Labour has labelled more than 250 constituencies across the country as “battleground areas”, including almost a dozen seats once thought unwinnable and a defensive campaign in 22 Labour-held seats, LabourList can reveal.
Extensive research by LabourList into an online tool for activists on the party’s website suggests Labour is hoping to gain well over 200 seats.
Our analysis suggests Labour is funnelling activists into a significant offensive campaign, aiming to win around 230 constituencies that the party failed to win or would have lost on new boundaries in 2019.
Some former non-priority seats now battlegrounds
In an apparent sign of party confidence about making headway deep in at least a few swathes of seemingly safe Tory territory, several constituencies listed as “battleground areas” require huge swings to win, in some instances in excess of 20%.
These seats include Aldershot, Harlow, Amber Valley, Redditch, Falkirk and Great Yarmouth.
Of the 211 constituencies labelled by Labour as “non-battleground” seats in a document published last December, our analysis reveals 11 are now listed on the party’s volunteer website as “battleground areas”.
These include North East Somerset and Hanham, the constituency of Jacob Rees-Mogg where former MP and regional mayor Dan Norris is standing, Portsmouth North, held by potential Tory leadership contender Penny Mordaunt, Weston-super-Mare, both Isle of Wight constituencies and Derbyshire Dales.
Labour targeting 177 seats the Tories won in 2019
Some 177 of the 230 were either Tory-held or Tory-held-on-new-boundaries in 2019, while 48 were SNP-held and two Liberal Democrat-held. Labour also hopes to win Brighton Pavilion from the Greens and Ceredigion Preseli from Plaid Cymru.
The way figures are calculated means this offensive list includes a string of seats that have already turned red, however, due to Labour’s recent by-election wins and defections since 2019.
Labour has also lost seats like Rochdale and Hartlepool since 2019, though. The 230 figure includes several seats too where Labour must make progress just to stand still due to boundary changes, as on 2019 results some new constituencies would have fallen to the Tories.
Almost half of the seats that the party is hoping to gain (113) require less than a ten-point swing to win, including Milton Keynes Central, Peterborough, Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy and Macclesfield.
This also includes the seat of Wimbledon, previously held by Labour by Roger Casale between 1997 and 2005 but came less than 700 votes away from ousting Conservative MP Stephen Hammond with a Liberal Democrat at the last general election.
Labour also mounting rearguard action
But alongside Labour’s efforts to notch up the high number of gains it needs to secure a decent majority, it is also directing activists to “battleground” campaigns in Labour-held seats, despite its significant national poll lead.
Of the 252, some 22 are seats that Labour is defending, including several in areas with a larger-than-average Muslim population, where as LabourList recently reported, the party appears worried about a Gaza backlash. Even the party’s seemingly second safest seat is on the list.
Areas such as Canterbury, Bristol Central and Sheffield Hallam also feature on the defensive list, however, with the Greens hoping to win Bristol Central.
The 11 ‘non-battleground’ seats now dubbed ‘battleground areas’
- Bexleyheath and Crayford
- Derbyshire Dales
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
- Isle of Wight East
- Isle of Wight West
- Mid Derbyshire
- North East Somerset and Hanham
- North Northumberland
- Portsmouth North
- Reading West and Mid Berkshire
- Weston-super-Mare
Labour was approached for comment.
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