A string of seats last won by Labour under former Prime Minister Tony Blair are expected to be among the most marginal Labour gains at the next general election, according to the latest polling from YouGov.
The pollster’s MRP poll and analysis suggests Labour would win 403 seats when voters if a general election were held tomorrow, with the Conservatives tumbling to just 155.
Should such a result be replicated at an election, it would give the Conservatives their worst defeat since 1906.
Labour, with their third best haul of seats in the House of Commons after 1997 and 2001, would have a majority of 154, gaining more than 200 seats versus the 2019 election.
According to the poll, the most marginal battlegrounds of the election include a string of seats that last elected Labour in 2005 under Tony Blair.
These include Gravesham, Finchley and Golders Green, Redditch, Forest of Dean and Cannock Chase.
However, traditionally Conservative seats are also among those expected to fall to Labour come election day.
Cities of London and Westminster, the new Penrith and Solway constituency, Chelsea and Fulham, Hexham, Broxbourne and Worthing West – currently the seat of Father of the House Sir Peter Bottomley – are all forecast to be Labour gains by the MRP poll.
In Scotland, the SNP is forecast to lose a number of seats to Labour by a narrow margin, including Livingston, Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch, East Renfrewshire and Glenrothes and Mid Fife.
Our analysis suggests Scotland has the second highest proportion of projected gains with margins of less than 5%.
Around a third of seats predicted to turn red in Scotland, the East of England and the South East have a margin of predicted victory, even on strong current Labour pollling, of less than 5%.
Full list of forecast Labour gains by margin
| Constituency | Expected result | Margin of victory over Tory or SNP |
| Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch | Labour gain from SNP | 0% |
| Broxbourne | Labour gain from Conservatives | 0% |
| Bromley and Biggin Hill | Labour gain from Conservatives | 0% |
| Harwich and North Essex | Labour gain from Conservatives | 0% |
| Monmouthshire | Labour gain from Conservatives | 0% |
| Basildon and Billericay | Labour gain from Conservatives | 1% |
| Croydon South | Labour gain from Conservatives | 1% |
| Finchley and Golders Green | Labour gain from Conservatives | 1% |
| Beverley and Holderness | Labour gain from Conservatives | 1% |
| Ashford | Labour gain from Conservatives | 1% |
| Banbury | Labour gain from Conservatives | 1% |
| Ribble Valley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 1% |
| Redditch | Labour gain from Conservatives | 1% |
| Livingston | Labour gain from SNP | 1% |
| Forest of Dean | Labour gain from Conservatives | 2% |
| North East Somerset and Hanham | Labour gain from Conservatives | 2% |
| East Renfrewshire | Labour gain from SNP | 2% |
| Edinburgh East and Musselburgh | Labour gain from SNP | 2% |
| Chatham and Aylesford | Labour gain from Conservatives | 2% |
| North West Leicestershire | Labour gain from Conservatives | 2% |
| Tamworth | Labour gain from Conservatives | 3% |
| North West Cambridgeshire | Labour gain from Conservatives | 3% |
| Romford | Labour gain from Conservatives | 3% |
| Staffordshire Moorlands | Labour gain from Conservatives | 3% |
| Cannock Chase | Labour gain from Conservatives | 3% |
| Great Yarmouth | Labour gain from Conservatives | 3% |
| Glenrothes and Mid Fife | Labour gain from SNP | 3% |
| Edinburgh North and Leith | Labour gain from SNP | 3% |
| North Warwickshire and Bedworth | Labour gain from Conservatives | 3% |
| South Derbyshire | Labour gain from Conservatives | 3% |
| Earley and Woodley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 3% |
| Kettering | Labour gain from Conservatives | 4% |
| Folkestone and Hythe | Labour gain from Conservatives | 4% |
| Morecambe and Lunesdale | Labour gain from Conservatives | 4% |
| Glasgow North East | Labour gain from SNP | 4% |
| Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | Labour gain from SNP | 4% |
| Lowestoft | Labour gain from Conservatives | 4% |
| Portsmouth North | Labour gain from Conservatives | 4% |
| Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard | Labour gain from Conservatives | 4% |
| Bracknell | Labour gain from Conservatives | 4% |
| York Outer | Labour gain from Conservatives | 5% |
| Kilmarnock and Loudoun | Labour gain from SNP | 5% |
| Chelsea and Fulham | Labour gain from Conservatives | 5% |
| Harrow East | Labour gain from Conservatives | 5% |
| East Kilbride and Strathaven | Labour gain from SNP | 5% |
| Hexham | Labour gain from Conservatives | 5% |
| Amber Valley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 5% |
| Stourbridge | Labour gain from Conservatives | 5% |
