final London results:

Lab – 806,959
Con – 495,639
UKIP – 371,133
Green – 196,419

Voteshare nationwide now looks like this:

UKIP 27.50%

Labour 25.40%

Tories 23.94%

Only thing left to come in now is Scotland. I’m clocking off. – CP

02.59: What we’re hearing from London, in terms of MEPs, is: 4 Labour, 2 Tories, 1 UKIP, 1 Green – CP

02.54: Nick Robinson on the BBC has just said Labour believe to have 50% of the vote in London, and 4 London MEPs. – CP

02.51: Bromley South in Tower Hamlets will now not be counted until Tuesday. If, if, the result for that is announced on Tuesday, it will only have taken five days to count. – CP

02.47: Just been told the election agents have been called in to be told the results at City Hall in London now. So, unless the agents have a problem with the results, we should know what the London results are… soon? – CP

02.16: Bromley South ward in Tower Hamlets is about to start its third recount for the council. Here all night, guys. – CP

01.42: The Guardian are reporting that Labour look set to finish just 1.2% ahead of the Tories in second place. Third would have been disastrous, but only creeping ahead of the Tories isn’t good enough, frankly. Not good enough – MF

01.24: Getting bored? Well, we’ve got some Labour Party infighting for you! Looks like friends of Michael Dugher are blaming Douglas Alexander and friends of Douglas Alexander are blaming Michael Dugher in tomorrow’s Times (£). It’s not altogether clear what people think actually was bad about the campaign, so currently this just seems to be about personality clashes… – CP

01.16: We’re still waiting for Tower Hamlets to finish counting. There’s nothing to be done. – CP

01.04: National voteshare so far: UKIP 29.12%, Tories 24.11%, Labour 23.65%.

With only Scotland and London left to declare, I would say we are certainly going to finish above the Tories (unless something unforeseeably terrible has happened). Given UKIP’s poor standing in London and Scotland, we should catch up on them a bit too, but that six-point gap is insurmountable by this point. Second place. Is it good enough? – CP

00.54: Not going to get Scotland tonight, because of observing rest on Sundays in the Western Isles, but BBC now saying SNP might win there, not Labour. UKIP still expected to get an MEP there.

We told you that London result should be around 1am, delayed because of the count in Tower Hamlets taking so long. I have absolutely no idea when Tower Hamlets will finish counting. If anyone does, please, please tweet me @Conorpope or email us at elections@labourlist.org – CP

00.37: So far, Lib Dems have got one MEP. Not sure if they will get any more, which would mean a net loss of eleven. – CP

00.33: West Midlands results. Number of MEPs. – CP

3 UKIP, 2 Labour, 2 Tory

00.31: South East results not great for Labour. UKIP killing it there. This is the MEPs totals there. – CP

4 UKIP, 3 Tories, 1 Labour, 1 Green, 1 Lib Dem 

00.28: That North West result pushes Labour into second nationally. – CP

00.22: Results in from the North West. BNP’s Nick Griffin officially gone. Cheers North West! – CP

CON: 351,985 (2 seats)

GREEN: 123,075

LAB: 594,063 (3 seats)

LD: 105,487

UKIP: 481,932 (3 seats)

00.17: This is North East Lincolnshire results, part of Yorkshire and Humber (I think, I’m from Lancashire). Includes Grimsby – one seaside constituency I speculated Farage might be looking at, especially now longstanding Eurosceptic Labour MP Austin Mitchell is stepping down. – CP

Labour 22.8%
UKIP 41%
Con 21%
Lib Dem 4.5%

00.14: Labour have topped the poll in Reading, which has a couple of swing seats that will be important in 2015. – CP

00.10: If the Lib Dems are left with any MEPs tonight, talk is that it will be one in the South East. Tough claim to be “the party on In” when you’re not going to be there. – CP

00.06: North West result expected in the next few minutes, according to Manchester MP Lucy Powell. – CP

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00.03: Croydon saw a decent Labour win. Up in North London, Islington delivers a tremendous one. Labour 18,000 votes ahead of second place Greens there. – CP

00.00: UKIP a fair way ahead in Hull. Lib Dems and Tories both doing terribly. – CP

UKIP 35.77%
Labour 31.81%
Lib Dems 11.84%
Tory 8.24%

23.57: Labour currently 1.3% behind Tories and in third place. But I’d expect we will do much, much better than them in places like London and the North West, which are still to declare. UKIP currently way ahead, just over 30%. – CP

23.51: We’re not expecting the result from London until 1am, because Tower Hamlets is still, still, counting. – CP

23.46: Tories slip from 1st to 3rd in Wales. Labour top in Wales – but only just – over UKIP. – MF

23.44: Going out on a bit of a limb here, but with London still to come, I’d guess UKIP will win by 2/3 points, with Labour 2/3 points ahead of the Tories. Something like UKIP 29%, Lab 26%, Tories 24% – MF

23.42: Wales seats: Tories 1, Labour 1, Plaid Cymru 1, UKIP 1. No change there. – CP

23.40: The Lib Dem line for tonight appears to be “We predicted we’d do badly. We have!” – CP

23.38: South West Result (MEP): UKIP – 32.3% (2) CON – 28.9% (2) LAB – 13.7% (1) GRN – 11.1% (1) LDEM – 10.7% 

Clare Moody elected for Labour there. – CP

23.35: Yorkshire and Humber results in: UKIP 3 seats, Labour 2, Tories 1. – CP

23.28: Lib Dems come fifth in Sheffield, with Labour first, as predicted.

Lib Dems have come THIRD in Nick Clegg’s seat of Sheffield Hallam, behind Labour and UKIP. That European strategy went well for them then. – CP

23.23: Farage asked which seaside constituency he plans to stand in next year (a reader writes in to suggest Bootle, by the way). He says “I haven’t decided yet!”

Which means he has literally only decided that he wants to be an MP by the sea. Farage also says he expects Labour to promise an EU referendum. – CP

23.21: So that returns us one MEP in the East Midlands, Glenis Wilmott. I think we would have hoped to do a little better there. – CP

23.18: Labour third in East Midlands. – CP

UKIP 368,734

Tory 291,270

Labour 279,363

23.10: Waiting on formal declaration in Sheffield, but looks like Labour have won and the Lib Dems have come in fourth, maybe fifth. Local Lib Dems are looking understandably glum, and there is speculation that they have not topped the popular vote in Nick Clegg’s Sheffield Hallam constituency. – CP

23.09: This is the result in Oxford. UKIP in fifth. Labour top. – CP

LAB 13015
GREEN 8337
CON 5997
LIB 5332,
UKIP 4979

23.06: Farage has arrived at the count in Southampton, saying he’d like to stand for Parliament in 2015 in a constituency “by the sea”. Thanet? Great Yarmouth? Great Grimsby? – CP

23.04: UKIP have beaten Labour in Southampton – which currently has two Labour MPs – MF

22.56: Labour look likely to win in Scotland over the SNP. That’s a big deal – UKIP would also gain an MEP. – MF

22.51: UKIP didn’t make many inroads in Doncaster on Thursday in the local elections, but we hear that they’ve topped the vote there in the European elections. That’s Doncaster, home of Ed Miliband, as well as Rosie Winterton and Caroline Flint… Labour vote up 12%, but still pipped by UKIp by 1% – MF

22.51: That carnival went well then. European election votes Croydon:
Lab 32,439 (32.9%)
Con 26,687 (27.1%)
UKIP 19,560 (19.8%)
Green 6,829 (6.9%)
LD 3,768 (3.8%) – CP

22.47: Ed Davey is up on the BBC – now is a good time to note that Labour got two seats in Norbiton in Kingston today with a 12.5% swing to return to the council (and only missed out on a third seat by 3 votes…) – MF

22.46: To be clear, I think we’ll finish 2nd. 3rd isn’t worth thinking about – MF

22.44: Harriet Harmsn is on BBC and says that she “hopes” Labour will finish above the Tories and improve our vote share from 2009. We absolutely have to do both to stave off an absolutely disastrous night. Even second would be a poor result. – MF

22.43: That Bimingham result seems to show that UKIP’s success elsewhere is still not being replicated in the cities, because they are failing to take as many Labour votes as they are in other places. – CP

22.39: Lib Dems come third in Eastleigh being UKIP and the Tories. Ouch. – MF

22.35: So the Tory leader in the European Parliament has lost his seat. Remember this from Callanan?

Tory MEP Martin Callanan, the leader of the Conservatives in the European Parliament, went further by saying that cutting the 50p tax rate was “one of the biggest mistakes that we’ve made so far in this parliament” and that “politically it was disastrous to do so in a recession”.

22.33: Birmingham result is in:

Labour – 93,740
UKIP – 52,063
Con – 39,329
Lib Dem – 19853

22.32: In Wales Labour are on 30%, but UKIP are just behind on 27%. IN WALES. – MF

22.26: Labour  come third in Eastern region behind UKIP and the Tories.
UKIP: 542,812
Con 446,569
Lab: 271,601
Green 133,331
LD: 108,010

That’s only 17% of the vote for Labour in Eastern region, but that is up 7%. – MF

22.20: Of course Labour taking that Tory seat in the North East means Martin Callanan – the Tory leader in the EU Parliament – has lost his seat. – MF

22.15: Labour take one seat from the Tories in the North East – up 11% of the vote, with UKIP in second. - MF

22.13: Labour top UKIP in the North East. I shouldn’t be excited to hear that, but after rumours earlier today I am. Worryingly large number of UKIP votes though. Lab 221k, UKIP 177k, Tories 107k, Libs 36k – MF

22.09: The North West European Parliament Election in 2009 was the first time I voted, so you can understand how upset I was when the BNP’s Nick Griffin was elected. We’re hearing rumours that he won’t even attend the count tonight – and it looks like he’s busy working out how to take the “MEP” out of his Twitter handle… – CP

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22.08: Labour on over 50% of vote in Leicester. We hope that’s a big boost for deputy mayor Rory Palmer who is no 2 on east mids list – MF

22.06: The Tower Hamlets delay is going to delay the European election announcement for the whole of London. Thanks Tower Hamlets. - MF

22.05: When we stopped this liveblog at quarter past eleven on Friday night, Tower Hamlets was the only council still counting. Tower Hamlets is still counting. We are very glad we decided not to wait up. – CP

22.01: The Front National – led by Le Pen – have won in France. Syriza have won in Greece. – MF

21.50: People have been tweeting rumours all evening of a Lord Ashcroft exit poll (showing Labour in third) and one from the German paper Die Welt (showing Labour second, four points behind UKIP). There are no exit polls for tonight. Die Welt’s appear to be an amalgamation of polls, while the Lord Ashcroft one simply doesn’t exist. Hold tight for now. – CP

21.47: Speaking to a Labour source, I’m told that Labour are expecting UKIP to win – as they did before election day. However, they argue that they’ve done better than expected. That probably means coming ahead of the 25% of the vote bar the party had set itself in advance. However coming second may exceed the expectations of the party – but it won’t satisfy those (including me) who think Labour need to be winning this a year before election day. – MF

21.38: So for arcane reasons we’re not meant to report on what’s happening at counts around the country until 10pm (even though most of them have been all but completed by now) – but what we can do is say how LabourList readers thought the party would do ahead of election day. In our weekly poll we asked how Labour would do in these elections. It doesn’t suggest a great deal of confidence amongst party activists – 56% of LabourList readers think Labour will come second in these elections, compared to just 37% of whom think we’ll come first. We’re not far from find out the truth. – MF

21.35: So will Labour win tonight? Firstly lets ask what we mean by win – does that mean voteshare or MEPs? If Labour can’t win by either metric that’s problematic to say the least – it’s 30 years (1984) since an opposition party failed to win the European elections. Kinnock won in 1989. We won in 1994 when the party didn’t have a permanent leader. And William Hague won in 1999 when the Tory Party were at their lowest ebb.

However, if Labour finish 2nd, the Tories will likely finish 3rd – the Tories have never finished third in a national election in their history. Ever. That duck could be broken tonight. – MF

Sunday 21.30: Evening all – we’re back to take you through the results from the European elections. It’s one of the peculiarities of the European elections that many of the votes will already have been counted, and in many areas parties will already have a fair idea of the result from Thursday, but nothing official can be announced until all polls have closed across Europe at 10pm. From 10pm onwards we’re expecting a fairly brisk announcement of the results from the regions. We may not be up all night this time, but we’re expecting an eventful night nonetheless… – MF

23.12: On Thursday at 7am we kicked off our election day liveblog.

Since then we’ve brought you nearly 300 updates. We broke the news of several election night results from around the country (including telling you Labour could win Hammersmith and Fulham 13 hours before anyone else). We’ve brought you analysis from across the party. We’ve tried to explain what this all means for the general election.

And we’ve consumed Red Bull at a rate that may exceed the recommended daily allowance.

It’s been a long 40 hours for us – and a long 40 half hours for the Labour Party and so many of you too. Thank you for staying with us – or dropping in when you could. If you want to catch up with the liveblog, you can read it in its entirety here.

We’ll be bringing you more reaction and analysis in the coming days – and we’ll be back on Sunday night for our next liveblog, the European Election results from around the country. It’ll be shorter but no less eventful. If you’d like to support the work we do – and help keep us in Red Bull – you can do so here.

And last but very much not least, thanks to Conor who has been an absolute liveblogging revelation – and has done some of the most “fun” shifts like “daytime” and “oh dear is it getting light outside”. We’re going to head off to our respective homes now and go to sleep. We’d suggest you do too – it’s been a busy week.

AND SEE YOU ON SUNDAY NIGHT – MF

23.05: Barnet is done, several years after this liveblog began. 1 Lib Dem and 2 Tories in Childs Hill. The Tories take Barnet with 32 seats. 1 Lib Dem. 27 Labour with one ward voting next month. 

