Labour can win by focusing on cost of living not ‘culture war’, poll suggests

The Labour Party can win the next general election by focusing on the cost-of-living crisis and avoiding the ‘culture war’, new research by Opinium has suggested.

According to the polling, carried out for Progressive Britain ahead of the pro-Keir Starmer network’s conference in London on Saturday, 46% of people said cost of living when asked what debate they were “most passionate about at the moment”.

The cost of living came first, above the NHS, the war in the Ukraine and climate change. 6% said they were “passionate” about whether or not trans women should participate in women’s sport, and 6% cited the law around recreational drugs.

Researchers found that 48% of those surveyed preferred Labour’s plan for a windfall tax on oil and gas companies to help households pay for spiralling energy costs, compared to 15% who preferred the government’s existing policy. A paper published on Saturday set out five key findings of the research:

1. “Labour has made significant progress since last summer and is now two points ahead of the Conservatives in our large sample poll. One in ten voters who supported the Tories at the last election are now switching straight to Labour;
2. “However, the main driver behind this has been voter disappointment with the Conservatives rather than renewed enthusiasm for the Labour Party;
3. “Despite polling well as the party of working people, voters still have doubts that Labour can run the economy competently without spending too much money. While Labour has made some progress on the economy, it is still the biggest hesitation target voters have about backing the party;
4. “Labour needs to use its achievable and affordable plans on the cost of living to demonstrate to target voters that the party will improve their lives while being fiscally responsible; and
5. “Voters will only hear about Labour’s plans, and be reassured on spending, through repetition. The party needs to maintain discipline in focusing on the cost of living crisis and avoid the attempts by its opponents to knock it off message with culture war debates.”

Head of political polling at Opinium Chris Curtis told the conference on Saturday: “Labour’s lead in last week’s local elections would have been good enough to put Keir Starmer into Downing Street.

“However, our report makes it clear that the Conservative voters that Labour needs to win over will only make the shift in a general election if they are convinced Labour can competently run the economy.”

Opinium interviewed 4,000 people between April 14th and 26th for Progressive Britain ahead of the conference, which featured contributions from Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy and Shadow Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson alongside others.

Commenting following the publication of the research, Progressive Britain director Nathan Yeowell said: “The local elections results squared with my experience on the doorstep: people are listening and willing to vote Labour.

“But we can’t rely on Johnson to keep messing up, we have to come forward with a relatable cost of living programme for the current crisis, and a vision for work, jobs and security that people can believe in for the next election.”