Sometimes the conventional wisdom is correct

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

I often prefer to shy away from the conventional wisdom. Often it can mask something much more interesting. It’s also nice to feel that you’ve hit upon something that everyone else has missed, striking out on your own in opposition to pre-conceived notions. Sometimes though, it’s impossible to get past the conventional wisdom, because everything you’ve seen and read and everyone you’ve spoken to points towards it being correct. This is one of those times.

The leadership campaign will be won by a Miliband, and no-one can possibly “know” the result until the ballots have been counted. You can have a hunch (as I’m sure almost everyone reading this will do), but that hunch will more likely than not be reflective of your own bias (complete with optimism or pessimism).

I was surprised then to read a post by Dan Hodges over at Labour Uncut this morning in which he stated, categorically and without any hesitation, that David Miliband “has won”. That certainly got my attention (which was surely the point) – but unless Dan Hodges has some level of inside information that I don’t share, then I can’t agree with him, not until some point between 4 and 5pm on Saturday when myself, Dan and everyone else will find out the result for real. The Fabian’s Sunder Katwala was scathing in his criticism of the post, which he called “complete nonsense, and at times self-contradictory” – I wouldn’t go as far as Sunder has, but I certainly don’t see what Dan can point to other than a strong hunch. Not that there’s anything wrong with a hunch, but they can cause problems when presented as fact.

An honest assessment of the facts (such as they are), is that the available evidence (MPs’ support and various opinion polls) suggests David Miliband is likely to be leading after the first round. The race has tightened in recent weeks (something both pollsters and bookies can agree on), and no-one knows for sure how second and third preferences will break in the later stages of the contest. What little evidence there is suggests that Ed Miliband may have a slight advantage on second preferences – that he may be less “marmite” than his brother – but there isn’t a strong or consistent body of factual evidence to back that up. That’s a hunch, nothing more or less – that’s why I riddled it with caveats.

My prediction is that this race, with all of its twists and turns, will come down to third or even fourth preferences. I’m not willing to guess (for that’s all it would be) on who will win the leadership contest – it’d take someone with something more than a hunch to put their credibility on the line for a close run race like this with a prediction like that…