It seems very unlikely looking at the present farce of the leadership elections that either Jeremy Corbyn or Owen SMith will become the PM if the next General Election isn’t held before 2020.
However if the Tories reflect on the narrow Labour victory in 1964 followed by a 100-plus majority gained only two years later, then they may well take us to the polls sometime in 2017 hoping to strengthen their position. In that scenario it looks incredibly bad for us.
What is undoubtedly worse for Labour is that the “broad church” umbrella that kept us protected and joined together has now been shattered.
The split is coming and I cannot see any rational argument that says that it won’t. That said, as a member for nearly 40 years, I remain optimistic.
The party at Westminster no longer represents a membership that has become the much-desired mass movement.
And Labour under Jeremy has moved decisively to the left. Apart from on one or two issues – admittedly important ones – Smith and and Angela Eagle both agreed they didn’t have many problems with most of the current policies, but the schism between the leader and Labour MPs became a crisis that culminated in a no-confidence vote.
But, under a one-member-one-vote leadership election system, that was not a call to be acknowledged by Jeremy.
However there might be a slim chance of Labour success if Jeremy wins this summer’s contest because that would precipitate the upheaval necessary to change the present logjam of a leader supported by the majority of the membership but opposed by the majority of MPs.
A Smith victory would see another re-run of the Ed Miliband era and would certainly hand the Tories yet more years in office. More of the same is exactly what we least want. To be frank, more of the nasty politics that has also developed at the same time ought to equally be avoided.
Smith, apart from being ordinary of course, is very much the mediocre choice to replace Jeremy. His lack of leadership experience makes Jeremy look like Harold Wilson, and his lack of a winning image (“not even a legend in his own household”) makes him the quiet man of Labour.
Why, oh why, did the coup plotters pick Owen?
A victory for Jeremy would be the catalyst to tell those drip-drip resigner MPs that it is either time to set aside your differences or it’s time to go.
Sarah Champion has set a great example by un-resigning (sorry about that word), it would be great if a few more could follow. Those of us who want to back Jeremy need also to sadly appreciate that, in reality, perhaps he isn’t the guy to lead Labour to an election victory.
Jeremy has now established Labour firmly as a party of the Left and that will be his legacy. After the last 12 months of a rollercoaster ride, is not a small one.
But I think we will have to look again at a fresh Leader sometime in 2017, if there is a snap election, to be the actual candidate to win for us and to go on to become a Prime Minister.
So, although I regret to say that I don’t think Jeremy will become Prime Minster, by choosing him to be leader now we can see the party re-unite and continue building up for the future.
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