We’re only waiting for Tower Hamlets now, but with rumours of a recount and Lutfur almost certainly winning I think we’re done for tonight. – CP

22.43: Labour are the largest party in Milton Keynes now – with 25 seats. It’s our best result there since 1996, and as we said earlier, will put us in good stead for that marginal in Milton Keynes South. - CP

22.32: Jules Pipe has been re-elected as Hackney Mayor with over 60% of the vote. Labour in London, nailing it again. – CP

22.24: Labour added thirteen to their total in Ealing. That’s 53 Labour councillors there now. – CP

22.03: Right, Tower Hamlets is actually still not confirmed. Lutfur still favourite to win at this point, but now hearing rumours of terrible behaviour from Lutfur supporters. Upsetting stuff. – CP

21.49: More amazing London news – Labour up three in Greenwich: 43 to the Conservatives’ 8. – CP

21.35: Labour looking to gain thirteen seats on Ealing Council. Just unbelievable. How has this landslide not reached outside London? – CP

21.32: Lutfur Rahman re-elected in Tower Hamlets and everything that is wrong with the world will continue to be wrong. – CP

21.30: Full recount in Childs Hill – a ward Labour need to win to take Barnet council. – CP

21.21: We’ve delivered a couple of lists tonight of target seats where Labour have won the popular vote (see 18.51 and 17.23). A precocious reader points out that Enfield Southgate is not on Labour’s 106-seat long target list, and yet we have won the popular vote there: “30,749 votes over the Tories 30,085.”

The Tories have a majority of 7,626 in Enfield Southgate, while the Lib Dems polled just over 6,000 last time. – CP

21.15: Brian Coleman – former London Assembly member and bogeyman of North London – has lost his seat as a councillor. Coleman, who lost his Assembly seat to Labour’s Andrew Dismore in 2012 after a campaign by local residents and shops against him, was deselected as a Tory after a conviction for assault. He stood as an independent, but now he’s gone. Farewell Brian. We shan’t miss you. Don’t let the door hit you on the etc etc – MF

20.52: Tower Hamlets, I’m told, is still too soon to write off, but “it’s not pretty”.

I spoke to some unhappy members there earlier. One told me “Getting activists (and even candidates) out on the doorstep yesterday was like pulling teeth. They just wanted to hang around polling stations. Which, I don’t need to tell you, does sweet f**k all to increase turnout or even convince people to vote Labour.”

I was also told that during GOTV, much of the data used was just wrong: “Lots and lots of supposed Labour promises (as recently as a few weeks ago according to the sheets) said they voted for Lutfur when I knocked them.”

When I was being told that Labour were confident of winning yesterday, was it based on the number of these doors being knocked on? To have people knocking on doors that aren’t Labour on election day is shoddy – and lands Tower Hamlets with another four years with of a very dodgy mayor. – CP

20.38: Almost thirty eight hours into this liveblog, this would really sting. Joshua Peck is leader of the Labour group in Tower Hamlets. – CP

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20.33: So far in Camden, Labour have 33, Tories 12. No Lib Dems so far. – CP

20.29: Labour have taken all three seats off the Tories in East Barnet. Things are looking good there, then. – CP

20.25: Ealing results coming in now. Labour already have the council, with a whopping 40 councillors, but they could make more than ten gains here. Local A&E closures have made people annoyed at the Tories there. – CP

20.20: Sounds like the headway being made in Ealing is largely down to Lib Dem collapse (who saw that coming??) but also taking a fair few votes off the Tories where gains are being made too. – CP

20.13: Great stuff coming in from Ealing. Labour running close in wards they never considered putting effort in, and have won two in Cleveland ward – local party thought “we were never in the race” in that one. – CP

20.01: Blimey. Looks like Duwayne Brooks, Lib Dems candidate for Lewisham Mayor, has just quite the party. – CP

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19.49: Massive win for Labour’s mayor in Lewisham, Steve Bullock! He’s never won on first preferences before. – CP

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19.46: About to declare Lewisham’s mayor: feeling comfortable for Labour. – CP

19.40: Labour got more votes in Simon Hughes’ constituency than the Lib Dems. Ian writes in to say:

Surprisingly, taking the top vote in each ward, the Lib Dems got 10,710 in Bermondsey and Old Southwark whereas Labour got 12,486. I didn’t seriously think Simon Hughes would be in trouble next year but he may well be given a higher turnout in 2015 and the fact that Labour now has 16 councillors on the ground in the constituency compared to 11 for the Lib Dems.”

19.26: Labour’s London dream continues, gaining four so far in Kensington & Chelsea. – CP

19.23: There are no lambs left to send to the slaughter, report Sky News. – CP

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19.21: Lib Dems wiped out in Bromley. They were in a joint administration sixteen years ago. – CP

19.10: Labour have reportedly won five seats in leafy suburban Bromley and have secured the popular vote in Nuneaton – that’s yet another important target seat in 2015. – CP

18.58: Has a UKIP councillor resigned less than an hour after being elected?

To Hyndburn, and a story that needs a little background. Malcolm Pritchard, a former Labour Mayor, was standing against his own daughter, Labour candidate and deputy council leader Clare, for UKIP in the Accrington ward of Milnshaw.

This week, he reported her to the authorities for electoral fraud. On Wednesday she was suspended from the Labour Party.

Today, it was announced he had defeated Clare. Since then, local MP Graham Jones has reported that he has publicly resigned from the party, 50 minutes after being elected, and will sit as an independent councillor. A journo from the local paper is reporting that this is not the case.

Could this story be any weirder? – CP

18.55: Ealing, we’ve had our differences, you and I (see: seventeen minutes ago), but it sound like you’ll be electing Labour councillors in the unlikeliest of places, so maybe we can still be friends. – CP

18.54: Labour have gained five seats so far in leafy suburban Bromley. – CP

18.51: 29 target seat where Labour has won the popular vote. – CP

29 target seats where Labour have won so far 2014-05-23 18-49-15

18.47: Southwark finishes with Labour 48, Lib Dems 13, Tories 2. Will be interesting to see where those Lib Dem seats lie, and how it might affect the Neil Coyle v Simon Hughes battle next May. – CP

18.38: We aren’t expecting results from Ealing until at least 10pm. Why? Why? This is crazy. Sort it out, Ealing. Not on. I can’t even look at you. – CP

18.35: Labour have 59 of 63 seats in Lambeth, Lib Dems wiped out. Did we report this earlier? I can’t remember. – CP

18.20: Two lots of mayoral news!

TOWER HAMLETS – Turnout is 47.5% and as we have said again and again,a bigger turnout is better for Labour.

LEWISHAM – Count has been going on for an hour and a half, where Labour’s Steve Bullock is looking for re-election. Looking good so far, Lib Dems suffering as they are across London. – CP

18.16: Another reason why some counts are taking SO LONG. – CP

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18.08: The Tories are tearing chunks out of each other. – CP

18.06: There’s a lot of bored people in East London. – CP

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18.04: Woking has got a Labour councillor we’re hearing. – CP

17.59: Milton Keynes about to declare. Important for key marginal in Milton Keynes South. That’s currently held by Iain Stewart, a Tory, with a 5,201 majority. – CP

17.54: Nice little interview with John Biggs, Labour’s candidate for Tower Hamlets mayor, from East London Lines. He seems relaxed, says the campaign across London has been good, and is expecting a result by 7pm. – CP

17.49: Tower Hamlets mayoral race going to second preferences, as expected. This is a big improvement for Labour on last time, when Lutfur won on the first round. Come on Biggsy! – CP

17.45: We’re still waiting for loads of results across London. I’m told this is because of the extraordinarily long European ballots being difficult to unfold, and making the verification process take a very long time. – CP

17.42: Quickly denied

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17.39: LabourList does not condone this sort of behaviour – CP

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17.33: To Scotland, where there have been a few by-elections: “2 Labour holds in Fife (over 60% of vote) but significantly we gained Oban South and the Isles on Argyll & Bute council. First Labour seat there (and elected under STV)” – CP

17.31: Kelvin McKenzie narrowly misses out on election to Elmbridge Borough Council. Boo hoo. – CP

17.23: Here’s a list of 20 key marginals where Labour have topped the poll: – CP

WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTH WEST

CARLISLE

WEAVER VALE

LINCOLN

DEWSBURY

WARRINGTON SOUTH

ENFIELD NORTH

HASTINGS & RYE

BURNLEY

IPSWICH

HALESOWEN & ROWLEY REGIS

CROYDON CENTRAL

CANNOCK CHASE

SOUTH SWINDON

DUDLEY SOUTH

COLNE VALLEY

PETERBOROUGH

HARLOW

HORNSEY & WOOD GREEN

CAMBRIDGE

17.21: Labour become largest party on the Local Government Association (LGA) since 2003. – CP

17.19: UKIP vote very strong across Barking & Dagenham, although Labour still on course for 51-0 win. – CP

17.13: Labour have got their first seat on Wokingham Council in more than ten years. Of course, they’ve celebrated with a selfie. Well done! – CP

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17.05: It’s a shame about Tories holding on in Trafford; it’s one we would have hoped to gain. We add one seat to our tally there. – CP

16.59: I’m getting lazy now: I can’t be bothered to even type out facts I’m reading on Twitter. Liveblog fatigue. – CP

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16.54: Hounslow now: “Good news still pouring in from Hounslow, we’re hopeful of ending the day with 49 of the 60 councillors, which would be a net gain of 14. Omens very good for Ruth Cadbury, in Brentford & Isleworth.” Brentford & Isleworth constituency is currently held by the Tories, with a majority of 1,958. – CP

16.52: Someone just sent in this lovely fact about Manchester: “Manchester is now the biggest Labour group in the country, having overtaken County Durham who have 94 Labour councillors, although an upcoming by election could see Co Durham pull level again if they take a seat from the Indys.” – CP

16.48: Labour have beaten the leader of the Lib Dem group in Sheffield Hallam. QUICK, SOMEONE TELL NICK CLEGG THERE’S A TANK ON HIS LAWN. – CP

16.45: Barking & Dagenham looking alright then. – CP

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16.40: Labour gain three in Weymouth & Portland to become the largest party there once again. “Very good results” I’m told. UKIP gain one off Lib Dems. - CP

16.31: In Hyndburn, Labour make two gains and lose two – one to UKIP and one to the Tories. UKIP vote strong across the borough, but an easy Labour hold on the council overall. – CP

16.28: Stroud is Labour’s number one target seat in the South West in 2015 and the only Labour council between Exeter and Birmingham. Three gains there today, no Lib Dems now, and no UKIP councillors. – CP

16.23: CORRECTION: Labour put West Lancs into No Overall Control. It is top of the Tory list of marginals. – CP

16.18: Labour take Harrow. Labour take West Lancashire from Tories – that’s a really good result.CP

16.16: Southwark is looking so bad for the Lib Dems that I could see Simon Hughes retiring rather than fighting it again. In his constituency of Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Labour have three councillors in the Chaucer ward for the first time since 1982. – CP

16.10: Pretty much confirmed now: Manchester is totally Labour, Lib Dems crumble into nothing.

Talking of Lib Dems crumbling into nothing, let’s look at Southwark, where Simon Hughes will be mopping his brow. Labour have just won a seat off the Lib Dems in East Dulwich with “a paper candidate”, my source tells me. – CP

15.59: Woah. 96-seat Manchester City Council could become a one-party local government: Labour could have it all. – CP

15.56: Labour have taken control of Bradford council. Hopefully they’ll be kicking on to get rid of Gorgeous George Galloway next year. – CP

15.55: Just head national turnout about 31%. Can anyone confirm/deny/tell me it’s too early to know? – CP

15.47: BBC projected share of vote: 31% Lab, 29% Con, 17% UKIP, 13% LDs. That’s UKIP down 6 points on last year’s council elections. However, there were more rural and Tory councils up last year (I think?). So while the UKIP vote is down, it is way way up for urban and Labour areas. – CP

15.45: Newham stays Labour. Robin Wales re-elected mayor. – CP

15.43: Things going well in Labour-controlled Oxford. Three gains, no losses. Smiles all aroound there. – CP

15.35: Labour have 48 seats on Blackburn with Darwen council – the joint highest it has ever been. In Hyndburn, UKIP have gained two, one from Labour. Will try and get more on that but Labour will be fine. – CP

15.29: Labour came within 1,000 votes of getting a councillor in Knightsbridge & Belgravia. A good base to work from – appealing to the aspirations of the ultra-rich. – CP

15.21: Got plenty of silly stories from Tower Hamlets, but Tower Hamlets is as Tower Hamlets does.

However, John Biggs is doing very very well on second preferences, and he should be mayor. We might lose a couple of councillors. – CP

15.17: Islington, Brent and Lambeth were all Lib Dem councils in 2006. Q: How many Lib Dem councillors are going to be in Islington, Brent and Lambeth by the end of today? A: One. – CP

15.06: Could be 18 out of 18 for Labour in Dagenham. - CP

15.00: Here’s the number in Great Yarmouth:

Make up of GYBC’s 39 seats is now Labour 20, Con 19, UKIP 10

Lab lose 5

Con lose 5

“Bollocks”, says my source. Hmm. – CP

14.57: Verification took so long in Kensington and Chelsea because “the Euro ballots are so difficult to unfold”. – CP

14.55: Verification took a wonderful five hours in the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea, where they’re now counting. Labour hoping to make gains. – CP

14.52: Great Yarmouth done. UKIP gain 10 and council goes into No Overall Control. I presume that means they took those last four seats that were up for grabs. – CP

14.39: Back to Great Yarmouth, where UKIP have gained 6, 2 off Labour. 4 wards left to go, 3 of them are Labour. – CP

14.34: Mixed messages in Tower Hamlets now. Less optimistic than yesterday. Biggs could still win, but Labour lose some council seats. – CP

14.30: We’ll be getting the turnout for Tower Hamlets soon. Remember, Labour are confident that the higher it is, the better we’ll do. Last time it was a measly 25%. – CP

14.25: More word that Harrow is going red. We look on course for a majority, with ‘Independent Labour’ vying with the Lib Dems “for crumbs” I’m told. At least a majority of three, could get higher. – CP

14.23: Labour take Crawley from the Conservatives – it is now 24 seats to 8. Another general election target there. – CP

14.20: News from the count in Great Yarmouth:

“UKIP from Con 4

UKIP from Lab 1

Con hold 1

Lab hold 1″

14.15: Sky News’ latest projection for 2015 has Labour four short of a majority in the Commons. Thats up to 322 from 308 last night. – CP

14.14: Great Yarmouth now taking a turn for the worse for Labour. Waiting proper confirmation, but very bad indeed by the sounds of things. – CP

14.08: In Great Yarmouth, where UKIP have been tipped to do well for a long time now, UKIP have taken a couple from the Tories.