| Paisley and Renfrewshire South | Labour gain from SNP | 5% |
| St Austell and Newquay | Labour gain from Conservatives | 5% |
| Buckingham and Bletchley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 5% |
| Sherwood Forest | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Southend West and Leigh | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Bexleyheath and Crayford | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Cities of London and Westminster | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Stafford | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| South Basildon and East Thurrock | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Worthing West | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Dartford | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Gravesham | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Rugby | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Weston-super-Mare | Labour gain from Conservatives | 6% |
| Hemel Hempstead | Labour gain from Conservatives | 7% |
| Penrith and Solway | Labour gain from Conservatives | 7% |
| Basingstoke | Labour gain from Conservatives | 7% |
| Stoke-on-Trent South | Labour gain from Conservatives | 7% |
| Mid and South Pembrokeshire | Labour gain from Conservatives | 7% |
| Hitchin | Labour gain from Conservatives | 7% |
| Glasgow East | Labour gain from SNP | 7% |
| Harlow | Labour gain from Conservatives | 8% |
| West Dunbartonshire | Labour gain from SNP | 8% |
| Colchester | Labour gain from Conservatives | 8% |
| Glasgow South West | Labour gain from SNP | 8% |
| Swindon North | Labour gain from Conservatives | 8% |
| Gillingham and Rainham | Labour gain from Conservatives | 8% |
| Northampton South | Labour gain from Conservatives | 8% |
| North East Derbyshire | Labour gain from Conservatives | 9% |
| Burton and Uttoxeter | Labour gain from Conservatives | 9% |
| Pendle and Clitheroe | Labour gain from Conservatives | 9% |
| Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West | Labour gain from SNP | 9% |
| Mansfield | Labour gain from Conservatives | 9% |
| Southend East and Rochford | Labour gain from Conservatives | 9% |
| Midlothian | Labour gain from SNP | 9% |
| Wellingborough and Rushden | Labour gain from Conservatives | 9% |
| Rochester and Strood | Labour gain from Conservatives | 9% |
| Bournemouth West | Labour gain from Conservatives | 9% |
| Nuneaton | Labour gain from Conservatives | 9% |
| Dudley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 10% |
| Halesowen | Labour gain from Conservatives | 10% |
| Altrincham and Sale West | Labour gain from Conservatives | 10% |
| Welwyn Hatfield | Labour gain from Conservatives | 10% |
| Macclesfield | Labour gain from Conservatives | 11% |
| Bangor Aberconwy | Labour gain from Conservatives | 11% |
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | Labour gain from SNP | 11% |
| Dunfermline and Dollar | Labour gain from SNP | 12% |
| Plymouth Moor View | Labour gain from Conservatives | 12% |
| Airdrie and Shotts | Labour gain from SNP | 12% |
| Clwyd East | Labour gain from Conservatives | 12% |
| Dover and Deal | Labour gain from Conservatives | 12% |
| Bridgend | Labour gain from Conservatives | 12% |
| Selby | Labour gain from Conservatives | 13% |
| Bolton West | Labour gain from Conservatives | 13% |
| Stockton West | Labour gain from Conservatives | 13% |
| Shrewsbury | Labour gain from Conservatives | 13% |
| Rushcliffe | Labour gain from Conservatives | 14% |
| Crawley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 14% |
| Wrexham | Labour gain from Conservatives | 14% |
| Carlisle | Labour gain from Conservatives | 14% |
| Camborne and Redruth | Labour gain from Conservatives | 15% |
| Coatbridge and Bellshill | Labour gain from SNP | 15% |
| Thurrock | Labour gain from Conservatives | 15% |
| Bournemouth East | Labour gain from Conservatives | 15% |
| Clwyd North | Labour gain from Conservatives | 15% |
| Ossett and Denby Dale | Labour gain from Conservatives | 15% |
| Bathgate and Linlithgow | Labour gain from SNP | 15% |
| Gloucester | Labour gain from Conservatives | 15% |
| Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | Labour gain from Conservatives | 16% |
| Watford | Labour gain from Conservatives | 16% |
| Scarborough and Whitby | Labour gain from Conservatives | 16% |
| Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke | Labour gain from SNP | 16% |
| Bassetlaw | Labour gain from Conservatives | 16% |
| Bishop Auckland | Labour gain from Conservatives | 16% |
| Erewash | Labour gain from Conservatives | 16% |
| South Ribble | Labour gain from Conservatives | 17% |
| Colne Valley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 17% |
| Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme | Labour gain from Conservatives | 17% |
