Don’t fall for the big Con con

On May 2^nd 2010, the last Sunday before the general election, David Cameron was interviewed on the Andrew Marr programme. In his final answer – in response to the less than intimidating question posed by Marr, “You’re on a roll, aren’t you?” –  he replied, “I think we’ve got some momentum now to go into these last few days.”

But the confidence was just for show. Behind the scenes the Conservatives were making serious and substantial preparation for coalition government. We now know they were studying the Liberal Democrat manifesto in detail to see how easily a deal could be done when, as the Tories expected, they fell short of winning a majority.

So when you read in the past few days that Conservative morale was high and that the mood was very positive as the last year of this parliament began, it would have been wise to grab a large fistful of salt.

The cracks are already beginning to show. After an intense row breaking out between cabinet ministers recently, do we really think that all is sunny in the blue camp? Most observers accept that tension between Theresa May and Michael Gove is an anticipatory proxy war for a future leadership contest between the Home Secretary and the Chancellor, George Osborne. The candidates are clearly in a hurry. It’s almost as if they expect a vacancy to arise quite soon.

Osborne, Boris Johnson and any other potential leadership candidates face a big Theresa May problem. According to a poll of Conservative Home readers Ms May now has a 12 point lead in popularity over her nearest competitor. Her recent formidable speech to the Police Federation surprised many. As an intervention it may turn out to have a similar effect to Barack Obama’s speech to the Democratic Party convention in 2004, when the then largely unknown state senator turned into a future Presidential contender overnight.

As a student of US politics Osborne will know how dangerous it can be for established figures when an unexpected rival wins sudden popularity. If Gove had not already confirmed his reputation for being a bit of a blabbermouth over lunch and dinner tables, you might almost have suspected that Osborne put him up to denouncing the Home Secretary in this way.

Ms May does not have a large coterie of supporters at Westminster, and few obvious cheerleaders in the press. But her essentially grown-up and serious demeanour sets her apart from the more undergraduate instincts of her male rivals. Even at the weekend “friends of Gove” were briefing rather pettily that “David and George (Osborne) are scared of her (Theresa)”, which rather makes my point for me.

This “blue on blue” warfare is a useful reminder to Labour that, as in 2010, a lot of seeming Tory confidence is, in fact, a bit of an act. This is not really the behaviour of people who think that David Cameron is about to be safely returned to office. As the long eleven month election campaign rolls on Labour supporters would be wise not to panic or be duped by assertions of inevitable Tory victory – the blue team clearly don’t believe in that themselves. And there were enough signs in the local elections to suggest that Labour candidates can win in the areas that will matter.

It will be a long and at times depressing slog on the way to May 7^th 2015. Current talk of “draining swamps” and “dawn raids” on schools tells you that some people will be prepared to sink pretty low to ward off the populism of Ukip in the search for votes. Labour should concentrate on describing how a fairer economy will work for more people, and leave the student politics to others.