Harrow is looking pretty good for Labour, says one source. – CP

13.44: Labour hold Burnley, taking three more seats off the Lib Dems. We’ll be expecting to win that back that seat, which went unexpectedly Lib Dem in 2010, next year.

Neighbouring Hyndburn reportedly have a big turnout – that will be an interesting one for the Tories, who have had problems with a grumpy local association there in recent years, as UKIP stand more candidates than before. An early rumour that turnout in Blackburn with Darwen was 48% now looks false, but could still be large as well. – CP

13.39: Lib Dems’ London collapse not quite replicated nationwide: just heard they’ve held every seat they had in Gateshead with increased majorities. – CP

13.33: John Mann has been on the World At One to blast the “metropolitan elite running the Labour Party”. – CP

13.12: Could Labour win every single seat in Islington? That’d be athe full 48 out of 48 and those rumours are circulating already. That’s a council the Lib Dems were running until 2010, so in four years they’d have gone from 23 seats to zero. That’s a position Labour never even managed in the 1980s. As the organiser there in 2010, I can tell you that’d be a massive acheivement, but since the Lib Dems were collapsing before they went into coalition (we won 35 seats in 2010) that’s entirely possible.

12.51: The Lib Dem collapse in London continues. They could have no councillors in Lambeth by the end of the day – they ran the council until 2006.- MF

12.49: Crawley Tory leader seems to have thrown in the towel…that’s a key Southern marginal Labour will want to draw attention to.- MF

12.29: Jackie Doyle-Price, Tory MP for Thurrock has attacked David Cameron, saying “I don’t think actually David Cameron has ever had Essex man.”- MF

12.25: Clegg’s Chief of Staff Matt Hanney has been “smashed” by Labour in the elections in Vauxhall, apparently. – MF

12.04: GAIN. Labour have gained Amber Valley council off the Tories for the first time in fourteen years. Labour 23 seats, Tories 21. – CP

11.55: I wouldn’t trust anyone who downplays UKIP’s performance so far. It has had a huge affect on Labour’s vote and we should be extremely worried.

I spoke to someone in a safe Labour area where we held the council late last night who said they were very concerned, despite UKIP not picking up seats there. They said that the result ending up masking the threat – Labour lost seats to the Tories because UKIP took votes off us, and we came within a hair’s breadth of losing pretty much all of them. – CP

11.46: Things all quiet at the moment, while we wait for the rest of the councils to count. In the meantime, why not watch Mark Ferguson’s take on the results so far? – CP

10.41: Last night’s results so far, courtesy of Ampp3d… - CP

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10.33: After a farcical near 12-hour count in Kingston, there is still no definitive result in the Labour target ward Norbiton, which will require a full recount on Sunday. We are confident that we’ll win two seats, defeating the sitting Lib Dem Mayor and a council cabinet member , but the final vote came down to a one vote margin either way. – MF

10.23: Anthony Painter surprises us. He says Labour has a “London problem”:

“This morning, I woke up to a Twitter timeline that sounded like it might be 1997 again. Hammersmith and Fulham, Merton, Redbridge, a trouncing for the Lib Dems in Hrringey, a red wave was washing across the capital. These are tremendous results and everyone who has worked so hard deserves enormous congratulations. 

Unfortunately, the national picture that it emerging seems to be very different. Labour’s problem is that it is doing well in big urban seats but less well elsewhere. 

But what about Birmingham? The pattern is similar. Where there is a large young, liberal and/or BME vote, Labour seems to be performing reasonably well. As soon as we get into suburban or white working class areas, Labour begins to struggle. It’s not a uniform picture. Of course, good organisation or strong candidates can mitigate or even reverse national trends (so don’t worry about quoting exceptional cases). But the early trend seems to be becoming clear- Labour strongest in ‘big urbania’ but weakest in ‘suburbia’ and outside. If you want to understand the difference between the two, look at Cambridge versus Thurrock. 

If this early picture is confirmed, it leaves Labour with a huge strategic problem. Suburbia is not convinced that Labour is economically competent. And the cost of living crisis campaign (and the rent capping policy was again more focused on this London vote than anywhere else) is simply not cutting through to those working class voters who are as exercised by cultural as economic anxiety and do not trust the political classes. They won’t vote Tory but they might vote UKIP or not at all. 

It’s an exceedingly complex picture. The politics of fragmented pluralism is upon us. So it’s easy for commentators to point out these strategic challenges but much more difficult to coherently respond to them. It’s not much better for the Tories (though they are seen as more economically competent). And who’d be a Lib Dem? 

Unfortunately, it would appear that Labour’s strength – the London type vote- is also its weakness. Labour may have a London problem. And it’s going to be very difficult for it to win a majority – if not impossible – if this remains.”

10.00: As promised, it’s 10 o’clock and we’re back up and running after a tremendous three and a half hour sleep.

Labour’s excellent London performance is being replicated in Brent, where counting is well underway and we’re looking at a “massive landslide/Lib Dem wipeout”.

If you’re at a count today, please send updates and impressions of how things are turning out to the email address above, or tweet me @Conorpope – after about midday we’re expecting results to come in thick and fast and your help is absolutely vital if we are to keep on top of it all. – CP

09.41: Labour have just beaten the Lib Dem leader in Brent. That’s three Lib Dem group leaders beaten in London now. Looks likely Lib Dems wiped out in Brent. – CP

08.55: Labour have won Redbridge and Croydon. That’s now confirmed. More good news – but more of it in London.

08.00: Morning all. The liveblog won’t start again properly until 10am, but we’re hearing that Labour is on course for a majority in Redbridge, and things are looking good for Labour in Ilford North for 2015. We’re also looking good in Croydon too, and in the Tower Hamlets Mayoral race.

Along with picking up Merton, and the remarkable result in Hammersmith and Fulham – seriously, I can barely believe that result  – that’s a high point for Labour so far on an otherwise difficult night. However, great results in London shouldn’t mask that Labour hasn’t done as well as we’d have hoped outside London. So far, although there have been good gains in places like Bristol and Lincoln, the only council outside of London that appears to have swung decisively to Labour outside London is Cambridge.

However, with Labour now around the 100 mark on councillor gains, the 150 barrier the party set for itself should be surpassed (which seemed uncertain earlier this morning) albeit with a large number of gains in London – MF

05.44: Just when I thought I was out… Labour gain Cambridge council. Now bed. – CP

05.38: Right, Mark sloped off an hour ago and now I’m retiring too. He’ll be on BBC News at 10:30, I’ll be back running the liveblog from 10.

For the morning crowd, here’s the main story so far. Across the country, UKIP are making incredible headway and stopping Labour gaining councils – the idea they only take votes off the Tories is simply not playing out. However, they are struggling in London, and Labour are taking full advantage – the gains across the capital are incredible so far: Hammersmith & Fulham, Merton, and Haringey are all councils gained, while a good performance has been put up in Wandsworth. Redbridge and Croydon could also be gains by breakfast. (Just been told Croydon is “almost a certain win.”)

The Tories’ torrid time is overshadowed by Labour’s failure to capitalise. The Lib Dems even worse. See you in the morning.

It’s all been London news for the past couple of hours, which puts a nice spin on things, but the truth is that it has not been a good night. Not by a long stretch – Conor Pope

05.23: Final scores in Hammersmith & Fulham: Labour 26 (+11) Conservatives 20 (-11). Labour sources chuffed, pointing out it’s “Cameron’s favourite council” and that he was there campaigning last week. – CP

05.21: Labour need one more for control of Haringey. – CP

Screen Shot 2014-05-23 at 05.21.23

05.11: Three more gains sees Labour gain Hammersmith & Fulham council! Here’s what we said in mid-afternoon:

This is interesting. A source in Tory flagship borough Hammersmith & Fulham tells me “things are looking tighter and tighter” there. Currently, the Conservatives hold 31 of the 46 seats and Labour have the remaining 15. Labour held the council up until 2006, but the Tories have won majorities in both elections since then.”

When I relayed that to someone from London Labour regional office earlier, they were incredulous: “Far beyond our target for London.” – CP

05.09: Labour gain three in Redbridge from the Tories. Lookin’ good.

No UKIP councillors in Southampton.

05.08: Bristol remain No Overall Control, but Labour do make gains: LAB +4 (31), CON +1 (15), LD – 7 (160, UKIP +1 (1) IND -1 (1) Green +2 (6)

Once again, outside of London we’ve just not done enough. Incredibly frustrating. – CP

05.06: Don’t think I’ve mentioned Birmingham Yardley yet. It’s not good. – CP

Screen Shot 2014-05-23 at 05.06.29

05.00: Well, at 02.19 I said we’d gain Merton, and now… well, it’s still not been announced, but we’ve just gained two more there so it shouldn’t be long now. – CP

04.58: “Hang on 20 mins and we might have some very good news for you” I’m told for Hammersmith & Fulham. – CP

04.57: Results coming through from Redbridge now. Labour want to take control there. All Labour hold so far. – CP

04.54: Labour have now gained 8 seats in Hammersmith & Fulham. – CP

04.52: LGiU have a round-up of how the councils are looking so far:

Conservatives hold 15, Labour hold 21, Lib Dems hold 1, and 11 councils are NOC (the majority formerly Tory)

04.44: Possible reasons for Labour’s unexpected performance in H&F:

Screen Shot 2014-05-23 at 04.45.16

Also, based on size of Labour’s majority in New Addington and how close some of the marginals are, we’re expecting Labour to take Croydon council. – CP

04.42: Now expecting H&F soon. “Worth staying up for” I’ve been told. – CP

04.38: Turnout looking impressive across Hammersmith & Fulham and Labour looking strong, making six gains so far. As I said earlier, this is well beyond our London targets. – CP

04.30: Labour hold Southampton. – CP

04.27: Lincoln, another target for Labour, sees Labour make a couple of gains.

Labour gain New Addington ward, one of three we need to win in Croydon take control of the council. We’re expecting nothing more from there for the next couple of hours.

Aaaaand Haringey is about to declare, where Lib Dems have suffered a fate worse than George RR Martin character – and that all seems to be happening in Lynne Featherstone’s seat. – CP

04.22: Labour hold Carlisle – and no UKIP insurgence there at, as some predicted. Labour gain one off Lib Dems. – CP

04.19: Labour hold Rochdale, gaining seven seats: six off Conservatives and one off the Lib Dems. – CP

04.09: Turnout in Redbridge is 39%, according to Labour PPC for Ilford North West Streeting. We’ve been saying that turnout is key to Labour success in the several millennia since this liveblog started – and Redbridge is starting to look a safe bet for a much-needed Labour win. It’s about to declare.

Despite the popular vote in Peterborough, we’ve not taken the council. – CP

03.59: Labour have topped the popular vote in Peterborough, a target seat, although only by 76 votes. It’s currently held by Tory MP Stewar Jackson. – CP

03.34: Here’s the popular vote in Rotherham, courtesy of Peter Gaffney:

UKIP: 30,084 (44.3%)
Labour: 27,793 (40.9%)
Conservative: 6,482 (9.5%)
Other: 3,611

03.30: These thoughts from Lewis Baston just before we got the latest news about gains in Wandsworth:

“Labour had a warning from the Bradford West by-election in 2012 about the risks of ignoring its core vote, and the results in some authorities such as Rotherham are another poorly understood punch in the gut for the party. This is what happens when local parties get complacent. The Birmingham case is a bit different – the results are patchy rather than disastrous and one or two wards have even swung slightly towards Labour since 2012 (e.g. Edgbaston), but in the peripheral white working class wards of Kingstanding and King’s Norton the vote seems to have splintered to UKIP and let the Conservatives through.

There may be more cheerful news on the way from parts of London. The Labour-held Wandsworth ward of Graveney showed a fair-sized swing to Labour on the back of a collapsing Lib Dem vote. But tonight, who knows?”

03.27: UKIP look like they’ve performed well in the hyper-marginal seat of Thurrock, where they’re taking seats off Labour and the Tories (including the Tory leader) and look to be throwing the council into NOC from Labour – MF

03.14: Plenty if good news coming in from London.

In Wandsworth it’s a straight Labour v Tory fight, including one target seat for us (Battersea) and one for them (Tooting). Labour have five confirmed gains so far to make it our best night in the borough since 1986.

Keep an eye on Haringey, where we have a target seat in Hornsey & Wood Green (Lynne Featherstone), because Labour are looking at an excellent night there, at the Lib Dems’ expense.

In Waltham Forest, Labour look to have defeated the leader of the Lib Dem group, who was council leader until 2010.

And in Essex, Eric Pickles’ council has gone to No Overall Control. – CP

03.08: Screen Shot 2014-05-23 at 03.08.02

02.59: Hmm. UKIP said to have beaten Labour in popular vote in Rotherham. If that’s the case, then it’s very, very worrying. UKIP could be seriously looking at that for the general election next May. – CP

02.54: Labour source: hopeful of gains in key election battleground Reading and have held off UKIP in Hastings to get the biggest ever Labour group there. – CP

mitcham

02.47: News in from Wandsworth that we’re making a few good gains there, in Justine Greening’s seat of Putney. But we wouldn’t be expecting to take Wandsworth even on a very, very good night. Seems to be reflection of Labour vote holding up well across London so far.

