Council by-elections: Labour gain seat in North Somerset

Labour have gained a seat in last night’s only council by-election.

Labour’s vote share leapt up over 20 points in last night’s vote, which saw the party take a ward previously held by a local interest party. The Tories came in second, just four points behind, and the Lib Dems were a distant third – 20 points behind Labour.

The results, which come via Britain Elects, come as polls show the gap between Labour and the government tightening. YouGov give Labour a one point lead, whereas Guardian/ICM polling shows the race between the two major parties as neck and neck.

In an election modelling forecast, we would see another hung parliament were the general election rerun tomorrow.

Labour would have the largest vote share, by just 0.2 points. Both parties would be shy of a working majority, and the Tories would still be the largest group in Westminster.

Labour would take an extra 19 seats, the Electoral Calculus predicts, leaving the party on 281 seats, and the Tories would lose 20, leaving them on 298.

In a council by-election earlier in the week, the Tories held onto a ward in Scarborough.

Tuesday’s vote saw Labour’s vote share rise 20 points however, within a parliamentary seat that the party must take next time around to form a government. The Scarborough and Whitby constituency is currently held by Tory minister Robert Goodwill.

North Worle, North Somerset:
Labour gain from North Somerset First
Labour: 36.4 per cent (+21.7)
Conservative: 32.4 per cent (+3.7)
Liberal Democrat: 16.4 per cent (+4.1)
Independent: 8.2 per cent (+8.2)
UKIP: 6.7 per cent (-14.6)

No North Somerset First party (-23.1) this time around

Earlier in the week:

Mulgrave, Scarborough:
Conservative hold
Conservative: 46.5 per cent (+14.1)
Labour: 35.2 per cent (+20.8)
Independent: 13.9 per cent (-6.2)
Yorkshire Party: 4.4 per cent (+4.4)

No UKIP (-16.7) and Green (-8.6) this time around