Despite a rocky start to the campaign marred by scandal and a lost no-confidence vote, Welsh Labour has come out swinging. The party has pulled together to push back hard against the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, and insurgent Reform Party.
Amid all the furore, one might be forgiven for forgetting that Labour in Wales is one of the finest election-winning machines in the United Kingdom.
Activists are pouring into key marginals in this campaign and with now even stretch goals being put in place in two outside-chance constituencies: Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, and Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Recent Survation and Ipsos polls indicate that these two seats are now toss-ups, highlighting Labour’s increasing chances.
After such a challenging start, a comeback is in the making and the Conservative collapse has opened new fronts in this part of the world.
A rocky start
The months leading up to the election were among the most challenging since Devolution began 25 years ago. The new First Minister, Vaughan Gething, faced repeated scandals over leadership campaign donations, and a text leak forced him to sack one of his own Ministers.
Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives seized the opportunity to sow division within Labour ranks. Plaid withdrew from the Senedd cooperation agreement, leaving Labour, which holds 30 out of 60 seats, in a trickier position to pass legislation.
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Plaid cited the scandals but the greater likelihood is their aim to distance themselves for political gain.
The Conservatives played their own hand, a non-binding vote of no confidence (VONC) in the First Minister, with two sacked Labour Ministers missing the vote due to illness. While Gething lost the vote, he vowed to continue.
The opposition’s attempts to create division seemed successful, causing fear among Labour activists and leadership about potential impacts on their election efforts. However, these fears dissipated once the general election campaign found its stride and got fully underway.
Uniting against adversity
Despite these challenges, and fears that the precarious start to the election campaign risked Labour chances in marginal seats, the tide quickly turned.
Counterintuitively, the end of the cooperation agreement and the VONC came at an opportune moment, amidst the most crucial general election in fifteen years. Labour has rallied to wage an offensive campaign almost entirely on the Conservatives’ and Plaid’s home turf.
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The Labour machinery, membership, and activists focused entirely on winning the election. This unity was crucial in preventing internal conflict and ensuring a coordinated campaign. The result has been a noticeable shift in public opinion and polling data, as Labour fights the most offensive ‘Labour Gain’ general election campaign in recent memory.
Positive polling and strong returns
Recent polling and doorstep returns have been encouraging. Ipsos and Survation’s latest analysis indicate Wales may become a Tory-free zone, and Ipsos’ MRP this week suggests Labour could make eight or nine gains. Plaid is trying to win Ynys Mon (Anglesey) and Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) from the Conservatives, but Labour activists have frustrated their efforts by pouring into these seats.
In one Tory-Labour marginal, around 6,000 contacts have been made since the election was called three weeks ago—a staggering number by any standard.
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Activists from safe Labour seats are being directed to marginal constituencies like Monmouthshire and Mid & South Pembrokeshire, which require large swings but are now within reach. The cluster of Tory-held seats in North Wales with much narrower majorities are now, without being too brash, almost foregone conclusions. Their activists now find themselves sent to even further reach seats.
In essence, this fightback represents the campaign everyone dreamed of.
What about Reform?
The resurgence of Welsh Labour is a testament to the party’s resilience and strategy, not to mention motivation to kick out the Tories after 14 years in power. However, challenges remain. The rise of the Reform Party signals potential difficulties ahead, particularly as the focus shifts to the 2026 Senedd elections.
In some Labour heartlands in the Welsh Valleys and urban areas, a small but noticeable number of respondents express a preference for Nigel Farage’s party. Constituency-focused MRP polling supports this trend.
READ MORE: ‘Could a Labour resurgence make Wales Tory-free once more?’
One contact I spoke to said that Reform are appearing in the most deprived areas that we canvass and that these tend to be among the over 50s. This demographic typically supports Labour more in Wales compared to England. While not an immediate concern in this election, it poses a potential threat as focus shifts from Westminster to Cardiff Bay before 2026, when Wales will use its new PR voting system for the first time.
Reform’s manifesto launch on Monday in Merthyr Tydfil points to the priority Wales has in their grand plans to shake up politics and the establishment.
Final Thoughts
The discipline and unity demonstrated during the general election will be crucial for Labour in upcoming battles. Welsh Labour’s comeback story is not just about winning an election; their long-term presence has not been by accident.
It is a reminder of why Labour has been in power for so long in this part of the world: united parties win elections.
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