02.43: Round-up of UKIP gains so far, courtesy of Nick Lowles at Hope Not Hate:

“Here’s the UKIP gains that I can find. At 2am it stands at 30:

Castle Point (5)

Basildon (3)

Rotherham (10)

Peterborough (2)

Hull (1)

Southend (5)

Hartlepool (2)

Cannock Chase (6)

Broxbourne (1)

Thurrock (1)

Sandwell (1)”

02.41: London councils are taking longer than we expected to count – this might be due to a slightly higher turnout than expected (slightly). Still looking OK for Labour in target councils Redbridge and Croydon.

Stevenage could see Labour making gains.

In Swindon, Labour have won the popular vote, with a 4% lead over the Tories – that would see us win target seat Swindon South. – CP

02.38: This is the latest from the LGiU liveblog

10 Labour Holds, 5 Conservative Holds, 4 NOCs (all formerly Conservative)

Sunderland – Lab Hold
Broxbourne – Con Hold
Hull – Lab Hold
Birmingham – Lab Hold
S Tyneside – Lab Hold
Swindon – Con Hold
Cannock Chase – Lab Hold
Tandridge – Con Hold
Runnymede – Con Hold
Sandwell – Lab Hold
Hertsmere – Con Hold
Castlepoint – NOC
Hartlepool – Lab Hold
Basildon – NOC
Stevenage – Lab Hold
Rotherham – Lab Hold
Birmingham – Lab Hold
Southend on Sea – NOC
Peterborough – NOC

02.33: The fact that Labour are “cautiously optimistic” of a win in Merton is because Labour have gained all three seats in Lower Morden ward – two Tories and one from UKIP. Cause for cheer. – CP

02.19: GAIN? Sounds like Labour are taking control of Merton council. – CP

02.04: Labour appear to have lost two seats in Birmingham to the Tories. – MF

01.57: CORRECTION: BBC now reporting that Labour have NOT lost control of Hartlepool council. Not clear what current make-up there is – if anyone there can shed some light, please get in touch. – CP

01.53: Labour have lost two seats to UKIP in Hartlepool and overall control of the council. It’s bad news. – CP

01.41: UKIP have made five gains from Labour on Rotherham council so far, including the leader and deputy leader of the council. CORRECTION: Leader Roger Stone was not up for election this year. - CP

01.28: Let me be your harbinger of doom. We’re onto a third recount in a Hartlepool ward, where Labour lead UKIP by a single vote.

But in Rotherham, I’ve just heard that the leader of the Labour group has lost his seat to UKIP…CP

01.25: Labour have won a by-election in Hartshill ward of Warwickshire County Council. The ward covers two constituencies (North Warks – Tory Maj 54 and Nuneaton). Meanwhile in one ward in Hartlepool, UKIP are just one vote behind Labour. Then again, they did once make a mascot their Mayor, so they have an independent streak…

01.20: Ace poll watcher Lewis Baston will be joining us periodically throughout the liveblog. Here’s his thoughts so far:

The Swindon results look (and are) disappointing, but it’s important to note that there were ward boundary changes that meant that the whole council was elected in 2012, which was a pretty good Labour year, rather than 2010.

The first complete council declaration tonight is over and it will surprise nobody who has stayed up for an election before that it is Sunderland. From a Labour  point of view the results there are mediocre to grisly. While no seats were lost to UKIP, the party did poll 24.3 per cent of the vote and came second, while in 2012 they had polled only 5 per cent. Looking at change since 2012, Labour is down from 61.3 per cent to 46.3 per cent while the Tories slipped only marginally from 20.9 per cent to 19.4 per cent. Comparing with 2010 there is a sickly-looking 1.6 per cent swing to Labour from the Conservatives, and Labour made a net loss, trading one seat each way with the Tories and losing one to an Independent. MUST. DO. BETTER.”

01.17: Graham Stringer’s on the BBC criticising Labour’s campaign. That won’t rattle Labour too much though – he’s been critical before (several times). He says things have been “unforgiveably unprofessional” though, which is cutting.

01.14: Looks like the Tories have held Swindon council.

00.57: Tories have gained a seat from Labour in Swindon – as was suggested earlier. That was somewhere we wanted to gain seats, not lose them… – MF

00.51: Stevenage are starting to count now – it’s another southern marginal Labour need to keep an eye on yet. Their initial declaration time was predicted as 2am, but that’s looking a bit optimistic now. Tory vote seems to be holding up in swing seat Swindon. – CP

00.37: It seems so far like Labour’s performance in London is going to be better than in the country as a whole. Keep an eye on Redbridge, Croydon and Tower Hamlets for starters. Sadiq Khan will deserve credit if Labour make gains – especially as Labour actually did quite well in London when these councils were last up for grabs in 2010 – MF

00.27: Rumours (Hooray! More baseless speculation!) that Mike Hancock MP (the suspended Lib Dem in Portsmouth) has lost his council seat to UKIP. – CP

00.16: BBC reporting that Labour will lose Great Yarmouth council tomorrow. That’s another important marginal for next year too…

00.10: As Conor has just pointed out, rumours are circulating that Labour might lose seats to the Tories in Swindon – where Ed Miliband had a bad radio interview this week. That’s a Southern marginal where Labour want to win in 2015. – MF

00.08: BBC reporting that Labour might lose seats in marginal Swindon, where Tories have a majority of one. Result expected sometime after 2am. – CP

00.05: Labour haven’t lost a seat to UKIP yet, but we have lost seats to the Independents in Sunderland. – MF

00.03: New YouGov general election poll has Labour and Tory tied on 34%, UKIP on 14%, Lib Dems 9%.

In Hull, where we’re expecting an early result around 1am, word is going around that UKIP are doing much better than expected. – CP

23.46: Broxburne had been expected to announce first – around now in fact – but an unexpectedly high turnout has meant that it will be a while yet. Someone who grew up there tells me it has a “horribly right wing” council and by the sounds of it UKIP are smashing it there. – CP

23.35: It’s not just Labour people who have barely waited for polls to close before mounting an offensive within their own party – here’s Tory MP Douglas Carswell all but conceding his party have come 3rd in the Euros and calling for a UKIP/Tory pact.

23.25: So, there’s a pretty ugly front page for Labour from the Times tomorrow.

Times front page 2014-05-22 23-24-27

Highlights – if you can call them that – include a “Leading Labour figure” saying ““The narrative around Ed Miliband, because it’s the truth, is that he looks weird, sounds weird, is weird”, blame being hurled at Douglas Alexander and members of Miliband’s team for the election campaign, and a “Senior MP” saying that “There’s no firm person who is running organisation of the campaign”. And all of this before the results have even come in. Now if the results are good for Labour all this will be forgotten as a blip or jitters. But if things go badly, this could be a tricky week. Let’s see what the results are like first though. – MF

23.20: What can you learn from two council seats? Nothing! Well, almost. Two wards have been declared in Sunderland, and Labour have held both comfortably, as expected. But in both, UKIP have gone from not standing, to second place finish with over 30% of the vote. Not enough to scare Labour in such a safe area, but it shows them making real inroads to our heartlands – and Labour’s vote has dropped by almost 25% in one of those seats. Broxbourne, meanwhile, is expected to be the first council to declare fully. It’s safe Tory there, and UKIP have no councillors – but it sounds like Farage’s party are doing very well indeed. – CP

22.45: I know what you’re thinking – you’re thinking “Mark and Conor, this liveblog is already almost 16 hours old. When do we get into the white heat of closely contested councils and marginal seats to look at for 2015?”. That’s a great question – however I’m afraid for the next coupld of hours it’s slim pickings. Conor has crunched the numbers on the first few councils to announce, and it looks like Cannock Chase could be very interesting – and not just because everyone will be wondering what Aidan Burley is wearing. Croydon and Redbridge at 2ish are obviously worth keeping an eye on – marginal councils and marginal seats, so plenty on the line. – MF

22.29: Labour HQ predicting turnout in the mid to low thirties and are confident of making gains in “key marginal general election 2015 areas”.

22.16: I can only speak from what I’ve seen and heard myself today, but where I was campaigning in Barnet the reception was positive (I got three whoops, two hugs and a handshake on the doorstep – which in a true blue Tory constituency was pretty nice). Elsewhere the issue seems to be turnout – if Labour got the vote out we’ll do ok in these local elections. But win, lose or draw – I’m feeling very proud of lots of friends tonight – candidates and activists who have given their all. Wherever you campaigned, you’ll have learned things and had conversations that will bear fruit in future, whatever the results tonight and tomorrow – I know I did. – MF

22.11: I’ve just been speaking to Labour sources inside Brewers Green to get their take on how today has gone. I’m told that early indications were good on turnout but rain later in the day made it hard to say for sure. Their focus – at least in the next 48 hours – will be on councils that map over to marginal seats (Cambridge and Redbridge were mentioned). Their line of attack will be that the Tories need to be winning seats, but instead they’ll be losing them. And as for the Lib Dems – disaster. No talk of UKIp so far – that’s because they want to keep the focus on the locals, because we won’t know the European election results until Sunday. – MF

22.02: I know a few people have said it on LabourList in recent days – and elsewhere – but if you’ve been out there today knocking on doors, sitting on polling stations, driving people to vote, phonebanking or running a committee room. You. Are. Amazing. If you ahve a count to go to – good luck. If your count is tomorrow – or Sunday – have a sit down and relax, because you’ve done all you can. And whatever you’ve done today or in the weeks beforehand, stick with us throughout tonight and tomorrow for all of the Labour news and results. (And, by 2am, photographs of cans of red bull, I imagine) – MF.

22.00: POLLS HAVE CLOSED. How are we feeling? Send in results and any other information from your local area to elections@labourlist.org – AND LET THE COUNTING BEGIN. – MF

20.08: Well that self-imposed silence hasn’t gone well, has it? This is just a small update to note a couple of things: 1. A couple of people have sent us this (thankyou!). Mike Smithson, of PoliticalBetting.com, has tweeted that turnout looks set to be the highest ever for a European election – it could even reach 40%. This is contrary to some (admittedly not very scientific) reports I’ve heard, but it could spell out good news for Labour nationally. 2. There won’t be any exit polls tonight, even for the council elections. They are very expensive to carry out, and BBC and ITV do a shared one for general elections only. UK Polling Report has a good blog on it. – CP

19.02: Me and Mark have both spoken of the need for a big turnout today – it’s the only way we have a chance against UKIP. But there’s no point just wishing it to happen: he’s been out on the doorstep all afternoon and for the final few hours I will be too. There’s nothing more we can say on this liveblog until the polls close. We’ll keep an eye on the inbox so if you have something to send us, please do, but other than that, we’re done for now. So please, knock on a few doors tonight! See you on the other side. - CP

18.26: An interesting note from Stuart, who’s canvassing in South Yorkshire today. He said he had a long chat on the doorstep with a currently unemployed ex-miner this morning who, after years of voting Labour, has cast his ballot for UKIP in these elections “as a protest”. What is really interesting is that this man was unaware of UKIP’s positions on the NHS, trade unions and tax – and was appalled at what he heard. Labour’s recent strategy has been to depict UKIP as ultra-Thatcherite, but it seems that in a lot of places it simply hasn’t cut through. Something to ponder. – CP  

17.50: Here is a picture of a cat. – CP cat voting Labour

17.31: If you’re out on the doorstep today and you’re tired, you’re soaked, you’re flagging, you’re losing motivation, and you’re starting to wonder what the point of it all is, then let me recommend having a quick look at the #LabourDoorstep tag on Twitter. There’s been thousands of tweets and photos across the country in the last twenty four hours alone, and they will be sure to spur you one. It’s incredible being able to see people all over, from Southampton to Stirling, all taking the same message out: Vote Labour.

Matt Gillespie tweet tower hamlets

Matt Gillespie = doing it right. – CP

16.58: More from Tower Hamlets – sources confirm that Labour’s election co-ordinator Douglas Alexander is currently on his way to do some GOTV with John Biggs. We’re definitely taking it seriously then, and there’ll be no let up this evening. They’re going to squeeze every last Labour vote out of that borough. Hopefully we’ll have an idea of how it’s going when polls close, but the result isn’t expected until teatime tomorrow. – CP

16.42: Tower Hamlets have got elections for their directly-elected mayor today. Last time, independent Lutfur Rahman won on a 25.6% turnout, finishing well ahead of the Labour candidates Helal Abbas. I’ve just got wind that turnout has already far surpassed the number for 2010 – and there’s still five and a half hours left of voting. What does this mean for Labour? Well, it’s supposedly good news. The theory goes that Lutfur Rahman only has a certain level of support in the borough, and they all went out to vote for him last time. On a low turnout, this gave him a resounding victory. Labour should have a much broader bank of support, and more votes cast suggests that a much better job has been done of getting our supporters to cast their ballots for Labour’s John Biggs. The local party will by no means be resting on their laurels – especially with a 12,000 majority to overcome. But it’s clear now that this is in play, so if you can get down there to help at all this evening, you should, because it’s one that could go down to the wire. – CP

16.25: It just wouldn’t be polling day if we didn’t have a misleading Lib Dem leaflet to share! This effort in Camden Town with Primrose Hill ward (Camden Council) is not only a dodgy bar chart – it’s giving the results for a completely different ward. The figures on show are actually the 2010 results from St. Pancras and Somers Town. – CP

camden lib dems

15.51: This is interesting. A source in Tory flagship borough Hammersmith & Fulham tells me “things are looking tighter and tighter” there. Currently, the Conservatives hold 31 of the 46 seats and Labour have the remaining 15. Labour held the council up until 2006, but the Tories have won majorities in both elections since then. The result for H&F is expected at the totally unreasonable time of 9am tomorrow morning, which falls slap in the middle of our intended nap time. We’ll make sure one of us is up if a big swing is on the cards. Any other councils we should be keeping an eye on tonight? Drop us an email to the address above. – CP

15.15: Good to see that, 114 years after it was founded, the Labour Party has totally nailed the idea of Get Out The Vote. – CP

Screen Shot 2014-05-22 at 14.48.07

15.01: Soggy candidates, we salute you. – CP

Screen Shot 2014-05-22 at 15.00.08

14.56: I know, I know, weather updates are incredibly dull. But wow! The storm has just hit here in South London, where it has been sunny and warm up until now. I know a few people who would scold me for suggesting that such a climate exists, but it is totally uncanvassable in.

