Ilford North, a semi-urban outer London seat on the other end of the M4 – and then some – may seem an unlikely starting point for discussing campaigning in a mostly rural, leafy Welsh border constituency. However, it is impossible to speak of one without the other when it comes to high-quality campaigning and electioneering.
In 2014, a then little-known prospective parliamentary candidate by the name of Wes Streeting was selected for this Conservative-held seat, well ahead of the 2015 general election. Wes, along with his incredibly active CLP, ruthlessly targeted Redbridge council in the 2014 local elections, gaining control of the council for the first time from the Conservatives.
The campaign then went into the 2015 general election with the feelings of a tip-top by-election campaign. The writer Louie Woodall said of the battle to win Ilford North, “The […] ingredient was an energetic and motivated volunteer base. Every campaign claimed to have a thriving grassroots movement underpinning its success, but in Ilford North this was more than just talk.”
Being as well-organised and staffed as any by-election, with a legion of volunteers rallying behind their candidate, Ilford North achieved a swing of 6.2% against 1.5% nationally and continues to deliver healthy Labour majorities.
Why all this talk of Ilford North? In the 2015 general election, after years of getting hammered by the Tories, a new campaigning standard was set. 70% of voters were contacted in those short years leading to the 2015 general election.
The same, by all accounts, is happening in Monmouthshire in 2024 after decades of Tory dominance – where I understand Jo Stevens, Shadow Wales Secretary, will be campaigning today.
Going ‘over the top’ in the Monmouthshire trenches
Monmouthshire bears all the hallmarks of an Ilford Northian, above-average, success story in the making:
- Council control: Labour won the most councillors on the council in May 2022, ending decades of Tory dominance.
- Popular candidate: Local councillor Catherine Fookes, with deep roots, having lived in the constituency for 22 years.
- Canvassing efforts: Once these factors were in place, the CLP and newly won Councillors proceeded to campaign, canvass, and knock on more doors than any other constituency in all of Wales over 2 years.
Monmouthshire constituency also has one of the highest party memberships of any Welsh constituency. This, added to by members from surrounding safe Labour seats in Newport, Torfaen, and the Welsh Valleys, has provided ample foot soldiers desperately needed for the campaign. Members’ inboxes are stuffed with invitations and canvassing meet up options that span most of the day’s waking hours.
These efforts have not gone unnoticed, with regular appearances by key figures such as current First Minister Vaughan Gething, former First Minister Mark Drakeford, and numerous senior Labour figures from the Shadow Cabinet, underscoring the significance of this general election gain. But there is one more crucial factor driving the campaign’s momentum.
Fortunate in their enemies
One ingredient is pulling in activist numbers that some Labour candidates would potentially kill for: incumbent David TC Davies MP.
The current MP is not only the Conservative Secretary of State for Wales, he is also a dogmatic Brexiteer and uncompromising Thatcherite in this Remain-voting constituency. Such a polarising figure has been a lightning rod for a rigorous campaign, which started two years ago but is now in full, enviable stride just a few weeks out from the general election.
This does not make him easy to defeat, however. As a long-serving MP of nearly 20 years, many local residents have been helped and supported by him over the years. Labour activists and organisers need to not only organise a winning campaign but override his deep incumbency bonus.
The people behind the chair
Behind every successful campaign is a team of dedicated individuals. For watchers of Clarkson’s Farm, for every Clarkson, there is a Caleb. Similarly, for Streeting, it was Matt Goddin, and now for Catherine, it is the charismatic organiser Ryan Smith.
When I reached out to a contact in Welsh Labour’s high command, his was the first name to come up (other than Catherine’s) when discussing the Monmouthshire campaign. After visiting the constituency campaign launch recently, it was noted what an excellent job he did, motivating canvassers in a career-defining constituency battle.
Moreover, the vanguard of any local constituency organisation is Labour Councillors. Many of whom are out on the doorsteps, organising hyper-local campaigns and bringing their own personal votes to bear to deliver Labour victory.
When I spoke to Monmouthshire councillor, Laura Wright, she said: “In May 2022, Labour won their highest number of seats on Monmouthshire County Council since the 1995 local elections. We ran a carefully targeted, high-energy and hard-fought campaign with excellent candidates and stellar volunteers.
“Our election results really helped to demonstrate to residents, as well as to our own membership, that Labour really can win here. […] New Labour representatives are establishing our party’s presence and demonstrating that we’re a viable, visible force in Monmouthshire delivering positive change at a local level and ready to get Cath into Westminster.
“We haven’t stopped campaigning since we won in 2022 and that continual presence and energy has helped us to achieve our key seat status.”
Without the combination of a brilliant candidate, an effective organiser, and experienced local party chieftains, achieving a Labour gain on the night of 4th July would be challenging. As the general election approaches, the stakes continue to be incredibly high.
The big day approaches
General elections are the making – not to mention breaking – of future high-rise politicians, and that does not just apply to candidates. The stakes are high for everyone in the Monmouthshire Constituency Party.
Every activist knows there is a story behind those two words, “Labour Gain”. Let’s hope, and campaign, to make sure Monmouthshire is one among many.
Read more of our 2024 general election coverage here.
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