Jowell retakes lead in Labour London Mayor poll – but race is still wide open

29th July, 2014 6:24 pm

London_Thames_Sunset_panorama_-_Feb_2008

The Evening Standard have released their latest polling in the race for Labour’s candidate for London Mayor. Once again, Tessa Jowell maintains her lead amongst all voters, with 12% (up one point since the last poll a month ago) and Diane Abbott remains second with 8%, down one from last month. Doreen Lawrence receives 6%, David Lammy, Sadiq Khan and Andrew Adonis are tied on 4%, while Christian Wolmar, included in the poll for the first time (despite being the only declared candidate) polls 2%.

Far ahead of the candidates is a “none of the above” option with 23% and “don’t know” with 37%. You can see the full table here (click to enlarge):

Standard poll mayor all voters

 

While those results give us some indication of which candidates have the greatest spread of support amongst all voters, Labour’s candidate will actually be chosen by a primary of Labour supporters. When only Labour supporters are taken into account, the results look like this (click to enlarge):

Standard London Mayor poll Labour votersTessa Jowell regains her lead, having lost it to Diane Abbott in last month’s poll. Jowell polls 16% (up two from last month), Abbott 14% (down three), Lawrence 7% (up one), while Lammy (down three), Khan (down two) and Adonis (up one) tie on 6%. Wolmar again polls 2%. With this being Labour voters, fewer choose “none of these” (only 9% are unhappy with the field to choose from), although a similarly high number (34%) have yet to make their mind up.

As I understand it, YouGov polled 1,350 people – which is a standard size for reliable polling. However, of those, only 278 were Labour supporters, who will be the ones voting for Labour’s candidate. With no clear runaway leader, that means pretty much all of them are within the margin of error of each other.

The poll also differs from LabourList’s survey on the subject a few weeks ago. In that, Tooting MP Sadiq Khan’s performance was much better – he topped our survey with 22%. All the other candidates scored similar scores (give or take a couple of percent) to the ones offered by YouGov, except that far fewer had yet to make up their mind and more people selected the “none of these” option – possibly owing to the omission of Christian Wolmar.

As far as we know, Doreen Lawrence has not expressed an interest in running: her name has rather been floated by others and her popularity means she polls well. But who knows? She might yet change her mind.

For frontrunners, it would seem Jowell and Abbott are the two leaders in the race – they have taken the top two places in the YouGov polls without fail so far (if we discount the polls that included Eddie Izzard, who has ruled himself out). Meanwhile, some insiders have been quick to attribute some of the success in the capital at the May elections to Sadiq Khan. Taking that, a London brief in the Shadow Cabinet, and a high popularity with LabourList readers all into account, he could be the dark horse here.

With such a wide field, a fairly even spread of support and only a single declared candidate, the race is far from over yet.

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  • Matthew Blott

    If Dianne Abbott wins then Labour will have ceased to be a serious party.

    • Daniel Speight

      Matthew at times I despair of your generation. Maggie’s children like you, Mark, Emma and the party apparatchiks were born old. If you make the usual move to the right as you get older you will end up on the far right of the Tories I’m quite sure. let’s hope the next generation reverts more to where we expect younger people to be.

      So Dianne makes it not serious. In relation to what I wonder. Boris Johnson being the last Tory candidate? The biggest danger is Jowell being selected and the press really digging* into David Mills’ finances and Jowell’s mock separation from him.

      * Not that much more digging is needed. Whatever happened to that briefcase of Berlusconi money? Did they have to give it back?

      • Doug Smith

        Jowell on her hubby: “although we are separated I have never doubted his innocence”.

        You won’t catch Tessa singing Tammy Wynette’s ‘Stand by Your Man’ at a House of Commons karaoke party.

        • MoodySlayerUK

          They are only separated for political reasons. It was a calculated act to distance herself from both of their financial shenanigans.

  • Doug Smith

    If Jowell is the Labour’s candidate Zac Goldsmith is sure to be the next mayor of London.

  • Ash McGregor

    The interesting figures were the LibDem and Tory supporters’ preferences…

  • Mike B

    The mayoral system will always favour personality over policies. That is why London (largely a Labour town) has a Conservative mayor. Short of going to a London parliament (which I favour) with significant input from the boroughs we need to select a strong potentially popular candidate who is able to implement Labour policies rather than just personal preferences. We had the wrong candidate last time. Let’s not make the same mistake again.

    • treborc1

      Who do you see then as the best person…

      • Mike B

        A good Labour person with a small ego would be a starting point.

        • Dave Roberts

          Alan Johnson. A working class Londoner.

  • Chilbaldi

    Two horse race. Let’s hope the candidate with the greatest mass-appeal amongst all Londoners is successful,

  • nana

    no way should jowell be candidate.abbott has foot in mouth disease.someone to be candidate needs to act as Lord Mayor,decent,honest,and truthful.and should not be used as
    a career move.london at his heart.the clue is in the job title.

  • Dave Roberts

    Se lost to Galloway and the party don’t like losers, except Livingstone of course. He has the backing of the very largely far left NEC which has just elected him again, topping the poll.

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