The workers at the polling station I voted in earlier told me that they had been “very, very, very busy”, but it’s hard to see how this weather won’t affect turnout – bad news for Labour. Ryland Doyle from Swansea East tells me they’ve been having trouble motivating people to leave the house all day, while LabourList columnist Amy Lamé says: “We’re currently lost in a bizarrely numbered 1960s block of flats. The heavens have opened and there’s a massive thunder and lightning storm here in Bloomsbury. Getting the vote out? *groan*”

I have total sympathy for Amy. Getting lost on in a bizzarely numbered 1960s block of flats as the heavens open is surely a polling day rite of passage? Anyone got any others? – CP

14.30: My inbox is creaking with stuff coming in, so please bear with me if you’ve sent something and it’s not gone up. Do keep them coming in! I’m a big fan fan of homemade signs. Here we have Lancaster University Labour Club’s effort for the University ward by-election:

lancaster university labour

While in Fulham they’ve managed to fit a policy on!

fulham labour

14.09: I’d like to give a special shoutout to “paper candidates” today. There will always be places where the chances of Labour being voted in are incredibly slim, but I have nothing but respect for those who stand anyway. Spending hours upon hours campaigning can be (how can I put this?) not the most fun, and even less so when you’re not expecting anything to come of it. But people should have the chance to vote Labour, and when there’s this many seats up for grabs, there’s always going to be an upset somewhere…

So, in what is so often a thankless task, I want to take this opportunity to say: thankyou – you are brilliant.

On a completely unrelated note, I’ve been enjoying the campaign run by the three candidates running for Westminster City Council in the Knightsbridge and Belgravia ward (described by the council as an “ultra-expensive residential area”). When I spoke to one of the candidates yesterday, he told me there were “No no-go areas for Labour”. Some of their posters have brought a smile to my face:

BoJ3QcECYAII6Om

Good luck to Joseph Blenkinsop, Rosalyn Buckland and Tom Williams there today. – CP

13.29: Here we go! I’ve been and voted, bought a packet of biscuits and brewed a Labour Win cup of tea, so I’m all ready to be here until around the time polls close – send any photos or stories you want to share through to the email above or tweet me and I’ll do my best to get through them all. To get us going, here’s a Drake/Ed Miliband mash up video. If that doesn’t give you a smile on the doorstep, I just don’t know what will. – CP

13.15: I’m handing over liveblog duties to Conor Pope for the next few hours – he’ll be taking you through this afternoon and into this evening. I’ll be back by close of polls to take you into the early hours. But first – I’ve got doors to knock on. Good luck everyone. – MF

13.11: South Basildon and East Thurrock is a target seat for Labour – the reg flag is flying there this afternoon:

IMG-20140522-01460

12.59: Meanwhile, it seems that UKIP are unhappy with the way the ballots are folded… – MF

12.51: The most “rock and roll” experience on election day so far is probably being had by Crouch End Labour candidate Natan Doron – he’s already had Bernard Butler (of Suede) and Gem Archer (of Oasis and Beady Eye) tell them they’re voting for him. Here’s Natan and Gem earlier today – MF:

Gem Archer Natan Doron

12.35: In London, there positive noises from across the city so far, but it’s far too early to mean much at this stage.

12.25: Standard polling day shenanigans in Tower Hamlets? There are now police officers on every polling station in the borough, where former-Labour Independent Lutfur Rahman is up against Labour’s John Biggs.

12.15: So as my Twitter and Facebook timelines begin to fill up with more wet looking candidates and activists, it’s important to note that the weather today – and the impact on turnout – is likely to be even more pronounced because of postal voting. I don’t know much about the party’s postal vote operation at a national level, but I do know from experience that it’s patchy across the country. Rumours are circulating amongst activists in several different parts of the country that UKIP are doing well on postal votes (mostly outside London). If that’s correct, and it’s raining all day today, postal votes could be vital in terms of final results. - MF

11.50: Here’s the weather in the UK at the moment (via the BBC). Rain heading eastwards. Oh dear… – MF

Election Day Weather 2014-05-22 11-55-08

11.34: What about the weather? Always a good question to ask when turnout is in question. In Chester for example, whilst it was blazing sunshine yesterday, today it’s in Chester it’s steady drizzle predicted to get heavier over the day with possible thunder. When 2 or 3% can make the difference between a seat, will the rain have an influence on turnout and the final result? No-one should ever be allowed to get away with using the weather as a reason for losing on election day – because it looks dreadful. But no-one who has ever done an election day in the rain would deny it’s a factor, however small. – MF

10.32: It shouldn’t need saying, but if today is a turnout election, then you need to make sure you vote. Frankly if you’re reading a LabourList liveblog then you’re almost certainly voting and voting Labour. But what the party also needs today are activists out on the doorsteps, on polling stations and helping in committee rooms. If you can get out and campaign today, please do – this election really matters. And if you need convincing/rousing – this video always helps for me – MF:

10.05: If today is all about turnout, then we may get some variable results across the country. So far I’ve had activists and candidates describe the turnout in their areas one of three ways – brisk, steady or slow – obviously turnout will be higher in areas with local elections. Will that be enough for Labour to topple UKIP in the European elections too? Don’t forget you can email us and let us know how things are going where you are – MF 10.03: If you get a chance today, read Emma Burnell’s “Thank You” post to Labour activists, candidates and staff. – MF 09.45: Ok – so via both Twitter and your emails – here’s some of our favourite photos from election day so far. Here’s Slough councillor Pavitar Mann “dressed to impress” – MF: Pavitar Mann 2014-05-22 09-45-43 09.40: And Miliband ally Peter Hain has criticised the way Labour has campaigned against UKIP:

Several senior MPs believe Labour has not taken the threat from Nigel Farage’s party seriously enough. Canvassing in their constituencies has convinced them that many traditional Labour supporters will split their vote by backing Ukip in the Euro elections and Labour in the council elections in England. There are no local elections in Scotland and Wales. Peter Hain, the former Cabinet minister, told The Independent: “I don’t think we had a sufficiently robust strategy towards Ukip. It’s not about whether some of their members are racist. “The problem is that there is a seriously alienated – mostly white working class, often male – vote out there that was traditionally Labour’s. They are not voting any more.” – Independent

09.37: Nick Clegg has attacked Labour and suggested he wouldn’t want a Lab/Lib coalition (Subtle timing there Nick):

Nick Clegg has significantly raised the bar to a power-sharing deal with Labour with a forthright attack on Ed Miliband’s “regressive” policies. The deputy prime minister said last night that it “might not be possible” to enter a coalition with Mr Miliband next year, even if the parliamentary arithmetic allowed. He was speaking on the eve of elections that could result in the Lib Dems being driven into fifth place. – The Times(£)

09.30: Let’s round up a few of the election day news stories – first up, let’s take a look at Nigel Farage’s vile approach to women – and his “common fronts” with Le Pen:

Nigel Farage explained his party’s attitude to women by bragging about the number who he had made pregnant, Political Scrapbook can reveal. Speaking to an obscure (and now defunct) Belgian magazine, the UKIP leader claimed that the four children from his two marriages were merely the “official list” before adding: “maybe it’s because I’ve got so many women pregnant over the years that I have a different view” – Political Scrapbook

Nigel Farage has said Ukip may have enough “common fronts” with France’s Front National to vote with the party and other Eurosceptic groups to block legislation in Brussels. In advance of this week’s European elections, the Ukip leader said there was a possibility that anti-EU parties of “varying shades” from left to right will have more than a third of the seats in the European parliament, which would allow them to form a “blocking minority”. – Guardian

09.06: UKIP expectations They need to win the Euro elections – it’s as simple as that. If they win today it’s the biggest day in their history. If they come second, they look like a busted flush. However, the unknown factor is the local elections – UKIP will want to win a sizeable number of council seats and challenge Labour and the Tories across the country to prove they’re not a one trick pony. 09.02: Lib Dem expectations This one won’t take long – the Lib Dems will be spinning that anything short of annihilation is a good result for them. They could lose all of their MPs and will get an almighty kicking in council elections. Success for them probably looks like avoiding a 5th place finish behind the Green Party – MF 09.00: Tory Expectations The Tory expectations can be explained quite simply – they’re braced to place 3rd in this election behind Labour and UKIP. That would be an undoubtedly bad result, especially as the Tory vote looks set to collapse in the areas of the country (Scotland, Wales, the North) that they need to make inroads into next year if they want to gain a majority. As for the council elections, they’ll be hoping to keep the losses to a minimum, but will lose councils to Labour. – MF 08.55: Now let’s have a look at the expectations of each of the four main parties in this election – starting with Labour. Labour expectations Press reports this morning suggest that the have been briefing that 25% would be a good result for Labour in the European elections, although there seems some resignation that UKIP are most likely to win, which would be a troubling result (although the polls suggest it’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion – see 08.45). As for the local elections, Labour will want to see 150-200 council seats gained to consider this a good night. That’s lower than the expectations of some experts – but that’s how the expectations game works, of course. – MF 08.45: Let’s have a quick look at the final polls that came out last night – as they show us what’s in play today. YouGov has UKIP leader Labour by a single point – considering that factors in likelihood to vote (and UKIP voters are more likely to vote) that means (as I wrote earlier this week) that Labour can still win today if our turnout operation works well. Also, as Mike Smithson notes over at Political Betting, the confusion of having “An Independence from Europe” at the top of the ballot paper could cost UKIP votes, as could other anti-EU parties like No2EU. If you YouGov poll is correct, and Labour activists manage to turn out the Labour vote today, 1st place in the European elections is still possible. However, ComRes have a poll out suggesting that UKIP are 7 points ahead of Labour. If that’s right, that’s not a lead that can be overturned on election day. Only one of these final polls can be right, but YouGov’s poll had a sample of 6,000 – so here’s hoping that one is more accurate… – MF 08.30: Ok – so I’m back from my stint as a teller at my local polling station, and I can confirm that people are voting…I promise the updates will become more enlightening as the day proceeds… - MF 07.00: It’s election day and the polls have opened in the European elections (and local elections across many metropolitan areas). Our liveblog will be taking you through the whole of election day and on through the night until tomorrow afternoon’s results. And then – because we know you can’t get enough – we’ll be back on Sunday evening to liveblog the European election results too. The liveblog will be run at various points by me (Mark Ferguson) and Conor Pope – so posts will either be marked as MF or CP depending on who’s running the liveblog at any point. Crucially – we want to hear from you, and hear how things are going in your area.

  • Got a big campaign team out?
  • Got a leaflet you want to share?
  • Want to let us know results from your local count?

You can email us on elections@labourlist.org throughout the liveblog to take part in what promises to be a long and interesting day for Labour and British politics. As for me – I’ll be back in an hour – I’ve got a polling station to go to. Keep checking back through the day (and tomorrow) for updates), and don’t forget to vote (Labour) - MF

Election Liveblog 2014-05-21 17-56-55

  • Holly

    The British weather usually has a part to play…..
    It is absolutely chucking it down here.(Huddersfield)

    • John Ruddy

      I’ve often thought so too, but apparently thats a myth.

      • Holly

        It’s mything it down up ‘ere.

        • JoeDM

          Yep, enough to get pretty mythed off by it all.

          • Holly

            Try not to get myth wet through when you pop off to vote…
            if you haven’t already done so.

        • Steve Stubbs

          LOL

          Well I need to laugh at something today, the results will be dismal reading.

  • denise clendinning

    i have voted LABOUR

  • Danny

    “Frankly if you’re reading a LabourList liveblog then you’re almost certainly voting and voting Labour”

    Really? Do you spend much time in the comments section of your website?!

    I think some commentators are more likely to vote BNP than Labour.

    • RWP

      Yes, an unworthy assumption. I voted today but not exclusively for Labour candidates.

  • RWP

    Is the live blog still working? over an hour since last update?
    Rain forecast later!!

  • swatnan

    I voted Labour 2 weeks ago. Polling Day should be a day for quiet contemplation and not a day for frenzied activity, and least of all, Election minute by minute Liveblogs.
    Do give it a rest, and leave the voters to go about their business without any further harassment. They’ve already made up their minds weeks ago, like me.
    It’ll all come out in the wash any way by the weekend. We could also do with a ban on Opinion Polls as well.

    • Chilbaldi

      Simply not true. Many voters need a final push on polling day, even just a push to get them to walk to the polling station.

  • RWP

    Was watching SKY news whilst in the barbers and 1pm headlines came on…not a single mention of the election (focusing on Thailand, Ukraine, other matters). Is this some kind of bias or is there a rule against reporting about political events on polling day?

  • Mike B

    When today is over I recommend reading the section in A J Ayers 1st volume of his autobiography where he describes how canvassing was done when he stood as a Labour council candidate in Soho in the 1930’s. Things were very different in those days.

  • BillFrancisOConnor

    Voted Labour- Proud to do so.

  • BillFrancisOConnor

    Peter Lello the UKIP candidate to be mayor of Lewisham has been arrested on suspicion of sexual assault on a homeless Bulgarian man:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/22/ukip-candidate-arrested-alleged-sexual-assault

  • Paul Adams

    Voted Labour a few minutes ago with the immense satisfaction I always get from doing so!
    Re UKIP, I agree with the story about the ex-Miner voting for them and unaware of their reactionary policies – Labour must step up their attacks on UKIP for being Thatcherite ( but perhaps not go on so much about them being racist, a disputed concept in any case, but also one unlikely to carry much weight with WWC voters.)

