Jackie Baillie: Labour is now winning back voters it lost to the SNP

Deputy Scottish Labour leader Jackie Baillie has said SNP voters who were once Labour voters are “coming back to us” in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, in an exclusive interview with LabourList.

The seat is currently held by Margaret Ferrier, who was elected as an SNP MP but had the whip suspended in October 2020 and now sits as an independent. Ferrier was suspended from the commons for breaching lockdown rules and a recall petition signed by 15% of her constituents triggered a by-election.

Ferrier has said she will not be standing again. Labour’s candidate is Michael Shanks, a local teacher and charity worker. Labour’s Ged Killen held the seat between 2017 and 2019 before losing to Ferrier by 5,230 votes.

In an interview  before the October 5th by-election in the seat, Baillie said that while out campaigning she had encountered “a lot of SNP [to Labour] switchers” who will now be voting for Shanks.

Baillie said while she was “not going to be complacent”, a win in Rutherglen would be “translatable” and would indicate the possibility of further Labour gains in Scotland.

“At the start of the year I had six target [Westminster] seats [in Scotland] and I might have thought on a good day that will get to ten”, said Baillie, noting that recent polling suggests Scottish Labour is on track to win more than 20 seats from its current base of one, which she describes as “incredible”. 

Labour lost 40 of the 41 parliamentary seats it held in Scotland at the 2015 general election. It is also currently in opposition at Holyrood, where  it has 22 MSPs to the governing SNP’s 64.

Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:

SNP: 37% (=)
LAB: 35% (+1)
CON: 17% (=)
LDM: 6% (-3)

Via @Survation, 18 Aug.
Changes w/ 23-28 Jun.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) August 23, 2023

“We will work really really really hard to win every seat,” said Baillie, who said she saw a desire amongst the Scottish public for a “grown-up” politics of “cooperation”  that Labour offered at Westminster and Holyrood.

“People are genuinely disappointed” with the SNP’s record in government, which has seen Scotland “go backwards”, Baillie told LabourList.

Keir Starmer is “popular” in Rutherglen, she said, and Baillie notes that he “went down a storm” at a recent townhall appearance alongside Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar. 

“A win in Rutherglen means that Keir Starmer can win in every part of the country. That the Labour party’s recovery in Scotland doesn’t stop at Rutherglen, doesn’t even stop at the general election, focused though I am on that, but actually can carry us forward into the Scottish parliament elections two years after.”

Baillie continued: “A win here sets us up, delivers momentum, makes people understand that Keir Starmer is actually the PM in waiting, and that we can win across the whole country. So the stakes are high.”