| Penistone and Stocksbridge | Labour gain from Conservatives | 17% |
| Milton Keynes Central | Labour gain from Conservatives | 17% |
| Hamilton and Clyde Valley | Labour gain from SNP | 17% |
| East Worthing and Shoreham | Labour gain from Conservatives | 17% |
| Ashfield | Labour gain from Conservatives | 17% |
| Milton Keynes North | Labour gain from Conservatives | 17% |
| Loughborough | Labour gain from Conservatives | 18% |
| Stevenage | Labour gain from Conservatives | 18% |
| Uxbridge and South Ruislip | Labour gain from Conservatives | 18% |
| Southport | Labour gain from Conservatives | 18% |
| Newcastle-under-Lyme | Labour gain from Conservatives | 18% |
| Chipping Barnet | Labour gain from Conservatives | 18% |
| Glasgow North | Labour gain from SNP | 18% |
| East Thanet | Labour gain from Conservatives | 18% |
| Filton and Bradley Stoke | Labour gain from Conservatives | 19% |
| Telford | Labour gain from Conservatives | 19% |
| Truro and Falmouth | Labour gain from Conservatives | 19% |
| Leeds South West and Morley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 19% |
| Vale of Glamorgan | Labour gain from Conservatives | 19% |
| Scunthorpe | Labour gain from Conservatives | 19% |
| Spen Valley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 20% |
| Rossendale and Darwen | Labour gain from Conservatives | 20% |
| Worcester | Labour gain from Conservatives | 20% |
| Norwich North | Labour gain from Conservatives | 20% |
| Blackpool North and Fleetwood | Labour gain from Conservatives | 20% |
| Wolverhampton North East | Labour gain from Conservatives | 20% |
| Stroud | Labour gain from Conservatives | 20% |
| Barrow and Furness | Labour gain from Conservatives | 21% |
| Rutherglen | Labour gain from SNP | 21% |
| Shipley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 21% |
| Wycombe | Labour gain from Conservatives | 21% |
| Broxtowe | Labour gain from Conservatives | 21% |
| Stoke-on-Trent North | Labour gain from Conservatives | 22% |
| Hendon | Labour gain from Conservatives | 22% |
| Corby and East Northamptonshire | Labour gain from Conservatives | 22% |
| Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes | Labour gain from Conservatives | 23% |
| Rother Valley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 23% |
| Eltham and Chislehurst | Labour gain from Conservatives | 23% |
| Hastings and Rye | Labour gain from Conservatives | 23% |
| Calder Valley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 23% |
| Lancaster and Wyre | Labour gain from Conservatives | 23% |
| Swindon South | Labour gain from Conservatives | 24% |
| Darlington | Labour gain from Conservatives | 24% |
| Leeds North West | Labour gain from Conservatives | 24% |
| Redcar | Labour gain from Conservatives | 25% |
| Keighley and Ilkley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 25% |
| Ipswich | Labour gain from Conservatives | 25% |
| Tipton and Wednesbury | Labour gain from Conservatives | 25% |
| Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice | Labour gain from Conservatives | 26% |
| Bolsover | Labour gain from Conservatives | 27% |
| Derby North | Labour gain from Conservatives | 27% |
| Wolverhampton West | Labour gain from Conservatives | 27% |
| Southampton Itchen | Labour gain from Conservatives | 27% |
| Mid Cheshire | Labour gain from Conservatives | 27% |
| Crewe and Nantwich | Labour gain from Conservatives | 27% |
| Northampton North | Labour gain from Conservatives | 27% |
| Wakefield and Rothwell | Labour gain from Conservatives | 28% |
| West Bromwich | Labour gain from Conservatives | 28% |
| Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor | Labour gain from Conservatives | 28% |
| Hyndburn | Labour gain from Conservatives | 28% |
| Peterborough | Labour gain from Conservatives | 28% |
| Gedling | Labour gain from Conservatives | 29% |
| Burnley | Labour gain from Conservatives | 29% |
| Blackpool South | Labour gain from Conservatives | 29% |
| Chingford and Woodford Green | Labour gain from Conservatives | 29% |
| High Peak | Labour gain from Conservatives | 29% |
| Lincoln | Labour gain from Conservatives | 29% |
| Walsall and Bloxwich | Labour gain from Conservatives | 29% |
| Bury North | Labour gain from Conservatives | 30% |
| Whitehaven and Workington | Labour gain from Conservatives | 30% |
| Bolton North East | Labour gain from Conservatives | 30% |
| Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy | Labour gain from SNP | 30% |
| Bury South | Labour gain from Conservatives | 31% |
| Stoke-on-Trent Central | Labour gain from Conservatives | 31% |
| Birmingham Northfield | Labour gain from Conservatives | 32% |
| Lothian East | Labour gain from SNP | 33% |
| Leigh and Atherton | Labour gain from Conservatives | 34% |
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