    • JoeDM

      Many would wear the ‘Thatcherite’ badge with pride in memory of the great woman and the economic reforms of the 1980s that rescued this country from the dark days of the dreadful 1970s..

      • Danny

        I suspect more would p*ss on it sooner than wear it.

        • treborc1

          What about the son of Thatcher, Blair period in power was nearly as bad..

          • Danny

            Yep, I’d p*ss on a Blair badge as well.

          • treborc1

            That’s the problem telling people new labour is dead is not enough you have to prove it.

          • leslie48

            Except TB’s Labour won 3 elections. UK economy roared ahead until 2008, child poverty came down, infrastructure improved, and so on; tony saved us from 18 years of Hard Tory rule and will remain historically long after the moaning hard Left have been made extinct. Labour has almost become the natural party of government since 1997 and yet again today we are up on the highest popular vote, People feel save with Labour as it become less extreme.

  • TRAV1S

    Labour is the party of vote rigging and voter intimidation. It makes me sick. Ed Miliband should be ashamed.

    • Brumanuensis

      I see the English Democrats are getting their excuses in early.

  • Doug Smith

    Some contributors are, it seems, proudly declaring their vote for Labour.

    But what have they voted for? How will Labour contribute to the EU project and what do they expect in return? More austerity? More unemployment? More disastrous expansion? More economic chaos?

    There doesn’t appear to be much else on offer.

    • leslie48

      A bloody good defence of EU would be a good place to start. Lets tell our ex-voters that any exit from our 27 EU partners will threaten our growth, our trade, exports, our inward investment, our jobs and will definitely see a leakage of human capital and entrepreneurs to ? Well Europe of course come on boys lets go and start up in Holland, Finland, Sweden, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, France where the air is fresh and people have an understanding of economics and social democracy beyond our poor tabloid reading Essex man. Yes our party has made a bloody big mistake …its utter failure to sell why its beneficial to be with 27 other countries rather than a UKIP England. Ask a man in Basildon why the EU is good for us; he could not because No one has ever, ever told him!

      • Doug Smith

        But Leslie, the EU is an economic disaster zone characterised by low growth and high unemployment – thanks to EU enforced austerity policies.

        If I was a young person living in Greece, Italy, Spain or Ireland my first ambition would be to get out of the Eurozone – easiest solution: head for the U.K. This is not to say life is rosy in LibLabCon Britain but because we have control of our own currency etc we’ve kept ourselves at arms length from the disaster.

        The reason Labour didn’t bother saying anything positive about the EU is because there’s very little that’s positive to say – unless you want to board the corporate/political elite gravy train.

        • LeeMatthews

          And now it looks as though the ECB are looking at loosening their monetary policy, while many other countries are able to tighten theirs. Good news for me as i live in France and keep my money in the UK, bad news for EU Citizens.

        • leslie48

          You are singling out countries with serious deficit/ taxation problems or banking systems brought to the brink by massive property collapses; its unlikely any of these countries would ever go for a UKIP exit solution. Indeed Greece aside the EU project is popular in Spain, Italy and Ireland. Indeed the EU rescued Greece from oblivion from massive default. With out the EU bail outs Ireland and Greece and Portugal would have been down the shoot. Moreover you can not blame the EU membership as a solid reason for their crises just as you cannot blame the UK or US or Iceland for their serious banking problems in 2008. You are of course forgetting ( generally) successful EU economies like Germany, Austria , Belgium, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Holland.

          • Doug Smith

            A growth rate of 0.2% is successful? Or were you thinking the boom period early last year when growth topped-out at a staggering 0.3%? ; )

          • leslie48

            is that’s an average figure; we should compare ourselves with the better off Europeans not places like Cyprus etc., any way we are and remain a pro-european party . Trolls should go off to UKIP site or whatever not hang around with discussions about strategy, or tactics of the party which won the highest share of the popular votes.,

          • Hugh

            That Irish, Spanish, Portguese and Italian popularity in full:

            “For the EU please tell me if you tend to trust it or tend not to trust it:”

            Results:
            Ireland: trust 34%; don’t trust 54%
            Spain: trust 21%; don’t trust 71%
            Italy: trust 23%; don’t trust 62%

            q11. “In general does the EU conjure up a very positive, fairly positive, neutral, fairly negative or very negative image?”

            Results:
            Italy 26% positive; 34% negative
            Portugal 22% positive; 39% negative
            Spain 26% positive; 29% negative.

            Only in Ireland do the positive numbers outweigh the negative.

            http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/archives/eb/eb80/eb80_publ_en.pdf

            Since I’ve linked you to the report before (the EU’s own research on its popularity) I sort of wonder why you keep insisting that the EU’s unpopularity is a uniquely UK (or Greek) phenomenom. What are you basing your claims on?

          • leslie48

            Not on a single questionnaire but the facts of the European electorate. Find me one society out of the 28 ( UKIP excepted) which wants exit. On Sunday the Euro elections will show that the vast majority of europeans are pro_Europe. That’s fact.

          • Hugh

            Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs in Austria, People’s Movement against the EU and the Unity List in Denmark, Front National in France, Lega Nord in Italy, The True Fins in Finland, and the Left Party of Sweden, among others, all advocate either a referndum or withdrawal.

            Eurosceptic parties are expected to make gains across the EU in the elections, but it is hardly the clearest barometer of EU citizens’ attitudes to the EU. Rather, the “single questionnaire” – the EU’s own Eurobarometer – is actually part of a regular series that shows widespread euroscepticism across Europe and is the closest, most comprehensive guide we have as to the “facts” of the European electorate. Your assertions are, in fact, almost unalloyed fiction.

          • LeeMatthews

            So popular in Ireland that they got to vote for it twice!

      • LeeMatthews

        ” any exit from our 27 EU partners will threaten our growth, our trade, exports, our inward investment, our jobs and will definitely see a leakage of human capital and entrepreneurs to”

        Tony Blair said that would happen if we did not join the Eurozone and ditch the pound many years ago!

  • jaime taurosangastre candelas

    I had intended to vote Green locally and UKIP for the MEP.

    My ballot list for the local Council did not include the Green, despite getting a leaflet a few weeks ago. Perhaps she pulled out? I do not know. So I voted for Labour locally. Not that it will matter in Cambridgeshire, which is solidly blue. And that despite my slight irritation that Labour appear to have not tried to canvas my vote at all locally, and I have no idea at all what Labour offer to Huntingdonshire District Council. When faced with the choice of Tory, Lib Dem, UKIP or Labour I made the “least worst” choice.

    I did vote for UKIP as MEP, because I wish my voice to join many others to force an EU Referendum into active political discussion among the mainstream parties. I actually want there to be some “shock” level of UKIP support in the Euro elections so that Labour, the Tories and Lib Dems are forced to debate it. I have no intention of voting UKIP in national elections in the future.

  • BillFrancisOConnor

    UKIP are the real kings of smears. Check out Andy Burnham’s letter of complaint here:

    http://mikesivier.wordpress.com/2014/05/22/read-andy-burnhams-letter-of-complaint-to-nigel-farage-about-smears/

    • Danny

      I’m not looking forward to the next few days.

      You know when you’re in a hotel abroad and you see a loud-mouthed, loutish male who’s slobbing around the pool with a pint of beer at 10am, who never says please or thank you, swears around young children, speaks loudly and slowly to the native barstaff despite their grasp of English being better than his own, who lets out a loud cheer at dinner when some poor sod drops their plate, you feel that pang of shame that you share a nationality with said individual.

      Well, I’m going to experience a similar pang of shame when I see how many of my fellow countrymen have voted for that hideous, hypocritical, immoral shower of a political party called the UK Independence Party.

      • jaime taurosangastre candelas

        I feel equally ashamed of the British Chancellor who from 2001-2008 spent money like it was going out of fashion on pet projects, and who failed to regulate the financial sector.

        Until Labour issue an apology for hosting the Gordon Brown, and disassociate themselves from him, it will be difficult for me to vote for the Party at national elections. And that includes while Labour fail to get rid of the Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor.

        I would like the Ed Miliband to do something dramatic, like sacking the Ed Balls.

        • Danny

          Do you feel similar shame for Thatcher’s Big Bang deregulation of the financial sector and expect the Conservative Party to apologise hosting Margaret Thatcher?

          For what it’s worth, I think Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and probably Ed Balls (I think I’m too blinded by his football allegiance to form a credible opinion) are idiots and would love nothing more than for Ed Miliband to publicly distance himself from New Labour’s destructive antics and apologise for 13 years of missed opportunity (yes, I know there were some worthy achievements in that time before your Bill F O’Cs start piping up).

          But to withhold a vote from them until an apology for Brown is forthcoming in favour of a party like the Tories or UKIP, those bastions of bank regulation, is illogical.

          And what is with the “the Ed Miliband”, “the Ed Balls” etc?

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Danny,

            I recognise that me English grammar is not so wonderful. It is because I am not completely bilingual.

            My use of “the” {name} is in fact respectful, as Spanish allows for this, and I grew up speaking Spanish.

            My head is full of thoughts I think to myself in Spanish, normally my longer term and personal thoughts. My work-related thinking is normally in English. I dream those dreams I can recall on waking in both languages. If at the end of a working day I muddle them up and wrangle – or as my wife says “wrongle” the wrong grammar into the wrong language, it is my fault.

            Here is something. I find mathematics and bio-chemistry to be easier to deal with in Spanish, which is much more aligned to the Romano-Greco roots of Latinate languages than English. So when I so a mental calculation, I do it in Spanish, before translating the answer to English.

      • Doug Smith

        “lets out a loud cheer at dinner when some poor sod drops their plate”

        My experience has led me to believe those who drop plates in a holiday setting do so on purpose – in the hope of being rewarded with a cheer.

        And I’ve always been happy to enthusiastically oblige.

  • Brumanuensis

    Having voted at midday in central Brum, I can report that poll workers told me that turnout had been good, with a steady flow of voters. This seems to anecdotally corroborate what Mike Smithson says.

    EDIT: And I voted Labour in both the locals and European elections, of course.

  • Graeme Hancocks

    The Website “Election Game” – who have accurately predicted the outcome of virtually every election and by election within a percentage point – have just released their predictions for the Euro elections: con 23% Lab 26.4% Ukip 28.8% and Gn and LD neck and neck on circa 7%.

  • Doug Smith

    “[Miliband] he looks weird, sounds weird, is weird”

    Not many would argue with this. I suspect the PLP’s thrusting careerists won’t be wanting to wait until 2020 before getting another crack at the high-life. They’ll want it in 2015.

    I’ll put money on Ed throwing in the towel before conference. He’s made too many enemies to survive. The Blairites don’t like him for beating David. The Left doesn’t like him for dumping the unions. And the public don’t like and won’t vote for him on account of the absence of policy and his general weirdness.

    His is a politician without a power-base.

    • Brumanuensis

      I’ll put money on Ed throwing in the towel before conference

      Ed has been written off by people dozens of times in the past four years and yet he remains leader. He is not going to be ditched less than a year out from the election.

      The Blairites don’t like him for beating David. The Left doesn’t like him for dumping the unions. And the public don’t like and won’t vote for him on account of the absence of policy and his general weirdness.

      The first claim is about 3 years out of date. The second is a massive exaggeration and the third is just personal vitriol. No wonder you’ve started voting UKIP.

      • Doug Smith

        Guardian Northern Editor Helen Pidd has tweeted: “Ukip looking very strong all over Rotherham: in wards they claim they weren’t targeting as well as those they were.”

        It must be said, Ed’s not the sort of chap to cut the mustard up north. But will he fare any better down south?

        • Brumanuensis

          You mean other than leading his Party to a series of landslide victories in northern councils, and representing a northern seat.

          • Doug Smith

            “leading his Party”

            Goodness! I missed that.

          • Brumanuensis

            Have you actually got any evidence to back up your claim, or are you just engaging in snarky abuse?

          • Doug Smith

            If you’re referring to my ‘mustard’ claim then I have my own, very strong, ethnographic research. I’m sure it tallies with Labour’s own polling and focus group info.

            That’s why senior Labour figures have the ‘knifes out’ for Ed – as reported in the Times.

          • Brumanuensis

            If you’re referring to my ‘mustard’ claim then I only have my own ethnographic research. I’m sure it tallies with Labour’s own polling and focus group info.

            Your own ethnographic research? You mean you spoke to a few people down the pub?

            That’s why ‘senior Labour figures have the knifes out for Ed – as reported in the Times.

            Anonymous figure makes off-the-record comment. That’s just standard political complaining, not a sign of a serious challenge to Miliband’s leadership.

          • Doug Smith

            “you spoke to a few people down the pub?”

            Not at all mate, top quality research is my bread and butter.

            However, things really must be looking hopeless if you’re already losing your rag.

          • Brumanuensis

            Not at all mate, top quality research is my bread and butter.

            Really. And you have published this research where exactly? Because looking at actual election results, I can’t help but notice that Labour have done rather well in the north of England under Miliband’s leadership. How exactly does this fit into your pet theory?

            However, things really must be looking hopeless if you’re already losing your rag.

            You mean by asking you questions about what you base your opinion on? Yeah, I certainly am losing my rag. To be honest, it is but one question I have for you, the other being why someone who purports to hate neoliberals, is now supporting the most openly neoliberal political party in British politics.

          • i_bid

            Not that I could vote UKIP – I don’t bother voting, frankly – but a strong UKIP could deliver us PR, and so we can vote for non-neoliberals that the rest of the continent have, so I can understand it.

          • Brumanuensis

            but a strong UKIP could deliver us PR

            How? A strong vote for the SDP-Liberal Alliance in 1983 didn’t deliver PR and UKIP won’t match their share of the vote in 2015.

