The electoral challenge: How are Labour performing in by-elections since Corbyn became leader?

ballot_box.jpg

As it is near Christmas you will forgive me if I don’t contribute any carefully thought through prose but instead let some numbers do the talking, and let you draw your own conclusions.

A prominent Corbyn supporter challenged me on Twitter last week about why I wasn’t doing the weekly update on council by-election results I used to post on my own blog until the General Election. The simple answer is that the excellent @britainelects Twitter feed now publishes them in real time as the results come out on each Thursday night.

By way of a round-up, here is the change in Labour vote share in all the council by-elections where there has been a Labour candidate (and there was a Labour candidate in the previous contest so a comparison can be made) since the leadership election in September, grouped by region so you can see the regional pattern.

Eastern (average Labour vote share -4.1%)
Bourn (S Cambridgeshire) +2.9%
Chedgrave & Thurton (S Norfolk) -0.8%
Dedham & Langham (Colchester) -4.3%
Hertford Heath (E Herts) -1.7%
Huntingdon East (Huntingdonshire) -2.9%
Loddon (Norfolk) -8.4%
Rochford (Rochford) -16.0%
Shenfield (Brentwood) -0.7%
S Smallborough (Norfolk) -5.3%
Watton (Norfolk) -5.4%
West (Peterborough) -2.1%

East Midlands (average -5.6%)
Belvoir (S Kesteven) -15.1%
Coal Ashton (NE Derbyshire) -6.7%
Derwent Valley (Derbyshire) -1.7%
Holmewood & Heath (NE Derbyshire) +7.4%
Market Logan (Harborough) -5.9%
Selston (Ashfield) -4.3%
Selston (Nottinghamshire) -13.2%

London (average +3.3%)
Boleyn (Newham) +7.9%
Bryanston & Dorset Square (Westminster) -5.7%
Kensal Green (Brent) -1.0%
Noel Park (Haringey) +7.5%
S Camberwell (Southwark) +9.0%
Woodside (Haringey) +1.9%

North
Howgate (Cumbria) -12.9%

North West (average -5.5%)
Carnforth & Millhead (Lancaster) -2.8%
Clifton (Fylde) -9.6%
Congleton E (E Cheshire) +1.4%
Euxton N (Chorley) +12.7%
Risedale (Barrow in Furness) -24.1%
Tottington (Bury) -10.5%

Scotland (average -8.8%)
Ayr E (S Ayrshire) -7.3%
Blantyre (S Lanarkshire) -7.0%
Dunfermline N (Fife) -18.7%
George Street/Harbour (Aberdeen) -5.4%
Glenrothes W & Kinglassie -9.3%
Irvine Valley (E Ayrshire) -6.3%
Linlithgow (W Lothian) +2.6%
Midstocket/Rosemount (Aberdeen) -11.2%
Rosyth (Fife) -13.2%
Stirling E (Stirling) -11.9%

South East (average -2.6%)
Ash South & Tongham (Guildford) -5.1%
Aylesford Green (Ashford) -32.4%
Chandler’s Ford (Hampshire) +1.9%
Epsom W (Surrey) +2.1%
Goldsworth E (Woking) -1.0%
Goldsworth W (Woking) +1.3%
Grimsbury & Castle (Cherwell) +5.9%
Northfield Brook (Oxford) +2.1%
Sandford & the Wittenhams (S Oxfordshire) -3.7%
Shepperton Town (Spelthorne) -4.8%
Sonning Common (S Oxfordshire) +4.7%

South West (average no change in Labour vote)
Clifton with Maidenway (Torbay) -9.0%
Kinson South (Bournemouth) +7.0%
Rodwell (Dorset) -7.3%
Salisbury St Edmund & Milford (Wiltshire) +5.6%
Totnes (South Hams) +3.7%

Wales (average +0.1%)
Bettws (Newport) +6.8%
Dewi (Gwynedd) -0.2%
Gogarth (Conwy) +1.4%
Kidwelly (Carmarthenshire) -10.6%
Ogmore Vale (Bridgend) +3.7%
Riverside (Cardiff) -0.8%

West Midlands (average -10.6%)
Belle Vue (Shropshire) -28.7%
Blakebrook & S Habberley -1.7%
Meole (Shropshire) -11.0%
Stourport-on-Severn (Worcs) -0.8%

Yorkshire & Humberside
Pontefract N (Wakefield) +0.1%

More from LabourList

DONATE HERE

Do you value LabourList’s coverage? We need your support.

Our independent journalists have been on the ground during this local and by-election campaign, which marks the first key electoral test of Keir Starmer’s government. 

We’ve been out and about with Labour activists and candidates across the country from Bristol to Hull, and will soon be heading to Cambridgeshire and Lancashire – as well as Runcorn and Helsby. We’ve also polled readers for their views on the campaign.

LabourList relies on donations from readers like you to continue its fair, fast, reliable and well-informed news and analysis. We don’t have party funding or billionaire owners. 

If you value what we do, set up a regular donation today.

DONATE HERE