Ed gives the country hope for the future of the NHS

LabourList readers said this year’s conference should be about the NHS.  They were right and it looks like they could leave Manchester happy.

This morning’s papers lead on an expected announcement from Ed Miliband that Labour will increase NHS spending if they are returned to government next May through a mansion tax on homes worth over £2 million and a windfall tax on the profits of tobacco firms.

Eight months out and party members in Manchester know that the next election needs to be fought on the Party’s strengths and the concerns of voters if it is to have a chance of victory.

Current polling gives Labour an impressive 18 point lead over the Conservatives on the handling of the NHS, while a summer of ‘NHS in crisis’ stories has pushed the issue to the top of the public’s agenda.

All the indicators point to the NHS heading towards a significant financial crisis in the coming years, with apredicted budget shortfall of £2 billion this year alone.

More money for the NHS through a tax on wealthy homes and tobacco firms will find support within the conference hall and, importantly, the majority of people outside it too.  The NHS is a national institution and one that people are happy to recieve more money so long as it remains world-class and free at the point of use.

Critics will say the money will not be enough to plug the gap in the NHS’s budget.  On its own they are right.  However, it is a significant step in the right direction and Ed Balls’s promise to “do what it takes” to save the NHSgives wriggle room for other revenues streams to be considered.

Expect Andy Burnham to say in his speech tomorrow that the additional funding should also be considered in the context of the savings brought about through his ten-year plan to bring health and social care services together – a plan that, although still absence of detail, is one of the boldest to emerge from the shadow cabinet.

For months patient groups have called for a proper debate on the future funding of health and social care.  After today’s speech Ed can now show that he is willing to take part in this debate and galvanize the support of organisations that can prove important allies in an election campaign.

The announcement gives Ed collateral at Prime Minister’s Questions (where he is often challenged by the Conservatives on whether Labour would have increased NHS spending after 2010) and in response to the NHS Chief Executive’s report on the long-term future of the NHS that is expected in October.

Next week in Birmingham David Cameron will be under pressure to match this increase in health spending or risk once again being seen to break his personal vow to the NHS.  Promises of more money for the health system are unlikely to be as popular on the fringes in Birmingham than they are here in Manchester.

I have said before that if Miliband wants to make the NHS a centrepiece of Labour’s election campaign then he needs to combine a big idea with a doorstep friendly pledge.  The creation of a national health and care service and a boost in NHS spending seems like a good start to me.