          • i_bid

            How? An insurgent third party that supports PR is the only way it’ll ever be delivered – because one failed, doesn’t automatically mean UKIP’s doomed to. However much I hated Thatcher she kept her people onside and happy, in a way I don’t think Miliband will, so you’ve the possibility that support will be coming from both (unlike SDP, when it was mainly from Labour). No-one predicted UKIP’s performance in these elections, so I can’t see how you can guarantee they won’t?

          • Brumanuensis

            How? An insurgent third party that supports PR is the only way it’ll ever be delivered – because one failed, doesn’t automatically mean UKIP’s doomed to

            What evidence is there that they’ll succeed?

            No-one predicted UKIP’s performance in these elections, so I can’t see how you can guarantee they won’t?

            Because UKIP performed well in the 2009 Euros and yet still failed to make any progress in the 2010 GE.

          • i_bid

            Well there isn’t, hence why I stressed they could – but certainly a strong UKIP is more likely to deliver it than a weak UKIP?

            Within FPTP, the soufflé-esque results largely reflect voter concerns they’re not a credible vehicle – repeated election shocks like tonight (in a way they never done in the noughties) help them convince voters of that.

          • Brumanuensis

            Well there isn’t, hence why I stressed they could – but certainly a strong UKIP is more likely to deliver it than a weak UKIP?

            So why didn’t that happen for the SDP in 1983 or for UKIP in 2004 or 2009? Bear in mind that SDP voters in 1983 actually preferred Thatcher to Foot, as Prime Minister.

            Within FPTP, the soufflé-esque results largely reflect voter concerns they’re not a credible vehicle – repeated election shocks like tonight (in a way they never done in the noughties) help them convince voters of that.

            That’s a fair point, but although we have some suggestive polling evidence about changes in voting intention, there’s little evidence yet that UKIP will sustain it into next year.

          • i_bid

            We’ll have to see: perhaps post-election polling can shed light on that.

          • Doug Smith

            “hate neoliberals”? It’s more to do with reasoned opposition, not hating.

            And I certainly don’t support the neoliberal ‘policies’ of UKIP – not that they’ll ever be in a position to enact them.

            Too much to talk about tonight Brum, but broadly I share the the position of Gabriel Kolko, as set out in his book: “After Socialism: Reconstructing Critical Social Thought”.

          • Brumanuensis

            And I certainly don’t support the neoliberal ‘policies’ of UKIP – not that they’ll ever be in a position to enact them.

            You’re voting for UKIP. That counts as support in my book.

          • Doug Smith

            Not voted today, mate. Though feel that perhaps I should have voted UKIP. I’ve never voted for any party other than Labour. But can’t see that I’ll be voting Labour again.

          • Brumanuensis

            Thank goodness for small mercies. But you have been openly advocating a vote for UKIP on this website, so I’m surprised you didn’t follow through on your intention.

          • Doug Smith

            I have supported Farage’s position on opposing EU expansion into Ukraine. That is why I have been tempted to vote for UKIP – EU interference in Ukraine has been disastrous.

          • Brumanuensis

            EU interference in Ukraine has been disastrous

            I will never understand how you think a few supportive words from Cathy Ashton is ‘interference’, but the Russians occupying Crimea and formenting civil war in the eastern regions of Ukraine isn’t? Or your continuing attempts to paint the entire Ukrainian government and by extension the anti-Yanukovych protestors as fascists, whilst ignoring the far-right elements within the pro-Russian militias.

          • Doug Smith

            Track back to the triparite arrangement suggested by Putin. And the inclusion of a clause requiring Ukraine’s convergence with NATO in the EU association agreement – EU diplomacy an its ham-fisted worst.

          • Brumanuensis

            Why should anyone trust anything Putin proposes? He is not negotiating in good faith on this issue.

            As for the alleged convergence with NATO, I want to see the specific section dealing with that claim. It certainly didn’t bother Yanukovych, whose preference for the Russians was because they offered ready cash, something the EU negotiators stupidly failed to offer the leader of a near-bankrupt country

          • i_bid

            Everyone voting Labour automatically supports their neoliberal policies, too?

          • Brumanuensis

            What ‘neoliberal policies’?

          • i_bid

            Accepting the Thatcherite consensus of privatisation, strict union laws, de-regulation etc

          • Brumanuensis

            Accepting the Thatcherite consensus of privatisation

            Is that why Ed is talking about renationalising rail franchises as they expire and Labour opposed the privatisation of the Royal Mail and parts of the NHS?

            strict union laws

            How has Ed taken a position on these?

            de-regulation

            Which current policies relate to this?

          • Doug Smith

            Following tonight’s disastrous results for Labour the voice of desperation will speak: we should expect an announcement supporting public ownership of the rail franchises by the weekend.

          • Brumanuensis

            So far we’ve made a net gain in seats and despite UKIP’s surge in some northern areas, we’ve maintained our majorities and only lost a few seats to them. Swindon is the only real disappointment, but the London results look good.

            You’re reaching, Doug.

          • Holly

            Don’t you see…
            While today’s Labour front bench are detached from their core voters believing that by gaining in London to, ‘get one up on the Tories’, and show they are ‘business friendly’, or can attract the middle/upper-middle classes, they are ignoring whole swathes of the north and the working class.
            Leaving them with the tag of being ‘out-of touch posh boys’, who have no idea of the problems that are genuinely concerning people, which are growing in variety by the year.
            It is today’s Labour front bench that has to do the changing, because the public seem to have a handle on what the Conservatives, Lib Dems and UKIP are basically about, regardless of what the likes of Ummuna, Miliband, and others believe.

          • Brumanuensis

            Doing well in the London suburbs, with numerous key marginal, is arguably more important than UKIP getting a protest vote in seats that will vote Labour next year anyway.
            Also, Ed polls better than Cameron on the question of being more ‘in touch’. Might want revise your hypothesis, Holly.

          • i_bid

            Is Labour going to reverse Royal Mail’s privatisation? It’s easy enough to oppose it – New Labour done exactly that, and then accepted it as its own when elected. Well why hasn’t Ed? Why hasn’t he mentioned – if at least to give unions some good news for a change? I can’t think of a de-regulation example, but I was actually talking about the entire post-Thatcherite reality that Labour – and consequently its voters ‘supported’.

          • Brumanuensis

            It’s al very well to propose re-nationalisation, but compensation the Royal Mail shareholders will cost money. The Tories have definitely done a number on us, but that’s no reason to blame Ed.
            As for the unions, that’s a massive exaggeration. Ed hasn’t announced anything remotely ‘anti-union’ during his time as leader, even if I don’t agree with all his proposals on changing party funding
            As for de-regulation, the lack of a specific example means that it’s impossible to discuss the issue. What are you referring to by ‘de-regulation’?

          • i_bid

            The de-regulation of the city brought in by Thatcher and accepted by New Labour. We’re getting away from the point I was making here, that is – if your position is to stand on this – you can’t just narrowly define it around Ed Miliband – you’re also condemning every Labour voter for supporting New Labour’s support for all that. Every vote for Labour government since Thatcher has helped support the shackles around the unions, on your own unforgiving terms.

          • Brumanuensis

            It’s one thing to vote Labour if you’re on the left, because whatever the problems of the Labour Party these past 20 years, it has accomplished some impressive things in social policy – the minimum wage, Sure Start, more funding for the NHS, the pensions reforms that led to auto-enrolment and the re-linking of pensions to wages, the Human Rights Act, etc. Voting UKIP because you’re unhappy with the neoliberal tendencies of Labour is just stupid. It’s illogical and incoherent.

          • i_bid

            That’s subjective, though. I could equally say every vote for Labour has been for whatever Tory policy came before it with a few things bolted on (with even some of its achievements seriously negated – minimum wage left to be eaten up by inflation, NHS funding brought by cancerous PFI contracts currently eating it away at the moment as two examples). If you see Labour (and UK democracy as a whole) as a lost cause then it’s entirely logical and coherent to support the best vehicle to ensure PR, so there’s someone there for you to vote for.

          • Brumanuensis

            And yet you still haven’t demonstrated how UKIP doing well will boost the chances of PR. You have no historical example to support your claim and it’s essentially purely speculative.
            Your ‘subjectivity’ point is very weak. You can’t seriously be arguing that there’s no substantive difference between Labour and the Conservatives. The last four years have conclusively disproven that.

          • i_bid

            My subjective point was to highlight how it colours how you look at one persons actions against another in terms of your rule that anyone supporting parties that support neoliberal policy are automatically that.

            There is no historical example of a fourth party with this level of support – doesn’t mean it can’t happen as tonight proves. I don’t have to demonstrate it – it’s self-evident that a party that supports PR doing well boosts its chances of realising it?

            There is a difference, but not enough to convince me Labour aren’t a lost cause, and that most of what Tories propose now won’t be Labour policy in ten years (we’re already seeing plenty of signs of that, even whilst in opposition: Twigg/Hunt’s line on free schools, Ball’s ‘iron discipline’ + EU benefit restrictions + support for the scandalously low corporation tax…and I could go on…

            But I’d much rather go to bed, as I’ve got to be up in 5.5 hours, and we’ve both made our points.

          • Brumanuensis

            I don’t have to demonstrate it – it’s self-evident that a party that supports PR doing well boosts its chances of realising it?

            No, because I’ll wager that virtually no-one knows that UKIP support PR, so it’s unlikely that they’re attracting the pro-PR vote.

            There is no historical example of a fourth party with this level of support – doesn’t mean it can’t happen as tonight proves

            UKIP’s support + the Lib Dem’s support is roughly the same as the Lib Dem share 2010. That’s not indicative of a major change in composition.

            My subjective point was to highlight how it colours how you look at one persons actions against another in terms of your rule that anyone supporting parties that support neoliberal policy are automatically that.

            But your point doesn’t work. Voting UKIP as a protest against neo-liberalism is far less logical than voting Labour with reservations. The two are not the same.

          • http://batman-news.com Lee Denham

            It was Mr Mandelson who started the idea of privatising Royal Mail years ago m8. When the tories actually did it, all your lot did was to say that the price was too low not that they were against the whole idea

  • Doug Smith

    “UKIP have gone from not standing, to second place finish with over 30% of the vote.”

    There we have it. It’s not going to be a good week for Labour. As the party of opposition Labour should be counting votes by the wheelbarrow load. But I haven’t noticed any enthusiasm for Labour at all, nothing.

    • Brumanuensis

      As has been noted on Twitter, some of those wards had sizeable BNP votes in the days before UKIP stood. I imagine some of that vote has just reshuffled itself.

  • Brumanuensis
  • Brumanuensis

    Labour have held Hetton ward in Sunderland, a Labour – UKIP marginal from 2012. Reportedly the outlook is cautiously optimistic in Harlow, Stevenage and Norwich. The Conservatives appear to have lost Basildon.

    UKIP appear to be doing well in Hull and in Kingston (London).

  • Brumanuensis

    UKIP have gained a seat off Labour in Hull. In Swindon, Labour appear to be holding ground in Swindon.

  • Brumanuensis

    The news from Sunderland is mixed. Labour’s vote is down sharply, due to an increase in UKIP support, but we’ve gained a seat off the Tories, and UKIP haven’t gained any off us.

  • Brumanuensis

    Swindon doesn’t seem likely to change hands. UKIP gain a councillor off the Tories in Basildon.

  • Brumanuensis

    Labour lose Pitsea North West in Basildon to UKIP:

    UKIP – 45.1%
    LAB – 35.4%
    CON – 16.7%
    LDEM – 2.8%

  • Brumanuensis

    On more positive news, the BBC are reporting that Labour seem to doing well in Tower Hamlets and Croydon. That bodes well for the London boroughs.

  • Brumanuensis

    BBC West Midlands appear to be confirming my anecdotal observation from central Brum that turnout is up.

  • Brumanuensis

    UKIP win a seat off the Tories in Broxbourne:

    Hoddesdon Town & Rye Park (Broxbourne) Result:
    UKIP – 41.4%
    CON – 40.1%
    LAB – 18.5%

  • Brumanuensis

    Labour have gained Gorse Hill and Pinehurst off the Tories, in Swindon.

    And Longbridge in Brum, oof!

    LAB – 31.7%
    CON – 30.4%
    UKIP – 29.3%
    GRN – 4.5%
    LDEM – 3.0%
    TUSC – 1.0%

  • Dan

    These results are looking like a disaster. I honestly think they’re going to slip behind the Tories in the projected national vote for the locals (and possibly third place in the Euros).

    • Brumanuensis

      Not the Euros. That would be in complete contradiction of all the opinion polling. Locals is unlikely, due to the London vote and the urban metropolitan areas.

    • John Ruddy

      Projected national share from the BBC:
      Lab 32%, Con 28% UKIP 15% LD 16%

  • Brumanuensis

    As of 1.10 am, the overall balance:

    Labour +2
    Conservatives -3
    UKIP +3
    Lib Dems – 2

  • Brumanuensis

    Sandwell is looking good, here in the West Midlands. The BBC are reporting that Labour have gained Wedesbury North.

  • Brumanuensis

    An oddity from Peterborough – where UKIP are doing well:

    Stanground Central (Peterborough) Result:
    CON – 40.2%
    LAB – 34.1%
    ENGD – 25.7%

    That’s the English Democrats there in third place. It’s a Conservative hold, btw.

  • Brumanuensis

    Two gains for UKIP in Rotherham and another three-way marginal emerges:

    Dinnington (Rotherham) Result:
    UKIP – 35.2%
    LAB – 32.5%
    IND – 32.3%

    Rotherham West (Rotherham) Result:
    UKIP – 44.0%
    LAB – 42.9%
    CON – 7.0%
    RESPECT – 6.1%

  • Brumanuensis

    Labour have gained the University ward of the Lib Dems in Hull. Elsewhere, we’ve held Rotherham East.

    In Brum, the Lib Dems have held Sheldon. That augurs well for John Hemming next year. UKIP finish second.

