Ashcroft polling correction puts Labour 3 points ahead in Clegg’s seat

7th February, 2015 1:12 pm

Lord Ashcroft has published a correction polling that he conducted in November of last year, to show that Labour are ahead of the Lib Dems in Nick Clegg’s seat Sheffield Hallam.

nick-clegg-looking-sad

In an article on ConservativeHome he’s explained that a polling company he used (which he doesn’t name) for three sets of constituency polling in Sheffield Hallam, Doncaster North (Ed Miliband’s seat) and Thanet South made errors.

Ashcroft has updated the polling, to show that in November, Labour’s candidate in Sheffield Hallam, Oliver Coppard, had a 3-point lead over Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg. The corrected results read as follows:

Lab 30%, Lib Dems 27% , Conservatives 19%, UKIP 13%, Greens 10%

This makes Ashcroft the second pollster to have Clegg behind in his seat, following Survation’s polling earlier in the week, which showed Labour a full 10 points ahead of the Lib Dems.

Meanwhile, in Thanet South, the corrected polling shows that instead of the Conservatives having a five-point lead as originally suggested, there’s only one point separating the Tories and Ukip:

Conservatives 33%, UKIP 32%, Labour 26%, LibDems 4%, Greens 3%

Meanwhile, Ed Miliband is leading in his constituency Doncaster North, by 30 points:

Labour 55%, UKIP 25%, Conservatives 13%, LibDems 4%, Greens 2%

This doesn’t spell good news for the Tories or for Nick Clegg…

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  • treborc1

    I cannot see why your worried about Ed Miliband seat, he is the leader of labour and boy would he have to be bad to lose his seat.

    But it does show you should be very careful over Cashcroft polls,like it or not he is working full out for the Tories. He’s not a labour saviour working behind the Tory lines.

  • Mike B

    Looks like the Lib Dems will need to pour all their resources for that region into trying to save Clegg’s seat. They don’t have a particularly effective record when they do such tactics. Recently virtually all the LD bigwigs descended on Hornsey and Wood Green and nobody noticed. Mind you to be fair to them (something they rarely are) it was the day of the Charlie Hebdo massacre

  • Paul Richardson

    I have noticed that Cable among others are becoming more vocal in their criticism of the Tories. This may be just senior LD trying to make hay ready for the GE. However, I can’t help wonder whether its also “look at me … I am a Tory-hating successor that could work with Labour once Clegg has gone!” It’ll be interesting to see on election-night how Cable plays it, how visible he is etc… For example, I remember 1997 and Hague being very visible despite the really bad result and being loyal to the party etc… then of course he became leader.

    • PATRICKNEWMAN

      It’s the election, stupid.

  • Malcolm McCandless

    It looks certain after the Ashcroft corrections that the SNP will be the third largest party and that there will be a hung parliament. As has been muted will Labour and the Tories form a grand alliance to thwart the SNP at Westminster? Now that would be very dangerous for Labour in Scotland.

    • A) They wouldn’t do it
      B) There’s no need to do it you can have a minority government
      C) People need to stop hyping up the SNP “Thwart” they are a non entity outside of Scotland. They themselves have one option. Join a coalition with Labour or be irrelevant.
      D) If Labour jumped in with the Tories it wouldn’t do much to their polling in Scotland because if that situation was playing out they would have already been “wiped out” in Scotland.
      E) I find it strange that so many people seem to think we’re on the brink of some revolution or something. We’ve been here before. Under FPTP vote SNP OR Green and you’ll get a Tory Government. We’ve been here before with the SDP.

      • BillFrancisOConnor

        Yup. Vote Green, SNP, Plaid or TUSC and all you’ll end up with is a Tory MP.

        • Well if you vote SNP you’ll get SNP in many instances but you’ll have a Tory Westminster Government. The rest have no chance of making any gains including the Greens.

    • PATRICKNEWMAN

      It could be terminal for Labour outside Scotland too.

  • PATRICKNEWMAN

    3% – is that all – what a disappointment. Must be a few student voters missing from the survey.

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