  • Brumanuensis

    Despite the poor result in Swindon, the swing from Conservative to Labour is around 5%, enough to win Swindon South next year, if repeated, as Mark has reported.

  • Brumanuensis

    The Conservatives have lost control of Castle Point district council. The Lib Dems are looking jittery in Kingston (Ed Davey’s seat). The BBC summary:

    For those checking the results as they stumble out of the nation’s night spots, here’s the latest tally: Labour has secured 75 seats across the country, having captured seven new ones and lost three of the ones they held. The Conservatives have lost 15 and gained two, leaving them with 54 of those declared so far. UKIP is enjoying a good night, picking up 13 new seats, while a few Lib Dems might be heading to the bar for a consolation drink before the clubs close. They’ve lost four of the nine they were defending that have been declared.

  • Pete

    Lab holds Hartlepool, it’s an error on the part of the BBC. The reporting of results tonight seems oddly shambolic (Guardian and BBC have both made wrong calls on whole councils; seems like trying to predict them before full results is causing problems).

  • Brumanuensis

    UKIP gain a ward in Peterborough, off the Tories:

    Orton Longueville (Peterborough) Result:
    UKIP – 31.7%
    CON – 30.0%
    LAB – 28.2%
    GRN – 6.0%
    TUSC – 4.2%

    UKIP also doing well in Southend:

    Belfairs (Southend) Result:
    CON – 44.7%
    IND – 35.0%
    LAB – 13.0%
    LDEM – 7.3%

    Blenheim Park (Southend) Result:
    UKIP – 31.7%
    CON – 27.1%
    LDEM – 19.7%
    LAB – 14.3%
    GRN – 7.2%

    Kursaal (Southend) Result:
    UKIP – 33.5%
    LAB – 31.5%
    CON – 20.5%
    GRN – 9.3%
    LDEM – 5.2%

    • treborc1

      The Liberals are doing better then I thought they would.

  • Pete

    Guardian is reporting Hartlepool is Lab 19 (nc), Ind 11 (-2), UKIP 2 (+2), Con 3 (nc).

  • Brumanuensis

    More from Southend, where the Conservatives have lost control:

    Prittlewell (Southend) Result:
    UKIP – 34.3%
    CON – 30.1%
    LDEM – 21.1%
    LAB – 14.5%

  • volcanopete

    Those of us who fought Ukip in last year’s county councils are not surprised.Many of us in the eastern region fully realised the potential threat and have already developed some sort of strategy to stand up to the Ukip bullies.
    We were not listened to but the leadership cannot claim it was not warned.
    The crypto-Stalinists within the party need to do a lot of listening.

    • treborc1

      crypto-Stalinists…. who are those then can you put a few names or are they secret….

  • Brumanuensis

    The Brum result was heralded by our poor performance in the Kingstanding by-election two months ago. The council’s problems with bins haven’t helped either.

    Then again, our seat share in Brum was already so high that it would have been hard to make any gains this year.

    • FMcGonigal

      Popular vote share in Birmingham (but in 2012 we got just over 50%):

      Labour
      43.7%

      Conservative
      22.7%

      Lib Dem
      14.7%

      UKIP
      13.6%

      Green
      3.4%

      Others
      1.9%

  • Brumanuensis

    Jeremy Browne says that UKIP represents ‘two fingers up’ to a ‘hectoring and out-of-touch elite’.

    That’s Jeremy Browne, the son of diplomat Sir Nicholas Browne and a former student at Bedales School, one of the most expensive public schools in England, as well a former MP’s researcher and PR professional, pontificating about a hectoring, out-of-touch elite. My irony-o-meter has melted.

    • http://petermartin2001.wordpress.com Peter Martin

      It doesn’t matter what school anyone went to, what jobs they’ve had, what accent they speak with etc etc.
      The operative words are out-of-touch. MPs can be out-of-touch even if they attended the local comprehensive.
      Being in-touch doesn’t mean that policy is decided on the basis of feedback from sample focus groups. It means having principles and arguing for those principles but recognising that they may not be universally shared.

      • Brumanuensis

        Jeremy Browne ‘is’ the elite. That’s the irony.

        And focus groups are a nonsense to complain about. They’re used precisely because they’re representative of public opinion.

        • http://petermartin2001.wordpress.com Peter Martin

          Just on a point of information: Your alter ego Stafford Cripps was also a part of the Elite. He grew up in a wealthy family and was educated at Winchester College and at University College London. That’s never been too much of a problem for the Labour Party and nor should it be. He and his contemporaries wouldn’t have needed focus groups. They didn’t follow public opinion. They led it.

    • Hugh

      Reminds me of Hague’s put down of Blair during his complaints about the “forces of the establishment”.

      “He’s a forty-something, public school-educated, barrister from Islington, with a two hundred seat majority in the House of Commons. Who does he think is the establishment?”

  • Pete

    Rotherham result: UKIP 44.3%, Lab 40.9%, Con 9.5% unless I’ve missed something somewhere, and despite my tiredness I’m quite sure I’ve not. Very worrying.

  • treborc1

    My wife voted my two grandsons voted. I cannot say whom they voted for it’s highly likely they voted labour, but I’ve not asked.

    I did not vote because I would have voted UKIP and since I was eighteen I’ve voted labour, but being disabled I cannot see a reason to vote for any party.

    I’m not Hard working so really for me to vote for any party would be a waste of time.

    Tories labour and the Liberals are now the party of Hard working if your lucky enough to have a job, if I had voted for any of the big three I would be voting for three parties who see me as less then human.

    The fact is these days with this down turn as it was in the 1930’s I’m waiting for one of the parties to have an idea of how to save money by getting rid of the people who are costing to much. So far according to my job center and my advisers I have tried everything they can think of to get a job.

    In my area my local labour council who pay them selves records amounts of money
    the Cheif exec is paid £180,000 now has a car and driver for 24 hours, 12 other directors are getting over £100,000 and they have come out with a threat carers and cleaners and other low paid peoples are to be placed onto Zero hour contracts including leisure working staff from the leisure center.

    Vote labour why because they are slightly less Tory.

    • JoeDM

      But Welsh councils have always been like that.

      Growing up in South Wales I can always remember jokes & comments about the ‘Taffia’, the Soviet Socialist Republic of xxxxxxxxxx (add your local authority of choice), Poples Republic of xxxxxxxxxxx, etc…

    • Holly

      When Labour get a grasp of how salaries of £180,000 and £100,00 for councillors, while denouncing having to make ‘Tory’ cuts on the services the public need, maybe then you will happily return to voting Labour.
      These kind of salaries/cuts are happening nationwide so add up to a pretty penny.
      The three main parties then seem bemused why we are no longer falling at their feet in thanks.

      • John Ruddy

        Which councillors are on salaries of £180,000 ?

        • Holly

          The one’s in treborc1’s area apparently.

          • gunnerbear

            Err…Holly….tre, was taking about Council Chief Exec’s not councillors.

          • Holly

            Err….Well that makes it more acceptable then eh???
            During all this so called austerity, and the ‘draconian’ cuts???
            While those at the bottom get a hell of a lot less from the pot.

            My apologies for not to knowing that’s how it works, and because he is a chief exec, and not just a councillor, he justifiably merits that substantial amount., and is completely different from a chief exec of, say, a large company.

            I hope the bod is worth every penny they get, over & above a more palatable salary, just to stop fools like me from getting so wound up for thinking if that were the case, then there would be a bit more left over for others.

          • treborc1

            Councilors 2012.

            English County Council – Nottinghamshire – £12,906

            English Unitary Authority – Durham – £13,300

            English Metropolitan District – Birmingham – £16,267

            English Non-Metropolitan District – Bolsover – £9,902

            London Borough – Croydon – £11,239

            Welsh Council – Seven councils pay £13,868, namely Bridgend, Carmarthenshire, Conwy, Monmouthshire, Rhondda Cynon Taff, Torfaen, and Vale of Glamorgan

            Scottish Council – Scottish Borders – £16,932

            Chief exec.

            The figures show the top salary in Wales for that year was earned by Carmarthenshire council’s chief executive, Mark James.

            He took home a salary of £185,365 which included fees and allowances.

            Close behind him was Cardiff council’s chief executive, Jon House, who had a wage packet of £179,663 and Pembrokeshire council’s chief executive, Bryn Parry-Jones, who earned £159,462.

          • Holly

            All adds up to a pretty penny from the finite pot.
            What were the cleaners getting?
            Or the people doing the work on the desks, who deal with the public?
            Or the people caring for the elderly in their homes?
            What is it now…15 minutes, then on to the next one??
            Not paid for the time it takes to get from one home to the next.
            THIS is the kind of thing that Miliband should be pushing…Cuts in council top bods salaries/fees & allowances, to PAY FOR better pay and conditions for the soldiers.
            Who could disagree with that?
            Oh yeah top bods.
            Shame innit.

          • gunnerbear

            Holly,

            I agree with you that some public salaries – especially in the higher ranks of local govt. are obscene, but the point was that Tre’ was saying that the salaries for those sorts of positions are far too high and too often there is a merry-go-round of people moving from one job to another even if they’ve been moved on……

            ….I also agree – Private Eye often highlights it – that some Councillors allowances are also far, far, too high as well.

      • FMcGonigal

        In Birmingham the Council leader has an overall allowance of £66,619.
        This is far more than an average income, however it is a large local authority with a big budget and large (though declining) workforce.
        But it is nowhere near the figures you suggest.

        • Holly

          I agree £66,619 is way more ‘realistic’ than £180,000, but disagree with you that, ‘I’ suggested anything.
          I was replying to treborc1.

          • FMcGonigal

            Yes you were, please accept my humblest apologies.

            treborc1 is referring to Chief Executives and other senior staff, not councillors. That is an issue.

          • treborc1

            No I’ve no issues what so ever with councilors at all, most do a very good job within council for very little reward.

  • Dan

    Anthony Painter: “If this early picture is confirmed, it leaves Labour with a huge strategic problem. Suburbia is not convinced that Labour is economically competent.”

    Dear Lord. Surely even the most blinkered NewLabourite must realise by now that people are not voting UKIP for “economic credibility”? The problem is the exact opposite: people are not convinced Labour are enough of a change from the disastrous status quo which has ripped off most British people over the past 30 years, and so they’re bypassing Labour completely.

    • Danny

      Anthony Painter will take any scenario, data or event and shoehorn it into his New Labour, Blairite, Tory-Lite agenda. He’s best left ignored.

      Admittedly he has struggled with this one though. Labour performs very well in London. Painter’s analysis? Labour has a “London-problem”.

      Erm. Okaaay.

    • Brumanuensis

      It’s an odd thing to write, given that Labour have under-performed in the heartlands, but done well in suburbia.

    • Daniel Speight

      America has the likes of Jeffrey Sachs. France has Thomas Piketty. We have Anthony Painter. Were we short-changed somewhere?

  • DoctorZoidburg

    in Local Elections i usually vote in a non partisan way. The current Council i like so i go with them, but on a National level i will vote on the basis i want out of the EU, i don’t buy into the mantra coming out of lib lab con
    ukip are here, it’s no bad thing, our political system is rotten, it’s patronizing to scapegoat them, or take it for granted they will return to the fold come 2015, if they are taking votes off the others i suggest they stop burying their heads in the sand, and confront the issues all the MSP are trying to avoid

  • Matthew Blott

    Great piece on all this by John Harris in the Grauniad here.

  • Danny

    Devastated about Great Yarmouth. Labour have a cracking PPC in Lara Norris there and these results aren’t exactly great for her. Although UKIP have hit the Tories as much as Labour, and it’s currently got a sitting Tory MP. She could still easily be victorious come May 2015.

  • Monkey_Bach

    Well, look at it this way: Worse things happen at sea. Eeek.

  • Brumanuensis

    It’s a bit odd this year that Labour have under-performed in the North and Midlands, but have actually done quite well in the South (exc. London) and superbly well in London.

    Does anyone know how we topped the poll in both Swindon seats, whilst losing councillors?

    • Dan

      These results have really confirmed the Westminster commentariat do not have a bloody clue about what’s going on in the real world. For years, we’ve been hearing nonstop that Labour’s biggest problem is they haven’t convinced the southern middle class who are supposedly fretting nonstop about the deficit; yet from results in leafy Cambridge and economically-booming London, we can see the affluent are quite happy with Labour, while the working & lower-middle-class in the left-behind north and midlands are completely disenchanted with them and feel they don’t speak up enough for people like them.

      • Brumanuensis

        Completely disenchanted is an exaggeration. We did gain seats in several areas in the North and Midlands, but there are some high-profile exceptions. It’s more that UKIP have taken over the mantel of the protest vote, which tends to harm the main opposition party.

  • Chilbaldi

    Absolutely fantastic destruction of the Lib Dems in London. They are completely finished there. Glad to see the little parasites done for good.

  • Grouchy Oldgit

    A curate’s egg day for Labour. Progress is always welcome, but the reality is that this progress from Brown’s low point of 2010 and after 4 years of austerity government is way too modest. Many that should be supporting Labour aren’t convinced Miliband would support them any more than Blair did. Getting most MPs in 2015 is still possible, but much work is needed to reach out to the doubters. UKIP will no doubt hemorrhage support in 2015 when it’s a straight choice between Cameron and Miliband, the challenge is to ensure the vast majority don’t revert to Tory,

    Eg: consider the private rent cap policy. While a positive step, alone it says it’s OK for the poor to be housed by private landlords, just with slightly more rights than now. I rented privately for a short time after returning to England after several years overseas. It was not an experience I’d wish to repeat and downright degrading compared to the council and owned accommodation I’d known previously. I’d imagine what private renters really want to hear is that Labour would give them the chance of ownership or the security and dignity of a council home. Labour has promised a mass house building program, but where’s the guarantee the bulk won’t end up in the hands of for-profit landlords renting for the highest price they can get away with?

  • Grouchy Oldgit

    scary stuff from France

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